Pick The Dow

[Bostongambler]

Baz I don't know why they deleted the old posts, maybe something with the new software... Anyway

Up on Thursday...

[bazanster2]

BG,

Wow, just can't believe it. Now there's no way of documenting my record for prosperity .[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-sad.gif[/img]
Not sure if that a good thing or a bad thing. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-blush.gif[/img]
Of course, I never did find the find time to tabulate it nor was there any clamouring demand.
Although there was quite a bit of research and data posted along with our Dow picks.
Guess one "shouldn't cry over spilled milk", perhaps a few sniffles.
Oh well, what can u do???

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Down on Thursday

The Dow has had "back to back" down days, perhaps indicating stalling momentum.
Market has been in a strong upward trend, so shorting a iffy propositon.
Assume any pull back will be short lived.
See the better performing Nasdaq drawing some funds away from the Dow.

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Market Notes:

"There's a lot of optimism about the earnings due in the next few weeks, and right now
that's concentrated in technology, with people feeling upbeat about tech earnings and
spending, which is why you've been seeing the Nasdaq perform a little better than the
others this last week"

-Robert Long, vice president of investments at Melhado Flynn & Associates.

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This week, Wall Street's attention will likely focus mainly on Friday's December jobs
report. A consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com expects employers added
148,000 new jobs to their payrolls, after adding 57,000 in November

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December 30, 2003: 2:51 PM EST

Stock funds take in $14.9 Billion

Funds added money in November...reports say.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors added a net $14.9 billion to U.S. stock mutual funds in
November, continuing a trend of inflows that started in March, an industry group said
Tuesday.

The Investment Company Institute said investors pulled $2.5 billion from bond funds
last month. Money market funds had outflows of $7.7 billion, the ICI said.
The latest monthly inflows were reported as the Dow industrials posted a small decline
while the Standard & Poor's 500 and the Nasdaq Composite added to their gains for the
year.
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good luck everyone,

baz
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[Bostongambler]

Down on Friday...

[bazanster2]

Hello BG,

Well, forgot about the store sales reports,
as well as the Initial Claims report this morning [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-sad.gif[/img]

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Jan 9 :

8:30a ......... Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30a ..........Unemployment Rate

Traders have been waiting for these numbers.
There is some antipation that they'll be dissappointing.
Which would probable cause a sharp sell off after the tear the Market has been on.
As soon as the reports are announced, some kind of run should ensue.

So at 8:35 am (eastern) would see the direction and strength of the move.
If's the "Future Indicator's" are positive, would go Up. If their down, would go Down.

Am expecting a big move one way or another at least 50-75 Dow points .

US Future Indicators

The one problem with this stategy is that sometimes, the Market Opens well over the
Previous Close, if there isn't enough more compelling factors to maintain the momentum,
the Market tends to drift lower.

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have a great weekend and good luck in the Play-Offs,

baz
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

[Bostongambler]

Getting in early Baz... I hope you had a good weekend..

UP on Monday...[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[bazanster2]

Good morning Bostongambler,

Up on Monday

Hoping to start this busy week off on the right note.
No economic reports today, traders are expecting better and average reports Tuesday.

Since March the Dow has been very consistent in retreating below it's 50 day
moving average or within 50 points of it on each leg's top.
From this, the next downward leg should correction to the 10,125-10,200 levels
with 10,275 being the top range.

Currently, the Dow MACD fast/slow lines are just about to reverse.
The MACD Histogram has been trending down and has gone down below -0-
on each leg.
Also, the stochastic has been in an "Overbought" condition for about a month.
Looking for samll bounce after dropping -133 on Friday. It could continuing to correct.
Just from the economic reports, am bullish on Tuesday and Friday. May some mixed reports
on Wednesday and Thursday. Consumer prices may be higher than expected.
The 4th Quarter results should provide a good run. The next Quarter may be hard pressed to
be as convincing. Especially the next GNP number. (I'm already shorting that day [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img])
After all, these Market have had outstanding run since March and everyday can't be sunny.
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A few miscellaneous comments:
While the Dow fell -133 points, Nanotech stocks shined.

Last Friday's action:
NPCT........ Up 9.0% on +1011% increase in daily volume.
ALTI ....... +7.9% on +2359% increase in daily volume.
NGEN....... +13.0% on +2505% increase in daily volume.
NANX....... +18.0% on +3403% increase in daily volume.

(*) Not sure I'd jump in today with these today, although the Nasdaq has out performed
the Dow, it's also more volitlle. Looking for a correction in Tech, these high flyers are
sure to give back some gains. But long term, look out.

Like VECO long term due their being a leader in making equipment use
in nanotechnology. It more diversified into metrology and process equipment systems
for industry leaders in the semiconductor, data storage, telecom/wireless and
scientific/research markets. Long term, nanotechnology should be a big boon.
www.veco.com

Red Hat (RHAT) +17.5% since it's listing 12/22/03

LUKOY: good to see it break $100

GLG and RANGY doing well in the Gold sector.

May be some short term weakness in Copper/PD.

that's about it, take care and have a great day.

Go Patriots!!!

baz
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

================================================== ==========
================================================== ==========

Key events in the week ahead"
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*Tuesday the Labor Department releases figures on import and export prices for
December. Typically not a closely watched report, it has lately garnered attention as
the prices of imported consumer goods have begun showing annual rises for the first time
since 1996. Overall import prices, less oil, rose by 0.3 percent in November. Export
prices, less agriculture, rose by 0.2 percent.

* Economists polled by Briefing.com forecast the trade deficit for November,
due out Wednesday, to come in at $42 billion, up from October's $41.8 billion.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* December's producer price index, also slated for Wednesday, is expected to show
a 0.2 percent increase in prices at the wholesale level, compared with a 0.3 percent
decline in November. The core, which excludes food and energy, is expected to climb 0.1
percent versus a 0.1 percent decline in November.

* Wednesday afternoon the Fed releases the beige book, a collection of anecdotal evidence
on the state of the economy put together by the regional Federal Reserve banks.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* Thursday's release of the consumer price index is expected to show that consumer inflation
picked up 0.1 percent in December after declining by 0.1 percent in November. The core CPI
is expected to tack on 0.1 percent against a November decline of 0.2 percent.

* December retail sales, due out Thursday, are expected to show a gain of 0.5 percent, versus
November's gain of 0.9 percent.

* The New York Fed releases the January read on its Empire State Index of manufacturing
activity in its region Thursday. In December it came in at 37.4. Any number over zero represents
expansion.

* The Philly Fed's more closely-watched index of manufacturing in its region, also due out Thursday,
is expected to come in at 30, down from 32.1 in December. Any number over zero represents expansion.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* November business inventories, due out Friday, are expected to show a gain of 0.2 percent versus
October's 0.4 percent gain.

* The Fed's report on industrial production and capacity utilization, slated for Friday, is expected
to show production picked up by 0.6 percent in December versus a 0.9 percent gain in November.
The utilization rate is expected to rise to 76 percent from November's 75.7 percent.



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[Bostongambler]

UP on Tuesday...

[bazanster2]

Joining you BG today, will jj make it a "hat trick?"[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

Up on Tuesday,

US Future Indicators

good luck everyone,

baz

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Monday and Tuesday don't offer much in the way of influential companies' results,
but Wednesday brings earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL),
Apple (AAPL: Research, Estimates), Intel (INTC) and Yahoo!
(YHOO).

On Thursday, Sun Microsystems (SUNW) reports, as well as a
number of banks, including Bank of America (BAC). General
Electric (GE) is due Friday.

Tuesday's economic news consists of reports on import and export prices.
However, the data doesn't usually influence stocks. Of greater interest will
be reports due later in the week on producer prices, consumer prices, manufacturing,
retail sales, and consumer sentiment, among others.

[Bostongambler]

Shall we continue the UP on Wednesday theme... I think so Baz..

UP on Wednesday...

[bazanster2]

OK, going with Up on Wednesday.

Just under the wire,

baz

[Bostongambler]

There we go Baz....

I hope it continues... UP on Thursday...[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[bazanster2]

BG,

Tough call today. After hours sell off in tech despite a good earnings report from Intel.
Future Indicators very bearish. Looking for the Market to open well below yesterday's close.
And to top that off, there's a slew of reports before the Market's Open.

Jan 15 .....................................

8:30a Initial Claims
8:30a Retail Sales
8:30a Retail Sales ex-auto
8:30a CPI
8:30a Core CPI
8:30a NY Empire State Index
---------------------------------------------
12:00p Philadelphia Fed
--------------------------------------------
3:00p Treasury Budget

Theory, if the pre-market reports don't have a positive impact on the Future
Indicators, then would go DOWN for Thursday.

Future Indicators

It would take a very good Intial Claims number to help the Nasdaq today.
Looks like their headed for a sell off. MACD very high and MACD Histogram headed
down. Recent sideway's trading shows stalling momentum.

The Dow MACD has just reverse, meaning it should start on a down ward leg
to prehaps around 10,250. The MACD Histogram is also in a bearish trend below -0-.
Consider any more below 10,500 to be a bad sign.

Unless the Future Indicators are Positive , going to go with Down on Thursday.
The Market did have a big day, perhaps it gives a little back today.

either way, have a great day,

baz
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

This forum goes dead without JJ..

CMGI is moving ... Hop on the money train

[Bostongambler]

I will continue with UP on Friday...

[bazanster2]

The day's corporate news overshadowed the morning's economic reports, which showed that
consumer prices edged up modestly in December, in line with estimates, showing that inflation
remains mild. New jobless claims fell last week, slightly more than analysts expected.
In addition, the all-important retail sales figures for December were upbeat, but analysts
had expected them to be even more robust.

Going with Up on Friday

Expecting good reports but increasing softness in the Tech Stocks on their way to a
short correction.

good call yesterday BG, keep it rolling.

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sportman,

CMGI has taken off nicely. Stock up 150% the last 12 months.
Software stocks in general are suppose to start doing better.
Yeah, jj's kind of prolific posting is hard to replace.
We do what we can.

thanks for visiting,

baz

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[Bostongambler]

Well what do you think Baz?


I say Up....On Tuesday...

[bazanster2]

Hello BG,

Going to go with Up on Tuesday.

Earning releases today from Citigroup, GM and 3M.

Good to see New England making it to another Superbowl.


good luck,

baz
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

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US Future Indicators
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Key events in the week ahead

* Earnings season heats up.

* President Bush gives his State of the Union address Tuesday night. Pass the popcorn.

* Economists polled by Briefing.com expect that December housing starts, slated for release
Wednesday, will come in at an annualized 1.983 million, down from November's 2.07 million.
Building permits are expected to come in at an annualized 1.86 million, down from November's
1.874 million.

* The December index of Leading Indicators, due out Thursday, is expected to climb by
0.2 percent. It gained 0.3 percent in November.

[Bostongambler]

Shall we keep with tradition on hump day... I say yes Baz...

UP on Wednesday...

[bazanster2]

"Shall we keep with tradition on hump day... I say yes Baz..."

We can keep tradtion on hump day....but the Market may not?

Down on Wednesday.

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Don't like the Market action, we're due for a correction too.
Falling short despite good numbers. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-sad.gif[/img]
After a -71 ppoint drop, a bounce could be in order.


good luck either way,

baz
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]