Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills
Line: Buffalo -3.5
Where: Nissan Stadium
When: Tuesday, 10/13, at 7:00 p.m. ET
It’s tough to know what to expect from the Tennessee Titans in an unprecedented edition of
Tuesday night football in the NFL.
The Titans are off to a 3-0 start this season, but they have been dealing with a COVID-19
outbreak that forced them to postpone last week’s game against Pittsburgh. It also caused them to
shift this week’s game against a 4-0 Buffalo team to Tuesday night.
Oddsmakers listed the Titans as 2.5-point favorites last week, but then the line was off the board
until Sunday night due to all of the uncertainty surrounding this game. Buffalo re-opened as a 3-
point favorite and has been quickly bet up to a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ as of Monday afternoon. The
total opened at 50, was adjusted to 53.5 and is back to 51.5 as of early Tuesday afternoon.
The Bills are off to a fantastic start this season — a year in which they are favored to win the AFC
East. They are 4-0 for the first time since 2008 and are now priced as heavy -300 favorites in the
division at BetOnline.
Quarterback Josh Allen appears to have made significant strides since last season and is now a
+900 contender to win NFL MVP honors. He has completed 70.9 percent of his passes for 1,326
yards with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Allen’s career numbers include just a 58.7
percent completion rate and 42-22 TD-INT ratio.
The Bills offense comes in at No. 3 in the league with an average of 409.8 yards per game. They
will be facing a Tennessee defense that is third-worst in the NFL with 422.3 yards allowed per
Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has been a big addition in Buffalo, leading the team with 403
receiving yards and two touchdowns on 26 receptions. Cole Beasley and John Brown have also
been reliable targets, while Devin Singletary leads the rushing attack with 50 carries for 213
yards and a touchdown. Allen has added three scores on the ground.
Tennessee has dealt with some off-field drama over the last few weeks. The Titans have had 24
positive COVID-19 tests between players and staff, but there were no new positive tests on
They have not played in more than two weeks and had not practiced since September prior to
Saturday’s return to the practice field. Tennessee could also face discipline from the league after
players reportedly broke protocol and held informal workouts while the team was supposed to be
The Titans’ players on the COVID-19 list included wide receivers Corey Davis and Adam
Humphries. Offensive tackle Isaiah Wilson, long snapper Beau Brinkley and defensive lineman
DaQuan Jones were all activated on Sunday. More players could be activated on Tuesday before
the game kicks off.
Tennessee has won all three of its games to open the season, but it has yet to cover the spread.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill leads the way offensively, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for
809 yards and six touchdowns. Running back Derrick Henry has 82 carries for 319 yards and
Davis has been the leading wide receiver, catching 15 passes for 206 yards and a score. Tight
end Jonnu Smith has 13 receptions for 181 yards and a team-high three touchdowns. Humphries
has added 15 grabs for 136 yards and a TD. They will be facing a below-average Buffalo
defense that ranks No. 17 in the NFL, allowing 381.3 YPG.
These teams have both been playing high-scoring games lately. Buffalo has gone ‘over’ in four
of its last five games, while Tennessee has cashed the ‘over’ in 12 of its last 16 overall. The
Titans have seen the ‘over’ hit in six of their last seven home games.
The Pick: Buffalo -3.5
Bettors have already sucked some early value out of this line, moving it to 3.5 in a hurry.
However, I think there is still some value at this number with all the factors considered. We have
not seen how a two-week layoff is going to play a role in the NFL, but it certainly has to be a
huge negative for Tennessee. Regardless of the COVID-19 situation, the Titans have failed to
live up to market expectations through three games and Buffalo has been rolling. The Bills will
be able to pick apart this Tennessee defense and the lack of conditioning should give Buffalo’s
defense enough of an edge to slow down Tannehill and Henry in the second half.