As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Buffalo (13-3 straight up, 11-5 against the spread) installed as a 6.5-point home favorite vs. Indianapolis for Saturday’s NFL Playoffs curtain jerker at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. The total was 51 points, while the Colts were +260 on the money line.
Buffalo is on fire with a 7-1 SU record and a 8-0 ATS mark in its last eight games. All seven wins have come by double-digit margins, including last week’s 56-26 home win over a Miami team that won 10 games and had to have a victory to make the postseason.
In this eight-game stretch, the Bills have beaten a pair of playoff teams at home in Pittsburgh (26-15) and Seattle (44-34). The lone defeat was a 34-32 loss at Arizona when Kyler Murray found DeAndre Hopkins for a Hail Mary TD pass on the game’s final play.
Buffalo third-year QB Josh Allen has a 21/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his team’s current 8-0 ATS surge. For the season, Allen has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 4,544 yards with a 37/10 TD-INT ratio.
The University of Wyoming product has also run for 421 yards and a team-best eight TDs. Allen averages 4.1 yards per carry for an offense that’s ranked second in the NFL in both total offense and scoring (31.3 points per game). The Bills’ offense also ranks third in the NFL in passing yards.
Buffalo WR Stefon Diggs has proven to be the NFL’s top off-season acquisition. He has 127 receptions for 1,535 yards and eight TDs.
Buffalo is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in eight home games, in addition to compiling a 4-1 spread record in five games as a single-digit home ‘chalk.’
Indianapolis is mired in a 0-3 ATS slide. The Colts played seven games against foes that made the playoffs, going 3-4 both SU and ATS. They own a 5-3 record both SU and ATS in eight road assignments.
Indy’s Philip Rivers remains a very solid NFL QB even at his age, but I think he’s good for at least one interception, probably two, against the Bills.
I like the red-hot Bills laying less than a TD at home.
PICK: Buffalo -6.5