The NFL draft used to be a sidebar for the sports betting community.
It has increasingly become a main attraction over the last few years. Next week’s draft will feature more prop bets than ever and has seen a ton of market movement.
Trevor Lawrence opened as a -250 favorite at BetMGM to be the first pick in the draft, which is going to cost the book a big chunk of change. He is now a virtual lock to be the top selection, listed at -10000 to be taken by Jacksonville.
One bettor laid $50,000 on Lawrence to be taken as the No. 1 pick at -1250 odds several months ago, according to Ben Fawkes of VSiN. Unless something drastic happens, the bet will cash for $4,000.
That bettor is not the only who is still laying the lumber on what appears to be a lock. A $10,000 bet returns just $100, but it is a quick return.
“The book has taken significant action on Trevor Lawrence to be the first overall pick,” BetMGM sports trader Darren Darby told Yahoo! Sports.
There is not much intrigue surrounding the second pick in the draft either. BYU’s Zach Wilson is priced at -2000 to be the second name called next Thursday.
Outside of the top two picks, the market has seen plenty of fluctuation. Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Alabama’s Mac Jones have been flip-flopping as the favorite for the third overall pick. North Dakota State signal-caller Trey Lance is also in the mix, despite being listed at 12/1 to be the third selection back in February.
Jones was the +125 ‘chalk’ on March 29, while Fields and Lance were both +175. The market shifted the following week, moving Jones to -205. Fields then flipped from +205 to -143 over the next week, putting Jones at +123 and Lance at +625 on April 15.
Things have reversed again, as Jones is now the -150 favorite. Fields is +165 and Lance is +300 as we head towards draft week. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have been attending each of their Pro Day’s, which has caused a lot of the line movement.
Circa Sports has Jones at EVEN to be the first quarterback selected out of this trio. Fields is +210 and Lance is +278.
There is sure to be more movement in the following week.