Pick The Dow

[bazanster2]

BG,

One would think that good numbers from the Retail Sales would send the Futures higher.
However, Futures currently negative. Traders have concerns that higher interest rates
will "thwart" an economic recovery

Going with DOWN on Thursday,

gl,

baz
-------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Retail Sales......+0.5%
Retail Sales(ex.auto)...+0.5%
Initial Claims..........601,000
Business Inventories 10:00am(Eastern)



Treasury yields soared - with the benchmark 10-year yield briefly touching 4% - after the government
sold $19 billion of 10-year notes and Russia said it would reduce its share of U.S. debt.

"I think you are seeing an international bit of a crisis in terms of confidence in the U.S. and a lot of it centers
around policies that are highly inflationary," said Brian Edmonds, head of interest rate trading at Cantor Fitzgerald.
The surge in long-term Treasury yields is evidence that some foreign countries do not trust that the U.S. deficit
spending program is sustainable.

The U.S. has "created an inflationary monster" with its multi-pronged bailout and other countries are raising the red flag,
said Edmonds.
"They are screaming get your fiscal house in order."

[bazanster2]

BG,

Been quite a while since I´ve been skunked for the week.
Not much to go on today.
Going with DOWN on Friday.

gl,

baz
----------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Export Prices....+0.6%
Import Prices....+1.3%
Michigan Sentiment-Prel.

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

I´ve been skunked for the week.

Going with DOWN on Friday.

gl,

baz

+28.34

[bazanster2]

BG and Starnet Gypsy

Trying to bounce back after being skunked last week. Ugh.
It may be good because it keeps one humble, as hard as that may be.
Somewhat of a negative tone in the news to start the week.
Going with DOWN on Monday,

gl,

baz
..........................................


Economic Reports:
NY Empire Manufacturing Index -9.41....twice as much as expected.
Net Long-Term TIC Flows 9:00am(Eastern)....am not expect a good number.


President Barack Obama is set to release on Wednesday the details of his proposed overhaul to how
financial markets are regulated, according to a report published in The Wall Street Journal Monday.
He wants to give the Fed more oversight power, but considering the kind of job they have done before..WHY ??????

LONDON (Reuters) - The head of the IMF questioned on Monday any debate about when to roll back stimulus spending,
saying the world economy had yet to weather the worst of a recession that claimed a record number of European jobs.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Looks like DOW will reverse course today on good news.
Going with UP for Tuesday,

gl,

baz
-----------------------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Building Permits.........518,000
Core PPI.................-0.1%
PPI......................+0.2%, better than the +0.6% forecasted
Housing Starts...........532k, much higher than the 485,000 anticipated
Capacity Utilization......9:15am(Eastern)
Industrial Production....9:15am(Eastern)



IMF upgraded it´s view of the US economy, Bank of Japan upgraded it´s view of the Japanese economy.
Economic confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, improved for an eighth straight month in June.
Eurozone banks face more than $283 billion in writedowns this year and next.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Going with DOWN on Hump Day,

gl,

baz
-----------------------------------------------------


Economic Reports:
Core CPI.......0.1%
CPI............0.1%
Current Account Balance -$101.5Billion
Crude Inventories 10:30am(Eastern)



NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. mortgage applications fell for a fourth consecutive week, with overall demand plunging
to its lowest level in nearly seven months, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.

A weaker-than-expected profit forecast and cautious comments about the economy from FedEx Corp. weighed on the market.

Ron Paul, the famously anti-Federal Reserve Congressman from Texas has got 221 of his colleagues to sign onto a bill
(via Zero Hedge) that would require a fresh, outside audit of the Federal Reserve.
That's more than enough to get the bill out of the House, though it now faces the more adult and deliberative Senate,
who are likely to have less interest in such seditious shenanigans.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

This week may mark a significant turning point for the US Dollar.
It indicates a lessening of stature of the US Dollar as the Worlds Reserve Currency.
The bottomline is that Nations are starting to get out of the US Dollar and the pace will probably pick up as time goes on.


According to the data posted on the web site of the US Department of Treasury, China holds US$763.5 billion in US Treasury bonds
by end of April, down by US$4.4 billion from previous month's US$767.9 billion.
This was the first time that China had decreased its US Treasury bond holdings this year.
In fact, China was not the only country that trimmed its US Treasury bond holdings in April. Japan, Russia, and Brazil,
among many other countries and regions took the same action
China is looking to spend a maximum US$50 billion on the bonds issued by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) if reasonable returns could not cause an issue. Russia and Brazil are also eyeing the upcoming IMF bonds.
Both of them are planning to get foreign exchanges by selling US Treasury bonds and use them to purchase IMF bonds.

China cuts US Treasury bond holdings by US$4.4b -- china.org.cn
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and China are gathering in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg today,
during which they are expected to discuss ways to reduce their reliance on the US dollar.
This is an opportunity for the BRIC nations to discuss the roadmap for a super sovereign reserve currency,"
said Li Wei, a professor of economics with Cheung Kong Global School of Business
Days before the opening of the summit, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev proposed that countries use a mix of
regional reserve currencies to reduce reliance on the dollar. The subject may be on the agenda when he
meets his counterparts in Yekaterinburg, the Kremlin said this month.
Russia's central bank later said it planned to reduce the proportion of foreign exchange reserves it has invested in
US Treasury bonds and shift some into bonds issued by the International Monetary Fund, and deposits
at commercial banks.
The moves echoed China and Brazil's decision to invest $40 billion and $10 billion respectively in International Monetary Fund bonds,
a move to diversify their dollar-heavy currency reserves.
IMF bonds are denominated in Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, an artificial currency used by the IMF

China signed a deal with Brazil last month, which would allow some bilateral trade transactions to be conducted in
Brazilian reals and the Chinese yuan.

Over the past months, China has signed currency swap deals worth 650 billion yuan with six nations,
in a major push to increase the use of the yuan.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Tough call today.
Looking for the Market to Open Positive.
Leading Indicators is expected to show a +1% increase in May and the
Philadelphia Fed Index is anticipated to show an improvement to -17 for June compared to -22.6 last month.
A very tenative decision for today, can't pull the trigger on UP,
going with DOWN on Thursday.

gl,

baz
.................................................. ................

Economic Reports:
Initial Claims....608,0000
Leading Indicators 10:00am(Eastern)
Philadelphia Fed. 10:00am(Eastern)

Stock futures have been trading in a tight range as investors await testimony from Treasury Secretary
Timothy Geithner on the White House's proposed overhaul of the nation's financial regulatory system.

After the opening bell, a report on leading economic indicators is expected to show an increase of 1% in May,
according to Briefing.com consensus, matching the 1% increase from the prior month.

The Philadelphia Fed index, a reading on regional manufacturing, is expected to improve to negative 17 in June
from negative 22.6 last month, according to Briefing.com.


Italy Seizes $135 BILLION Of US Bonds
Italy Seizes A Ridiculous $135 BILLION Worth Of Smuggled US Bonds

Lost Luggage?:
YouTube - most funny stand up comedy sketch ever

[bazanster2]

BG,

Market appears to be Open up, no Economic Reports.
Going with UP on Friday,

gl,

baz
-----------------------------------------------------

10-quirky-economic-indicators: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance

Comparing the First Great Depression and Now:
Tracking The Second Great Depression

[StarnetGypsy]

Baz & BG ..

I get John Mauldin's economic newsletter but i don't usually read more than a paragraph or two, this one i found compelling and couldnt stop reading, a must read if you're concerned about the economy or investing in it?

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo061909.pdf

It's prettymuch in keeping with your Tracking The Second Great Depression Baz ...

[bazanster2]

BG,

Stock futures retreated early Monday as the World Bank added to the market's growing economic worries.
The Washington-based multilateral lender predicted the world economy will shrink 2.9 percent in 2009.
That estimate was worse than its previous forecast for a 1.7 percent decline.

The stock market is coming off its first weekly loss in more than a month after a batch of weak economic readings,
including the seventh straight monthly drop in industrial production.

The Treasury is planning to auction $104 billion in debt this week.

Economic Reports:
None scheduled.

Not much to go on today, looks like the Market will Open down,
Going with DOWN on Monday,

gl,

baz
..........................................


"Income tax withholdings are down 5.1% on a year-over-year basis, based on the Treasury's daily reports.
That's an amazingly large decline in income, and a much worse than the 2% drop ahead of the 2001 recession.
That decline in income suggests the personal savings rate is not improving nearly as much as the Bureau of Economic Analysis
says, because their analysis is based on lagging data.
More importantly, falling incomes are going to make it very hard for Americans to make the $1 trillion in consumer debt service payments
that are due annually. As a result, foreclosures are going to pick up again after the recent lull, with Alt-A and jumbo loans
being the next problem areas. In addition, credit card default rates will rise sharply from their already elevated levels,
default rates at Bank of America increased to 12.5% in May vs. 10.5% in April.
A significant portion of the $14 trillion of consumer debt is going to go bad.
The negative implications on the bank stress test were nowhere near what's really going on."

info from Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research.
TrimTabs Investment Research

10 Things You Didn't Know About... (usnews.com)

----------------------------------------------------------

Starnet Gypsy,

Thanks, I did read it last night after checking out the Market Meltdown Tread.
I'm getting the feeling that we're in a lull right now. That the economic
numbers are still not good, just not declining as rapidly as before.
However, expecting another wave of losses for the banks.
I believe that the "Income tax withholdings are down 5.1% on a year-over-year basis" are a
fair reflection of what is actually happening.
Commercial Real Estate losses are starting to pick up momentum.
The Alt-A and Option ARMs Resets are due in earnest next year.
It will take a while after they reset before there's significant defaults.
Another factor is that it appears that foreign Governments are starting to avoid using the US Dollar
and making other arrangements to do deals in other other currencies.
The bottomline is that this will mean higher interest rates for the US.
That's the problem, all this borrowing the US is doing and will have to do, is viewed as inflationary.
Thus, lenders will demand higher interest rates to compenstate for the increased risk.
Thus, making Debt even more expensive in the long run.
It's a vicious cycle.

30 Years of Inflation Coming But "Deflation Scare" Not Over Yet Cycle Maven Says: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

Hope you see lots of green today and in the future

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

The bottomline is that this will mean higher interest rates for the US.
That's the problem, all this borrowing the US is doing and will have to do, is viewed as inflationary.
Thus, lenders will demand higher interest rates to compenstate for the increased risk.
Thus, making Debt even more expensive in the long run.
It's a vicious cycle.

definately Baz, and that will drive gold prices higher. considering they've dropped significantly in that past couple weeks due to the dollar gaining strength, that's a considerable upside for those investing in gold. i think gold is at $920 right now (down from the high of $985?) ...

saw this article last Friday by Dr. Doom. he sees oil going higher which is good for people holding oil stock, and bad for the consumer.

all-in-all a pretty negative article ... unless you own gold & oil.

- - - - -

Oil at $100, Interest Rates May Stifle Recovery: Roubini

CNBC.com - The price of oil, which is rising too fast, and long-term interest rates that are beginning to creep up are likely to suppress a budding recovery, famous economist Nouriel Roubini, also dubbed "Dr. Doom," told CNBC Monday.

"I see even the risk of a double-dip, W-shaped recession… towards the end of next year," Roubini told "Squawk Box Europe."

"Oil could be closer to $100 a barrel towards the end of this year, this could be a negative shock to the economy," he said, adding that other dangers come from long-term interest rates and big budget deficits.

In the next few months, unemployment may reach 11 percent in the US and around 10 percent in Europe.

Because of bad macroeconomic data and poor earnings prospects as companies have weak pricing power and demand is still subdued, the surprises will be on the downside, he said.

"That's why I believe there's going to be a significant market correction for equities, for commodities and even for credit," Roubini added.

He said recovery signs should come from unemployment, housing, industrial production, sales and consumption data.

"When I look at them I see so far still more yellow weeds than green shoots. They have to bottom out, in my view they haven't bottomed out. This recovery, unfortunately, because of the debt overhang… is going to be a very weak economic recovery, in my view," he added.

The large budget deficits caused by government stimulus packages and bailouts make the work of central banks harder, as they now have to be cautious regarding inflation.

In Europe, the dangers came both from its weak economy and from exposure of Western European banks to Eastern European economies, he said. But protectionism is not an answer, Roubini warned.

"The reality is that too much protection would be dangerous," he said.

"In Europe there is a risk that even the single market is breaking down because of protectionism, let alone the rest of the world," Roubini added.

[StarnetGypsy]

Came across another diddy in John Mauldin's newsletter, Baz ... bleak, with a smattering of optimism? lol

- - - - -

New findings:

* World industrial production continues to track closely the 1930s fall, with no clear signs of ‘green shoots'.

* World stock markets have rebounded a bit since March, and world trade has stabilized, but these are still following paths far below the ones they followed in the Great Depression.

* There are new charts for individual nations' industrial output. The big-4 EU nations divide north-south; today's German and British industrial output are closely tracking their rate of fall in the 1930s, while Italy and France are doing much worse.

* The North Americans (US & Canada) continue to see their industrial output fall approximately in line with what happened in the 1929 crisis, with no clear signs of a turn around.

* Japan's industrial output in February was 25 percentage points lower than at the equivalent stage in the Great Depression. There was however a sharp rebound in March.

The parallels between the Great Depression of the 1930s and our current Great Recession have been widely remarked upon, and some believe that the fall in US industrial production from its mid-1929 and late-2007 peaks has been milder this time.

However, the world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-30. Looking just at the US leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation really is even in comparison with 1929-30.

The good news, of course, is that the policy response is very different. The question now is whether that policy response will work.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Tough call today, only report is the Existing Home Sales.
Briefing Forecast is for slightly better than expected.
So, will go with UP on Tuesday.

gl,

baz


Economic Reports:
Existing Home Sales 10am(Eastern)

TOKYO (Reuters)Uncle Sam's triple-A credit rating is safe, but the credit agency says it could
come under closer scrutiny if spending trajectory doesn't pull back or dollar is threatened.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Starnet Gypsy,

Long term, the Supply-Demand is very favorable for oil headed higher.
We're fast approaching "Peak Oil".
Unfortunately, I have to agree with Dr.Doom here.
The results of the 650 trillion dirivitive markets are still going to be felt.
A leak a few weaks ago talked of 50 trillion worth of losses in Europe.
JP Morgan alone has or had 90 trillion worth of derivities on their books.
There going to be problems in the Leveraged Buyout arena coming.
Along with what I mentioned yesterday.

Now, big world players are starting to set up their own oil bourses --
St. Petersburg in Russia , Shanghai , Zhengzhou , and Dalian in China ,
and Mumbai in India -- and are shifting to other currencies for oil transactions.
There is also the shift by Venezuela , Iran , Sudan , Kuwait and Syria away from
the declining U.S. dollar in trading their oil. Saudi Arabia , UAE, South Korea and
Qatar are also seriously considering abandoning the U.S. dollar

BRIC governments issued a communiqué calling for "a stable, predictable and more diversified international monetary system."
They are also shifting to purchasing IMF Debt and making purchasing of each others debt instead of US debt.

In April, China pared its stake by $4.4 billion, to $763.5 billion total. Japan, also posted a small decrease.
So did Russia, Brazil, and oil exporting nations.
foreign investors pumped only $41.9 billion into US Treasury bonds, down from about $55 billion in March.
That´s a 23.8% decrease.
Russia announced it would reduce its share of U.S. treasuries in its $400 billion reserves.

The process of shifting away from the US Dollar as a reserve Currency has begun.
Purchases of US Debt has moved away from long maturities to much shorter.

This is the catch-22. The more the US goes into debt to prop up the economy,
the less attractive the US Dollar becomes. The pace of dumping the US Dollar is picking up.
A lower US Dollar drives interest rates higher, which hurts the US Economy.
The United States has abused it´s privilege as the Worlds Reserve Currency and it´s starting to pay the price.
Considering the losses other Nations have endured for so long, it not that surprising.
All in all, gold does seem like a relatively good place to be.

[bazanster2]

BG,

A few reports after the Opening Bell, Fed Rate Decision in the afternoon.
Really have no idea which direction the Market may take.
Going with DOWN on Hump Day.
Guessing that Traders will respond negatively to Fed actions and
that there will be an unwillingness to commit late before tomorrows Initial Claims and the GDP final number.

gl,

baz
..................................................

Economic Reports:
Durable Orders 8:30am(Eastern)
Dubable Orders ex-transportation 8:30am(Eastern)
New Home Sales 10:00am(Eastern)
Crude Inventories 10:30am(Eastern)
FOMC Rate Decision 2:15pm(Eastern)

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

BG,
Going with DOWN on Hump Day.


gl,

baz

23.05

yer gettin that ole magic back Baz


think i'll go with UP today

(Asia is strong and Footsie barely down)

[bazanster2]

BG,
Going with DOWN today,

gl,


baz
----------------------------

Economic Reports:
Initial Claims......627,000 , vs. the 600,000 expected.
Q1 GDP-Final........5.5%, slightly better than the 5.7% anticipated.

Treasury auction today: $27 billion in seven-year notes


Debt Clock: U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

.................................................. .................
Starnet Gypsy,

It comes and goes.
Guessing the Market can be a streaky endeavor,
especially when your trying to make the call before the Bell.

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Debt Clock: U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

fecking mind-boggling, Baz ow! ow! ow!

one thing i found interesting in that collection of stats was the Medi-care fraud, totaling roughly $60bil a year. if the gubment would crack down heavy on the fraud, they'd be able to pay for roughly 60% of the annual cost of a new gubment health care program ... and people are crying "how are you going to pay for it?"

don't cry people, get to work!

[bazanster2]

BG,

Still recovering from the Body Slam I took from the Market yesterday.
Taken completely by surprise too.
2-2 for the week, so today is the rubber match.
Going with UP on Friday.

gl,

baz

Economic Reports:
Personal Income...-..+1.4% which was well above the 0.3% expected.
Personal Spending....+0.3% in line with expectations.
PCE(personal consumption expenditures) Core.....+0.1% also in line.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Starnet Gypsy,

Good call yesterday.
Here's an interesting article concerning Gold:

Gold Doesn’t Care If It’s IN-flation or DE-flation -- Seeking Alpha

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Here's an interesting article concerning Gold:

so it's true then, gold really is King

(long gold)