The NFL landscape has changed drastically over the last few weeks.
Tom Brady is no longer in New England, Philip Rivers has gone to Indianapolis and the Panthers cut Cam Newton.
Circa Sports has been working to provide unique NFL props during the last couple of days, as sports fans and bettors wait for major sports to resume. In order for the props to have action, teams must play all 16 of their regular season games by March 31, 2021.
Brady signed a two-year, $50 million deal with Tampa Bay last Friday, with all $50 million being guaranteed. There is also a no-trade clause in place, as the veteran will play the first snap of his career in a different uniform.
Oddsmakers are expecting Brady to post better numbers in 2020 than he did last season. Circa set his regular season passing yards total at 4,200.5. BetOnline released its own version of the prop, but has the total at 4,350 with -115 juice on both sides.
He threw for 4,057 yards last year, but had a limited receiving corps outside of Julian Edelman. The past three years have led to an average of 4,330 yards.
Brady is expected to throw more in Tampa Bay and he will also have some of the NFL’s top targets in the passing game. There is a similar disagreement between Circa and BetOnline’s opening numbers when it comes to Brady’s touchdown passes.
The Vegas-based book has his total at 29.5 touchdowns, while the offshore option puts his total at 32.5. Lamar Jackson (36) and Jameis Winston (33) were the only quarterbacks to surpass 32.5 last season.
Given Brady only tossed 24 touchdowns last year and has averaged 28.3 touchdowns over the last three seasons, Circa probably has the sharper number on this prop.
The veteran also could miss time if he gets injured, which would likely make ‘under’ 32.5 TD passes a lock.
Brady’s interceptions total has been set at 8.5 by Circa and 10.5 by BetOnline. He threw eight picks last season and has only thrown more than nine interceptions once since 2014.
Circa also released props for the most wins and losses in the upcoming NFL regular season.
Kansas City and Baltimore are +425 co-favorites to record the most wins. The Ravens led the league with a 14-2 record in 2019.
Jacksonville is a +315 ‘chalk’ to be the worst team in 2020. The Jaguars went 6-10 last season, but oddsmakers are expecting them to take a step back next year. Carolina (+700), Cincinnati (+700) and Washington (+700) are all supposed to struggle as well.