As of early this morning, most books had LSU (17-6 straight up, 11-11-1 against the spread) installed as an 11-point favorite for tonight’s home game vs. Missouri. Will Wade’s team has to be in a foul mood after Saturday’s overtime loss at Auburn on a last-second shot.
Missouri (11-12 SU, 10-13 ATS) has been atrocious on the road this season, losing seven of eight games while going 2-6 ATS. The Tigers have lost all six of their SEC road games by at least 12 points, falling 71-59 at Kentucky, 72-45 at Mississippi St., 88-74 at Alabama, 74-51 at West Virginia, 76-54 at South Carolina and 68-51 at Texas A&M.
LSU is in double bounce-back mode after losing the OT heartbreaker at Auburn, in addition to seeing its 10-game winning streak snapped in last week’s loss at Vandy before going to The Plains. The Bayou Bengals are 12-1 SU at home with six straight wins at the Peter Maravich Assembly Center.
Missouri will be without Jeremiah Tilmon (foot), who is averaging 8.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocked shots per game. Also, Mizzou’s second-leading scorer Mark Smith is ‘questionable’ and will likely be a game-time decision. Smith, who is averaging 10.9 points and 4.3 RPG while making 37.8 percent of his 3-pointers, has missed three games in a row with a back injury.
I’m seeing LSU as a six-point favorite for first-half bets and I like that play, too, albeit for a smaller amount than LSU -11 for the game. With the exception being last week’s game at Vandy when the Commodores couldn’t miss all night, LSU has had double-digit leads at halftime in four of its last five games. The Tigers led by 12 at Auburn on Saturday at intermission, led Ole Miss by 20 at the break, led Alabama by 18 at halftime and led at Texas by 10 at intermission.
LSU rolls to a double-digit victory tonight with Skylar Mays, Emmitt Williams, Trendon Watford and Javonte Smart leading the way.