Pick The Dow

[bazanster2]

BG,


DOW now just under it´s 200 Day Moving Average.
Since May 1st, in a trading range between 8820 and 8230.
MACD trending down toward -0-.
MACD Histogram under -0- but trending slightly up.
Stochastic appears to be bottoming and headed up.
Lately, it´s been a bit of a tug a war between the Bulls and Bears.
Tough call again,
going with UP on Monday,

gl,
baz
-------------------------------------------------------------
No Economic Reports

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Tough call again,
going with UP on Monday,

gl,
baz

I'll 2nd that Baz, up by a wee bit today

FTSE is holding green.

[StarnetGypsy]

Life is good Baz, we saw a modest gain today

+90.99

I'm thinkin we should see same tomorrow ... UP for me on Tuesday.

[bazanster2]

Looks like a another tough day to call.
Consumer Confidence and the S&P/Case Schiller Home Price Index report before the Opening Bell.
The Consumer Confidence expected by briefing.com to be better than the Market expects, so leaning towards Up.

Going to go with the Future Indicators 15 minutes prior to Opening Bell.

If their positive, will go with UP,
If their negative, will go with DOWN.

Pre-Market: Stock Trading Before the Markets Open from CNNMoney.com

gl,

baz
-------------------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Consumer Confidence 9:00am(Eastern)
S&P/Case Schiller Home Price Index 9:00am(Eastern)
Chicago PMI 9:45am(Eastern)
--------------------------------------------------------

Starnet Gypsy,

It's been a tough couple of weeks,
so anything in the green we'll take.

[bazanster2]

BG,


Assuming that yesterday´s Future Indicators were up prior to the Market Opening because the DOW Opened up yesterday.
The poor Consumer Confidence report caught the Market by surprise.
It was expected to show continued improvement.
So enter the day, 1-1 on the week.

Not getting any easier due to the amount of Economic Reports later in the day.
Have a host of reports tomorriw before the Opening Bell: Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Initial Claims,
Nonfarm Payroll and Factory Orders later in the day.
Furtures currently positive, but really have no idea which direction the Market may take.

Guessing UP on HUMP Day,

gl,

baz
--------------------------------------------------


Economic Reports:
ADP Employment Change 8:15am(Eastern)
Construction Spending 10:00am(Eastern)
ISM Index 10:00am(Eastern)
Pending Home Sales 10:00ma(Eastern)
Crude Inventories 10:30am(Eastern)
Auto Sales 2:00pm(Eastern)
Truck Sales 2:00pm(Eastern)

[StarnetGypsy]

Haven't seen BG around for a bit, Baz. Any idea where he may be? Tahiti sipping on an umbrella drink?

[bazanster2]

BG,

Future Indicators down after early economic reports.
Going with DOWN on Thursday,


gl,

baz
-------------------------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Average Work Week.....33 hours, down from 33.1 hours in May.
Hourly Earning--------$18.53 showing a 2.7% increase, smallest gain since Sept. 2005
Initial Claims........614,000 which was 1K less than expected.
Nonfarm Payroll.......467,000, 365,000 was expected. 9.5% highest rate since 1983
Factory Orders 10:00am(Eastern)

Unemployment was 9.5% for June, which is the highest rate since 1983.
"Unemployment is projected to keep rising for the rest of the year just as the income boost from the
stimulus package fades, undermining prospects for a sustained rebound in household purchases."
More firings are in the works following the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler LLC as shutdowns ripple
through auto-parts makers and car dealers.
Payrolls at builders fell 79,000 after decreasing 48,000.
Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted
244,000 workers after falling 107,000. Retail payrolls decreased by 21,000 after a 17,600 drop.
Financial firms reduced payrolls by 27,000, after a 30,000 drop the prior month.
Government payrolls decreased by 52,000, the biggest decline since July 2007,
after dropping 10,000 the prior month. The decrease reflects the layoff of workers hired on a temporary
basis to prepare for the 2010 census.

Unemployment will “remain painfully high for several more years,”
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said this week."

.................................................. .................................................. ......
On a Side Note:

LONDON (AP) -- Unemployment in the 16 countries that use the euro spiked to a ten-year high in May,
reinforcing concerns any recovery will take time now that more than 15 million people are out of work.

This is significant because Europe makes up about 1/3 or World GDP.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I.O.U.S.A.: Byte-Sized - The 30 Minute Version
YouTube - I.O.U.S.A.: Byte-Sized - The 30 Minute Version

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


Startnet Gypsy,

It appears that he has not been posting at Majorwager for a while now.
I did a search for any recent posts of his.
Have no idea why he isn't posing anymore.
I thought that maybe he has been taking some R&R or on a vacation.
It´s good to take a break from the financial markets every now an then.
Well send him an inquiry.

BostonGambler, where are you???

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

It appears that he has not been posting at Majorwager for a while now.
I did a search for any recent posts of his.
Have no idea why he isn't posing anymore.
I thought that maybe he has been taking some R&R or on a vacation.
It´s good to take a break from the financial markets every now an then.
Well send him an inquiry.

BostonGambler, where are you???

Well, if his portfolio is anything like mine (down 30% overall), he probably jumped out the basement window

[bazanster2]

BG,

Future currently negative.
GM bankruptcy plan approved, may help a little.
Going with DOWN on Monday,

gl,

baz
-----------------------------------------


Economic Report:
ISM Services 10:00am(Eastern)

Wall Street's focus this week shifts from economic reports to corporate earnings announcements and forecasts for
the rest of the year. After investors were rattled last week by the latest consumer and employment data, there is growing
uncertainty in the market about how strong the second half of the year will be.

Aluminum maker Alcoa Inc., the first of the 30 companies that make up the Dow Jones industrials to report second-quarter results,
opens earnings season on Wednesday. Hundreds of other corporations will issue their reports during the next four weeks.


"Comments from U.S. Vice President Joe Biden over the weekend fueled investors concerns as he said the Obama administration
"misread" the depth of the economic troubles it inherited."

A sombering fact according to James Grant from the Interest Rate Observer,
43% of US Treasuries will need to be rolled over in the next 12 months.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Starnet Gypsy,

If your going to pick a window to jump out, the basement window would be the best one to do so.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Traders yesterday disappointed in the economic news, sought refuge in defensive stocks,
thus driving the DOW into positive territory late in the day.

No economic reporttoday , going with UP on Tuesday,

gl,

baz
----------------------------------------------------------------


July 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. should consider drafting a second stimulus package focusing on infrastructure
projects because the $787 billion approved in February was “a bit too small,”
said Laura Tyson, an adviser to President Barack Obama.
The current plan “will have a positive effect, but the real economy is a sicker patient,”

-------------------------------------------------------------------
In the clearest signal yet that we are still in a potentially devastating global deflationary spiral,
The Riksbank, Sweden’s central bank and the world’s oldest central bank, has effectively
cut interest rates to minus 0.25% and has started a program of quantitative easing a.k.a printing money.
These are the most dramatic moves yet by a major central bank and will be watched the world over for
signs of success or failure.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Whitney Tilson (right) and Glenn Tongue of T2 Partners:

Here's the bottom line:

We are in the "middle innings" of the mortgage and foreclosure crisis
House prices have at least another 15%-20% to fall and won't bottom until the middle of next year.
The recent signs of stabilization are the "mother of all head fakes."

Real Estate Market Update July 6 2009: Plenty More Downside


CHART OF THE DAY: Home Vacancies Still At All-Time Highs

[bazanster2]

BG,

Not much to go on today.
Alcoa earnings report after the closing Bell.
The Consumer Credit report late in the day.

It's going to be another tough call today.
Entered the week decidely more bearish short term.

Going with DOWN on HUMP Day,

Economic Reports:
Crude Inventories 10:00am(Eastern)
Consumer Credit 3:00pm(Eastern)


gl,

baz
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Almost 67 percent of S&P 500 members topped analysts’ estimates for first-quarter earnings after eliminating jobs and closing plants,
Bloomberg data shows. The year-over-year profit slide for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index members may narrow to 21 percent from July
through September, after a decline of an estimated 34 percent in the second quarter, according to data compiled by S&P and Bloomberg.

Not expecting a good 2nd Quarter earnings season, however have to consider what Charles Smith,
Chief Investment Officer for Fort Pitt Capital Group Inc. pointed out recently:
“The analysts will probably lowball things once again and the companies will be able to jump over it again,”


Some of the numbers and estimates:

Railcar shipments are down 19.5 percent so far this year.

Exxon Mobil, net income may drop 64 percent.

Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s three largest automakers, will likely post losses,
“The numbers will look really ugly,”

The nine biggest U.S. air carriers, including Delta Air Lines Inc., American Airlines parent AMR Corp.
and United Airlines parent UAL Corp., may have a combined quarterly loss of $1 billion.

Large banks in general will report lower earnings than in the first quarter

It's estimated that technology purchases in the U.S. will decline 5.1 percent this year(although a 4Q recovery is forecasted)

Espoo, the world’s biggest handset maker, may report a 67 percent slide in net income.

Steelmakers are grappling with prices that have yet to rebound after demand plunged the most since World War II.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, may report its first profit decline in nine years.

Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, may report a second-quarter loss
and a 94 percent profit decline in the current quarter.

Rising unemployment in Europe is trimming as much as 10 percent of industry sales.

[Bostongambler]

Down on Hump Day.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Good to have ya back,

The way my picks(guesses) have been going, people definitely need
a 2nd opinion.

Economic Reports:
Initial Claims.....565K, quite a bit better than the 603K expected.
Wholesale Inventories 10:00am(Eastern) -1.0% expected.

Continuing claims came in at 6.88 million, which is above the 6.71 million continuing claims
that were widely anticiapated.

Alcoa(AA) posted an adjusted loss of $0.26 per share, which wasn't as severe as the loss
of $0.38 per share that had been widely forecasted.


Futures currently +48.

Going with UP on Thursday,

gl,

baz
-----------------------------------------------------------------
From T2 Partners LLC:
An overview of the housing/credit crisis and why there is more pain to come,
quite a few good charts and graphs.

http://www.moremortgagemeltdown.com/...e_crisis.pd f
.................................................. .................................................. .......

A New wonder material:Graphene:
New wonder material, one-atom thick, has scientists abuzz - Yahoo! News

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

BG,

Good to have ya back,

The way my picks(guesses) have been going, people definitely need
a 2nd opinion.

I've actually been using you as a reverse-barometer, Baz, and betting the picks

Just kidding my fren ... and yes, good to see BG back. Fill us in on all the juicy details BG, how was your get-away?

I like UP today as well, Baz. Alot of deals floating around out here

[bazanster2]

BG,
Going with DOWN on Friday to finish the week,

gl,

baz
................................................

Economic Reports:
Export Prices....0.8%
Import Prices....0.2%
Trade Balance....-26.0Billion, -30.0B illion was expected.
Michigan Sentiment Index 9:55am(Eastern)....expected to dip to 70.0 from 70.8

L'AQUILA, Italy (CNN) -- President Obama said Friday that leaders of the industrialized nations
have agreed to continue fueling economic growth while strengthening regulatory measures but
they also realize that full recovery is "still a ways off."


China reported their trade surplus for June, which fell to $8.3 bln,
well below the $15.5 bln consensus estimate.

Japan's Nikkei stock average dipped slightly for its eighth straight day of declines.
The Nikkei lost 5.4% on the week for its steepest weekly decline since late January


Chevron (CVX) is trading lower by 3% this morning after saying saying the upstream earnings
benefit from an increase in prices for crude oil is largely offset by substantial unfavorable foreign currency
effects, and that Q2 downstream results are projected to be significantly lower than Q1.

Corel misses by $0.01, misses on revs
.................................................. ..............

Starnet Gypsy,

"I've actually been using you as a reverse-barometer, Baz, and betting the picks"

That actually would have been a good strategy for the last month or so.
Have a feeling that like the economy, I´m coming out of my slump.
See the next leg of the DOW going down for a while.
Time will tell,

have a great weekend!

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

"I've actually been using you as a reverse-barometer, Baz, and betting the picks"

That actually would have been a good strategy for the last month or so.
Have a feeling that like the economy, I´m coming out of my slump.
See the next leg of the DOW going down for a while.
Time will tell,

have a great weekend!

yeah, that's prettymuch the consensus of the talking heads i see on CNBC, peppered with some UP days of people grabbing cheap deals too hard to pass up

meanwhile my portfolio is drying up like a fig

have a great weekend guys!

DOWN for me today too, but not by much.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Believe that we will see a repeat of last Quarter Earning announcements in
that companies will post earnings declines but not as much as expected.
So the Market rallied. However the result will not be as pronounced.
Really have no idea which direction the Market may take today.

Regardless, going with DOWN on Monday,

gl,

baz
.................................................. ...............




NEW YORK (AP) -- "Stock futures traded in a narrow range Monday morning as investors brace for a crush of earnings reports,
including key readings from the banking sector. 6% of the S&P 500, or 31 companies, is due to report results this week.
S&P earnings are expected to have declined 36% in the second quarter versus a year ago.
Barring some massive surprises, the S&P 500 is on track to post its eighth straight quarter of weaker profits,
the longest streak since Thomson began tracking results in 1998.
Materials are expected to post a 78% drop in profits versus a year ago, with steel and chemicals hit the hardest.
Energy is expected to see a year-over-year profit decline of 64%
Financials are on track to post declines of 55% versus a year ago."

Economic Report:
Treasury Budget 2:00pm(Eastern)


Starnet Gypsy,

Excellent call Friday "down but not by much", well done.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Meredith Whitney, founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC said in an interview on CNBC,
“Goldman is going to surprise big on the upside...” Her comments sent the Market soaring yesterday.

Today, she was proven correct as Goldman Sachs reported second-quarter profit of $4.93 a share,
more than the $3.65 estimated by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Interestingly enough, it was reported that Goldman executives sold stock worth $691 million
between September 2008 and April 2009.

Intel will be reporting after the Closing Bell.


Going with UP on Tuesday,

gl,

baz
.................................................. ...................

Economic Reports:
Core PPI.............+0.5%, 0.1% expected.
PPI..................+1.8%, 0.9% expected.
Retail Sales........´+0.6% better than the 0.4% forecasted.
Retail Sales ex-auto........
Business Inventories 10:00am(Eastern)


Back-to-school spending is set to slip 7.7% this year

[bazanster2]

BG,

Intel: After the market close Tuesday, tech bellwether Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) reported second-quarter profit
and revenue that both fell from a year ago but beat Wall Street estimates.
In addition, the chipmaker said it expects to see revenue growth in the second half of the year,
aided in large part by a rally in personal computer sales.

Somewhat of a difficult day to forecast due to the number of reports during the session.
US Future and Market Indicators positive.
Going with UP on Hump Day,

gl,

baz



Economic Reports:
Core CPI..............+0.2%
CPI...................+0.7%
Empire Manufacturing...-0.6%, slowest pace in over a year.
Capacity Utilzation 9:15am(Eastern)
Industrial Production 9:15am(Eastern)
Buiness Inventories 10:00am(Eastern)
Crude Inventories 10:30am(Eastern)
Minutues from FOMC Meeting 2:00pm(Eastern)



Some number on Derivatives:
The Size of Derivatives Bubble = $190K Per Person on Planet - SiliconValleyWatcher