Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans
Line: Green Bay -3.5
Where: Lambeau Field
When: Sunday, 12/27, at 8:20 p.m. ET
Two of the NFL’s most high-powered offenses will square off on Sunday night when Green Bay hosts Tennessee.
The Packers opened as 4-point favorites in a matchup of division leaders, but the early action has brought the line down to -3.5. Sunday’s total has ticked down from an opener of 56 to 55.5 as of Thursday morning.
Green Bay can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win and a Seattle loss. Tennessee and Indianapolis both have 10-4 records at the top of the AFC South, but the Titans own the tiebreaker. They are currently listed at -155 to win the division.
It has been another excellent regular season for the Packers, who are riding a four-game winning streak and are the +200 ‘chalk’ to win the NFC. They jumped out to a 21-3 halftime lead against Carolina last Saturday, ultimately failing to cover the spread in a 24-16 victory.
Running back Aaron Jones rushed for 145 yards and a touchdown. He was a limited participant at practice on Wednesday due to a toe injury and is officially listed as ‘questionable.’ Jones is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season.
He is usually overshadowed by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is trailing only Patrick Mahomes in the MVP race. Rodgers leads an offense that is ranked fourth in the NFL, averaging 390.0 total yards per game.
Last week’s contest was the most uneventful one of the season for Rodgers, who had just 143 passing yards and one touchdown on 29 attempts. He has completed 69.6 percent of his passes and has a 40-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season.
Wide receiver Davante Adams is Rodgers favorite target, catching 98 passes for 1,186 yards and 14 touchdowns. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has added 31 receptions for 603 yards and five scores, while tight end Robert Tonyan has 49 grabs for 551 yards and 10 touchdowns.
They will be facing a Tennessee defense that has really struggled this season, ranking No. 27 in the league with 390.5 yards allowed per game. The Titans have allowed four of their last five opponents to score at least 24 points.
Fortunately for them, the offense has been the best in the NFL behind the juggernaut that is Kansas City. Tennessee is averaging 399.4 yards per game and has scored 30-plus points in each of the last five games.
It all starts with running back Derrick Henry, who is in line to win the rushing title. He is only 321 yards shy of the 2,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. Stopping Henry is the key to slow down the Titans, as he has been held to an average of 87.5 yards per game in the team’s four losses this season.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is having a nice season as well, completing 66.5 percent of his passes for 3,482 yards. He brings a 31-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio into this game.
Young wide receivers Corey Davis and A.J. Brown have blossomed into one of the best duos in the NFL. Davis leads the team with 60 receptions for 945 yards, while Brown has 56 catches for 881 yards. Brown was limited at Wednesday’s practice with an ankle issue and is listed as ‘questionable.’
They will square off against a Packers defense that is No. 8 in the NFL, allowing 337.7 yards per game. It has allowed 110.1 rushing yards per contest.
Green Bay is 5-1 against-the-spread in its last six primetime games, winning all six straight-up. Tennessee has gone 10-2 in its last 12 road games and is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the Titans last six games, while the Packers have gone ‘under’ in four of their last six.
The pick: Tennessee +3.5
The Packers are on a nice winning streak, but they have not been winning many games with margin. They are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games. Tennessee has an offense that is as well-equipped to play in a cold game at Lambeau Field as any team in the NFL. Rodgers is going to have success against the Titans secondary, but Henry and the Tennessee offense will control the tempo and keep this game within striking distance. It should be a one-possession game that could go either way down the stretch.