Pick The Dow

[bazanster2]

It appears that yesterday, I got it completely backwards.
The negative economic reports did indeed damping traders enthusiasm.
Back to try once more today.

"Wells Fargo & Co., US Bancorp and Morgan Stanley all reported better results for the July-September
period from a year earlier. However, the three financial firms provided fresh reminders that the broader
economy is struggling even as Wall Street rebounds."

So far this earning season, 84.7% earnings reports have beaten estimates,
while the percentage of companies raising guidance has been off the charts at 20.3%.

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/mer10.pdf


Below is a link to a table of historical S&P 500 Bull Run numbers:
Historicalbulls1015

Going with DOWN on HUMP Day,

gl,

baz
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Economic Reports:
Crude Inventories 10:30am(Eastern)
Fed´s Biege Book 2:00pm(Eastern)
--------------------------------------------------

The Treasury has spent more than $454 billion through TARP programs.
Forty-seven recipients have paid back nearly $73 billion.
That means more than $317 billion remains unrefunded.

[bazanster2]

Going with DOWN on Thursday,

gl,

baz
--------------------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Initial claims..............531,000
Leading Indicators 10:00am(Eastern)
FHFA Housing Price Index 10:00am(Eastern)


The Federal Reserve purchased 164 Billion of 339 Billion Treasuries being Auctioned in the 2nd Quarter.
Reported as a lime item (SOMA) System Open Market Account.


Some very good photos and a few very graphic ones:
120 Ultimate Photos Of 2008, By Boston | Featured | Shareordie

[bazanster2]

No real compelling reason to short the Market today,
Going with UP on Friday,

gl and have great weekend,

baz
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WASHINGTON (AP) -- With homebuyers rushing to complete their purchases before a tax credit
for first-time owners expires, a report Friday is expected to show strong September sales.
.................................................. .......................................
Economic Report:
Existing Home Sales 10:00am(Eastern)

[bazanster2]

Going with UP on Monday,

gl,

baz
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[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Going with UP on Monday,

gl,

baz
-----------------------------------------------

sounds good to me Baz, and even gold is running again
(i'm afraid i wont see an entry point for awhile yet?)

hope all is well in the sunbelt

[bazanster2]

Key Economic Reports due after the Opening Bell,
going with DOWN on Tuesday,

gl,

baz
---------------------------------------------------------------

Case-Shiller 20 Home Price Index 9:00am(Eastern)
Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9:00am(Eastern)
Consumer Confidence 10:00am(Eastern)

Foreclosures in Q3 up nearly 23% from 2008
Third quarter 54 percent of the foreclosures were in the four “sand states,” California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida.
RealtyTrac show that the foreclosures were 938,000 for the 3rd Quarter.
If this the pace continues, it would mean foreclosures are set to hit about 3.5 million this year, up from more than 2.3 million last year.
The unemployment rate is at a 26 year high of 9.8% and it isn't expected to peak until the middle of next year.

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Pentagon officials have told the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee in the House that every gallon of gasoline delivered
to US troops in Afghanistan costs American taxpayers $400.

According to reports, the US Marines in Afghanistan use 800,000 gallons of gasoline per day.
At $400 per gallon, that comes to a $320,000,000 daily fuel bill for the Marines alone.

It costs $750,000 per year for each soldier we have in Afghanistan.

------------------------------------------------
Some Info from the Net:

First, the history. Not for nothing is Afghanistan called the "graveyard of empires." Its mountainous, treacherous terrain
makes it impossible for any foreign power to conquer or occupy. We would be fools to think we could succeed where Alexander the Great,
the British, and the Russians could not.

Second, the cost. Again, largely because of the terrain and the difficulty of getting supplies into a remote, rural, land-locked country,
the cost of sending troops to Afghanistan far, far exceeds the cost of any other war in our history. According to Greenwald's documentary,
it cost $50,000 a year to support a soldier in Europe in World War II. Supporting the same soldier for a year in Afghanistan costs more than
$750,000 a year. At some point, with the non-war deficit already topping $1 trillion and growing, we're going to have to say: We've already
been in Afghanistan for eight years, with little success. We just can't afford this war anymore.

Third, the impossible mission. As articulated by President Obama in March, our mission in Afghanistan is to "disrupt, dismantle, and defeat
" al-Qaida. Yet, in "Rethink Afghanistan," General Petraeus himself confirms what others have reported: al-Qaida is no longer in Afghanistan;
they have moved operations into neighboring Pakistan.


Afghanistan: Obama's LBJ Moment - WDAF
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Brooksly Born vs. Alan Greenspan , Larry Summers , Robert Rubin and Arthur Levitt on her attempt to Regulate Derivatives.

A 55 minute Frontline video on the how Washington really works:

FRONTLINE: the warning: watch the full program online | PBS

[bazanster2]

Seems like I´ve been blown out of the water 4 straight days.
Each day, the future indicators were relatively flat.
Yesterday, Rising energy stocks and a decision by IBM Corp.
to double its stock-repurchase plan propped up the Dow Jones industrials.
However, two stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
Also, the Consumer Confidence Index fell unexpectedly to 47.7 in October,
its second-lowest reading since May. Analysts predicted a figure of 53.1.
Well, back to try again today.
Going with DOWN on Hump Day,

gl,

baz
------------------------------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Durable Orders 8:30am(Eastern)
Durable Orders Ex-Transportation 8:30am(Eastern)
New Home Sales 10:00am(Eastern)
Curde Inventories 10:30am(Eastern)

Economists are forecasting that GDP grew at a 3.2% clip in the third quarter

Still trying to figure out how a gallon of gas used by our troops in
Afghanistan could cost $400 a gallon. Are they delivering them in gold plated gas cans?

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Seems like I´ve been blown out of the water 4 straight days.
Each day, the future indicators were relatively flat.

Economists are forecasting that GDP grew at a 3.2% clip in the third quarter

Still trying to figure out how a gallon of gas used by our troops in
Afghanistan could cost $400 a gallon. Are they delivering them in gold plated gas cans?

... and they were right Baz!

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose early on Thursday, after the U.S. government reported the economy grew 3.5% in the third quarter and jobless claims fell in the latest week. Gold for December delivery was up $5.20, or 0.5%, to $1,035.70 an ounce. The increase in the gross domestic product was the first in a year and it was the strongest growth in two years. The 3.5% increase matched estimates of economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

... and w/re the high cost of oil? I drove a fuel truck in the Army for awhile. You're a sitting duck on a big firecracker. I'd imagine the danger involved in delivering the fuel (IEDs) is the cost factor, not to mention Haliburton probably has their fingers in this venture as well?


p.s. i noticed stock dropping 2:1 also, my watchlist was blood red, and i attributed it to people profit taking after good earnings reports by companies? UP today ... doh

[bazanster2]

Going with UP on Thursday,

gl,

baz
-----------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
GDP-Adv..........................+3.5%
Intial Claims....................530,000
Continuing Claims 8:30am(Eastern)

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For any NBA Bettors out there, excerpts from David Stern's favorite book,
Blowing the Whistle, by Tim Donaghy.
How much belief one gives these allegations may depend on their point of view
and how much money they won or lost.

Excerpts From The Book The NBA Doesn't Want You To Read - Tim Donaghy - Deadspin

[bazanster2]

Going with the Future Indictors 15 minutes prior to Opening Bell due
to the number of Economic Reports due. However, would be more inclined to
short the Market after yesterday´s substantial rally.

Pre-Market: Stock Trading Before the Markets Open from CNNMoney.com

Have a great weekend and good luck with your wagers,

baz
-----------------------------------------------------------------


Economic Reports:
Personal Income 8:30am(Eastern)
Personal Spending 8:30am(Eastern)
Michigan Sentiment-Prev. 9:55am(Eastern)
Employment Cost Index 10:00am(Eastern)

[bazanster2]

Going to go with UP on Monday,

gl,

baz
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Economic Report:
Construction Spending 10:00am(Eastern)
ISM Index 10:00am(Eastern)
Pending Home Sales 10:00am(Eastern)

Struggling lender CIT Group (CIT) has submitted bankruptcy filings
and after regulators closed nine banks on Friday, the total number
of failed banks in 2009 stands at 115 -- the most since 1992


By 2019 the total debt accrued over the past several decades is on track
to approach an unhealthy 82% of gross domestic product.

It is now expected that the $12.104 trillion debt ceiling could be breached
by the end of November.
Lawmakers have raise the Debt ceiling more than 90 times since 1940
-- eight since 2002.

The US plans to sell $123 billion worth of Treasurys this week.
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Bonus Coverage for NFL Half Time Bettors:

NFL halftime betting tips from TwoMinuteWarning.com

[bazanster2]

(AP) U.S. stock futures are down sharply Tuesday, following selloffs in Asia and Europe, as concerns mount
about the sustainability of an economic rebound.
European shares fell in aftern on trading there amid worries about the stability of major financial firms.


On Tuesday, investors will get data on factory orders, as well as sales reports from major automakers.
But even if the reports are positive (their expected to be good), trading could be volatile.
Also Tuesday, the Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting on interest rates.
Very little chance of rates being increased.

On Monday, Jon D. Greenlee, the Federal Reserve's associate director for banking supervision and regulation,
told lawmakers that "significant stress and weaknesses" remain in the financial system.


Tough call today, sentient currently negative but economic reports
should be good.
Going with DOWN on Tuesday,

gl,

baz
-------------------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Factory Orders 10:00am(Eastern)
Auto Sales 2:00pm(Eastern)
Truck Sales 2:00am(Eastern)

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The CIT Plan:CIT Group is the first large lesson for taxpayers of its risks

The prepackaged plan allows CIT to restructure its debt while trying to keep badly needed loans flowing
to thousands of mid-sized and small businesses. The plan keeps CIT's operations alive and makes it possible
for the company to exit bankruptcy by year's end.
But here's the bad news: While senior debt holders will only lose 30% of their investment, we, the U.S. taxpayer,
will lose the entire $2.3 billion we lent the company this summer.

Geithner "Burned Billions" Shafted Taxpayers on CIT Loan Prof. Bill Black Says: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

[bazanster2]

Gold hit new high of $1,087.30
Federal Reserve is expected to hold the fed funds rate,
a key overnight bank lending rate, at historic lows near 0%.

Going with UP on Hump Day,

gl,

baz
---------------------------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Challenger Job Cuts 7:30am(Eastern)
ADP Employment Report 8:15am(Eastern)
ISM Services 10:00am(Eastern)
Crude Inventories 10:30am(Eastern)
FOMC Rate Cut Decision 2:15pm(Eastern)

Auto sales analysts at Edmunds.com say Taxpayers paid $24,000 per Clunker.


Are things really getting better? - GDP: Strong return to growth (1) - CNNMoney.com

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Gold hit new high of $1,087.30

Auto sales analysts at Edmunds.com say Taxpayers paid $24,000 per Clunker.

... and the majority of those benefitting from the clunker program could probably pay cash for their new car.

Watch Baz, now the Russians will send a boatload of gold from their treasury with this new high in gold ... lol ... then China will buy a few 100 tonnes at the new low whatta racket

[bazanster2]

Cisco reported better-than-expected profits.
Earning reports today from Cardinal Health, CVS Caremark and TimeWarner Cable.

Fed statement that economic conditions are "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels
of the federal funds rate for an extended period." This should be good for gold
and put continued pressure on the US Dollar.

Going with UP on Thursday,

gl,

baz

------------------------------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Employment Cost Index......+0.4%
Productivity...............+9.5%
Intial Claims..............512,000 lowest since January.
Continuing Claims..........5,797,000

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Starnet Gypsy,

I believe that IMF was going to sell quite a bit of gold,
not sure of the time frame though.
It is my understanding that China will be looking to buy Gold
whenever it goes below $1000.

[bazanster2]

Future Indicators fell sharply after the release of the Jobs numbers,
Going with DOWN on Friday,

gl,

baz
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Average Workweek..........................33.0 unchanged from last month and below the 33.2 consensus.
Hourly Earnings...........................+0.3%, better than the +0.1% anticipated.
Nonfarm Payrolls..........................-190,000 considerably more than the 175K expected.
Wholesale Inventories 10:00am(Eastern)
Consumer Credit 2:00pm(Eastern)

"Job losses for the previous month were upwardly revised to reflect nonfarm job losses of 219,000.
The unemployment rate now stands at 10.2%, which is up from 9.8% and higher than the 9.9% forecasted."

American International Group Inc. slid 9 percent after sales fell at its life insurance and property-casualty divisions.
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Among the 419 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported quarterly results since Oct. 7,
83% exceeded the average analyst estimate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Governments may take as long as a decade to cut debt issuance back to the levels
before global markets seized up following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last year,
according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The International Monetary Fund this week urged nations to address their rising debt levels,
warning they may lead to a surge in borrowing costs (ie. higher interest rates).
U.S. Treasury debt-management director Karthik Ramanathan told bond market participants
this week to expect another year of government debt sales of as much as $2 trillion.
Euro-region countries will increase issuance to 980 billion euros ($1.5 trillion) in 2010,
from 915 billion euros, according to ING Groep NV.
The IMF said Nov. 3 that government debt ratios will increase by 40 percentage points by 2014
from before the crisis.

[bazanster2]

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a 1 percent gain at the open on Monday as investors took comfort
from a pledge by the Group of 20 to keep economic stimulus in place until a recovery was reassured.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks...appears ready for a strong
start to the new week Monday amid talk about some major deals in the works.

Dow Jones Futures Indicator currently +79

Gold rose to a record high Monday as the dollar weakened against rival currencies.
December gold was up $12.80 to $1,108.50 an ounce in electronic trading,
after climbing to an all-time trading high of $1,109.90 earlier.

No economic reports until the 12th,
Going with UP on Monday,

gl,

baz

[bazanster2]

After such a strong day yesterday, a small pullback would not be unreasonable.
Going with DOWN on Tuesday,

gl,
baz
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US Treasury will be selling $81 Billion worth of Treasuries this week.
There was strong demand for yesterday's $40 Billion in 3-year notes,
however, there may be more resistence to the longer-term notes.
"This auction will be challenging," Nick Kalivas, vice president
of financial research at MF Global, wrote in a research report.
Any weakness in the longer-term notes would probably mean higher
interest rates at some point.


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In 2006 and 2007, Goldman Sachs Group peddled more than $40 billion in securities backed
by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages, but never told the buyers that it also was
secretly betting that a sharp drop in U.S. housing prices would send the value of those
securities plummeting.

McClatchy | Goldman

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One of the major reasons for the Subprime problems can be found in this article:
How Moody's sold its ratings - and sold out investors | McClatchy

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Starnet Gypsy,

"Where the men are men, so are the women, and the sheep are nervous." ...to funny.

I don´t see what the big problem is with Elizabeth Lambert is?
She just taking soccer to the next level with a little mixed martial arts.
Kind of spices up the game.
I was wonder if one of the Refs was her boyfriend of something though.


Elizabeth Lambert of New Mexico Lobos women's soccer suspended for rough play - ESPN

[bazanster2]

TOKYO (AP) -- Asian stock markets were mostly higher Wednesday after figures from China and Japan
showed the region's two biggest economies were on track to recovering from the global downturn.
European shares also traded higher.

Not a lot to report today.
Future Indicator currently +61
Going with UP on Hump Day,

gl,

baz
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About one in seven housing units was vacant in the third quarter, according to the Census Department.
This year has registered the highest reading since the government began collecting such data in 1965.
And some owners, such as Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, have decided to rent their houses out after they couldn't sell them.