Pick The Dow

[bazanster2]

BG,

Nothing like getting blown out of the water within the first hour of trading to start the week off.
Didn´t see the Consumer Confidence Index being +28.8% better than what was expected.
THE CCI was +35.1% better than the last reading. More good news being reported as follows:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- More than 90 percent of economists predict the U.S. recession will end this year,
although the recovery is likely to be bumpy.
That assessment came from leading forecasters in a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.
About 74 percent of the forecasters expect the recession -- which started in December 2007 and is the longest
since World War II -- to end in the third quarter. Another 19 percent predict the turning point will come in the final
three months of this year, and the remaining 7 percent believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.

Future slightly positive. Expecting a increase in Existing Home Sales.

Going with UP on Hump Day,


gl,

baz
----------------------------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Existing Home Sales 10:00(Eastern)
Crude Inventories 10:30(Eastern)

In his book More Mortgage Meltdown, Whitney Tilson says the house-price collapse is in the 7th inning
but that bank loss writedowns are still in the early innings.
Why?
Because banks will eventually have to write off almost $4 Trillion of bad loans, in Tilson's estimation,
and to date they've only written off a little over $1 Trillion.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Now I have 2 black-eyes this week with only 2 days to go.
Looks like it´s going to be one of those weeks.

Futures are a positive +27, so going with UP on Thursday,
despite the Future being wrong both times this week also.

gl,

baz

-----------------------------------------------
Economic Reports:
Durable Goods Orders......increased +1.9% vs. 0.5% expected.
Durable Goods,Ex-Transport....0.8% vs. 0.3% expected.
Initial Claims.................623,0000 slightly below the 628,000 anticipated.
New Home Sales 10:00am(Eastern)....Market Expects 360K, Briefing.com 365k
Crude Inventories 11:00am(Eastern)

10 Secrets of Millionaires' Money Management - US News and World Report
Money Saving Tips - US News and World Report (usnews.com)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Starnet Gypsy,

I get the impression that Kim Jong II, the de facto leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea,
called the "Great Leader" whom formerly referring to himself as the "Dear Leader" is considered a bit of a loose cannon.
Cnn describes Kim more diplomatically as "one of the most mysterious leaders in the world."
Said to be a huge film buff, owning a collection of more than 20,000 video tapes.
His reported favorites are the Friday the 13th, Rambo, James Bond, and Godzilla series,
as well as Hong Kong action cinema, and any movie with Elizabeth Taylor.
Somewhat surprise that Dr.Strangeglove wasn´t on his favorite movies list.
The last thing we need right now if for him to start to get missile happy.

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Starnet Gypsy,

I get the impression that Kim Jong II, the de facto leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea,
called the "Great Leader" whom formerly referring to himself as the "Dear Leader" is considered a bit of a loose cannon.
Cnn describes Kim more diplomatically as "one of the most mysterious leaders in the world."
Said to be a huge film buff, owning a collection of more than 20,000 video tapes.
His reported favorites are the Friday the 13th, Rambo, James Bond, and Godzilla series,
as well as Hong Kong action cinema, and any movie with Elizabeth Taylor.
Somewhat surprise that Dr.Strangeglove wasn´t on his favorite movies list.
The last thing we need right now if for him to start to get missile happy.

He's actually pretty predictable, Baz. What he's jockeying for right now is his own 'stimulus package' from Obama. Whenever he runs low on money from drug & armament sales he does something whacko to get cash coming in. Obama needs to take a hard stance against this fuckwad, and not give him one fucking red-cent.

I have no doubt N.Korea's citizens are starving, and if he's low on cash how the fuck can he seriously launch an attack vs S. Korea with his million-man army. They'd run outta fuel before they got started, and i seriously doubt he'd launch a missile attack as that'd be signing his death warrant

Just more psycho-babble & sabre rattling imho ... not too mention a sales campaign visual demonstration for prospective buyers of his nuclear arms?

[bazanster2]

BG,

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy shrank at a -5.7 percent annual pace in the first quarter,
capping its worst six- month performance in five decades.

Futures still positive, GDP report appears to have been greeted positively.
Hopefully, the Chicago PMI and Michigan Sentiment reports don't send the Markets into a tailspin.
Going with UP on Friday in effort to even up this weeks prognostications.

gl,

baz
.................................................. .........

Economic Reports:
GDP............-5.7% which was a tad over the -5.5% expected.
Chicago PMI 9:45am(Eastern)
Michigan Sentiment-Rev. 9:55am(Eastern)
------------------------------------------------------------
Starnet Gypsy,

Have to agree that it´s more sabre rattling than anything else.
Any kind of real missle attack would result in a very quick demise for him.
.................................................. .................
A couple of video´s which may be of interest:

YouTube - EnOcean's Channel

Free Video - Business and personal finance news from Fortune

[bazanster2]

BG,

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were poised to soar at the start of trading Monday after
General Motors filed for bankruptcy and a bankruptcy court judge ruled in favor of Chrysler's asset sale.

Going with UP on Monday,

gl,


baz

Economic Reports:
Personal Income ....-0.5%
Personal Spending....-0.1%
Construction Spending 10:00am(Eastern)
ISM Index 10:00am(Eastern)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Bill Moyer interview with Professor William K. Black, former Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention in a rather disturbing interview.
I put the transcript in because the interview ends a before it´s completed.

Bill Moyers Journal . Watch & Listen | PBS

Transcript:
Bill Moyers Journal . Transcripts | PBS

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

BG,

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were poised to soar at the start of trading Monday after
General Motors filed for bankruptcy and a bankruptcy court judge ruled in favor of Chrysler's asset sale.

Going with UP on Monday,

gl,


baz

i'm on board with that Baz, big surge, maybe 250/pts?

should slow gold down a bit too, retracing for buying opps. it has been roaring to the $1,000 mark lately, and once it settles above $1k, it aint goin down (i wanna get in with some goldmine stock)

[StarnetGypsy]

12:01a ET June 2, 2009 (MarketWatch)

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Contrarians normally would be having a field day analyzing the stock market's behavior on Monday.

That's because, in the face of the bankruptcy filing of General Motors Corp. , the stock market soared -- providing a classic illustration of the "What, Me Worry" school of investing that is so often seen when markets are vulnerable to a decline.

But a development after the close on Monday makes it much harder for contrarians to make their bearish case: The investment newsletter with the best stock market timing record over the last three decades switched from being only moderately bullish to aggressively bullish.

I'm referring to Dan Sullivan, editor of The Chartist. It is in first place for stock market timing advice among all services the Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD) has been tracking since mid 1980 -- which is when the HFD began monitoring the investment newsletter industry.

Sullivan has made a number of prescient market timing calls over the last three decades. But one of his better ones was a sell signal in mid January of 2008, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was still trading well above the 12,000 level. When he partially re-entered the stock market in mid April, the Dow was only two-thirds as high.

With just those two trades, Sullivan picked up a lot of ground over buying and holding.

In a communication to subscribers Monday evening, Sullivan recommended that subscribers mover from being only partially invested in equities to being fully invested. And in his most aggressive model portfolio, he actually moved to being 125% invested -- in other words, to be 25% on margin.

Sullivan provided no rationale for his becoming more bullish. But in the most recent issue of his newsletter, dated May 21, he was already entertaining the possibility that the rally that began on March 9 had much further to run:

"During the early stages of bull markets, many investors will remain on the sidelines. They have a preconceived idea of where the market will go and will cite any number of economic concerns, as well as the warnings of CNBC pundits, to support their bearish case. Don't get us wrong; they might be right, but if history is any guide, the great majority of investors who were badly mauled during the bear market will not commit even a portion of their capital until it is much too late."

[bazanster2]

BG,

(AP) The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted at a slower rate in May.
The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 42.8 in May from 40.1 in April.
This was the index's highest reading since September and was the fifth
straight monthly rise.
The Commerce Department said consumer spending slipped 0.1% in April after a 0.3% fall in March and spending on
construction projects rose 0.8% in April from March, the biggest increase since August.

$178 billion in commercial mortgages are due to mature in 2009. That would be the biggest-ever
slug of refinancing demands ever to hit this market.

Most difficult to call due to the last economic reports.
Perhaps some profit taking?

Going with DOWN on Tuesday,

gl,

baz
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Starnet Gypsy,

Looking for a rebound here also.
The problems with Mortgage Resets and the Commerical Real Estate Market losses are going to take a while to play out.
However, not planning to see a big rebound in corporate profits.
The DOW still has yet to rise above it´s 200 Day Moving Average.
If the DOW could break through the 200 on strong volume, that would be more encouraging.

[bazanster2]

Bit of a late post, a few minutes after the Opening Bell.
Had some computer problems.
Going with DOWN on Hump Day,

gl,

baz

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Bit of a late post, a few minutes after the Opening Bell.
Had some computer problems.
Going with DOWN on Hump Day,

gl,

baz

i don't think "DOWN" quite captures it Baz. more like "BLOODY"?

every stock i have on my watchlist is in the red. disheartening to say the least ...

i understand it to a degree however as bad numbers came out today in the factory & service sectors, and the market needed to retrace on recent gains, but i just wish it wasn't hitting MY STOCKS as hard as it is

[bazanster2]

BG,

Going with UP on Thursday,

gl,

baz
---------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Initial Claims ......621k, 1k more than expected by Market.
Productivity.........1.6% better than the 1.2% anticipated.
Unit Labor Costs......3.0% which came in .1% above forecasts.

Algenol Biofuels - Harnessing the Sun to Fuel the World

------------------------------------------
Starnet Gypsy,

Hopefully, you see a lot of green today.
Talking about green, check out the algenolbiofuels.com link

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Hopefully, you see a lot of green today.
Talking about green, check out the algenolbiofuels.com link

LOL ... definately seeing alot of green on their website

not a public company tho, so doesn't trade?

[StarnetGypsy]

WTF?!? I thought that Bernanke was a scholar on the Great Drepression, and now he's talking about raising taxes to reduce the deficit? That's exactly what Japan did and it drug out their recession for another 5/yrs or so ... i swear man, does anyone on the Hill know wtf they're doing?

[bazanster2]

BG,

Looks like we're going to finish the week on a good note.
Going with UP on Friday.
Perhaps another triple digit day.

gl,

baz
------------------------------------------

Economic Reports:
Average Workweek......33.1 hours, down from 33.2 in April ($613.67 from $614.86)
Hourly Earnings.......Up 2 cents or .01%
Nonfarm Payrolls.....345,000, much better than the 526,000 anticipated. Very bullish.
Unemployment .........9.4% a 25 year high.
Consumer Credit 2:00pm(Eastern)

[bazanster2]

Starnet Gypsy,

Sometimes, or should I say often you have to wonder if they know what their doing on Capital Hill.
Some may argue that a few Bankers do.
They managed to shift Bank Bond holders losse's to the Taxpayers and the Fed's Balance sheet.
Much of the money in the future that will be available to be borrowed,will be borrowed to pay back previous borrowing.
Thus crowding out money that would go to more economic productive uses.
Being counterproductive in terms of economic development and activity.
When the 3 trillion of borrowed money this year comes due within 7 years or less, the US won't have the money to repay it,
as we will be running budget deficits for at least 10 years and realistically, as far as the eye can see.
Another point to consider it that the more the United States goes into Debt,
the more the Fed makes because they are major holders of US debt.
Also, the more the dollar is devalued, the gold in their vaults goes up.
Somewhat of a conflicit of interest.
Bankers incourage debt, that´s how they make money.
Higher taxes would take money from the economy.
The Government tends to be wasteful and not very efficient with $$$.
Obama voted for higher taxes 90 times, so he not opposed to dipping into the taxpayer's wallet.
Higher interest rates would also would hurt the economy and cause the debt to increase.
This is what is going to upset the apple cart. An unexpected rise in interest rates.
Even if the Fed continues to buy Bonds and Treasuries to artificially keep interest rates down,
it just increases the amount of money that will be needed to be borrowed later.
It´s a vicious cycle and their caught between a rock and a hard place.
We should have let the free Market work and let the cards fall where they may have.
Because, in the end, we will be paying a lot more than if we had taken our medicine when we should.
.................................................. .........................

As far as algenolbiofuels.com is concerned, they haven't done a IPO yet.
Perhaps at some point. This technology looks promising, so we will need to keep an eye on it.
Still need to do more research and due diligence.

"There are maybe 150 different companies worldwide pursuing biofuels from algae, according to Al Darzins,
a senior manager at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

But most of the other ventures are trying to produce fuel by cultivating algae for the oils they produce.
Algenol says its blue-green algae will produce ethanol naturally, cutting out costly harvesting and processing of the aquatic plants.

"I'm kind of impressed," says Darzins.

Still, economics, not technology, remains the biggest hurdle, he adds.
Various companies have demonstrated that they can produce small amounts of fuel from algae,
but none has figured out how to make it at a price that can compete with gasoline or diesel.
"We don't have the infrastructure yet to grow literally thousands of acres, maybe millions of acres of algae," Darzins says.
In time, engineers may figure out how to cut those processing costs, Darzin says,
but he predicts it will be at least five or 10 years before anyone finds a way to produce commercial quantities."

Looking green for you again today,

gl,

baz

[bazanster2]

BG,

The Dow has risen in 11 of the last 13 weeks and is on its best tear in 26 years.

Major European markets are all lower by more than 1 percent.

Going with DOWN on Monday,

gl,

baz
------------------------------------------------------

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) -- The world's airlines will collectively lose $9 billion this year --
nearly double the previous projections -- and face a slow recovery as the economic crisis saps
air travel and cargo demand, an industry body warned Monday.
The International Air Transport Association, which represents 230 airlines worldwide, increased
its loss estimate from the $4.7 billion it forecast in March, reflecting a "rapidly deteriorating revenue environment."
in the first quarter with 50 major airlines reporting losses of more than $3 billion

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Going with DOWN on Monday,

gl,

baz

lol Baz ... i was gonna screw with you and say DOW was gonna be UP, but i decided not to mess w/you. now, low an behold, it was up by a buck & change (painful miss)

[bazanster2]

BG,

The Dow ended less than 2 points higher after being down 130 points earlier in the session.

The government is set to announce as early as Tuesday morning which of the country's biggest banks
will be able to repay billions in federal bailout dollars in a decision that risks creating a
two-tier banking system -- winners and losers.

Not much to go on, tough call today.
Going to go with Up on Tuesday. (Confidence level: low).
Just hope that Traders will like the news about which banks can repay loans.
How about all of them?

Economic Reports:

Wholesale Inventories 10:00am(Eastern)
-----------------------------------------------
Starnet Gypsy,

That would have been funny.
Going into yesterday it looked like easy pickings.
"Don´t count your chickens before they hatch".
I have read and seen some videos about suspicious trading late in the day.
So called "Painting the Tape". Hmmm????
Really doesn´t matter, a loss is a loss whether by a 100 points or a point.
Just gotta dust yourself off and come out swinging the next day.

gl,

baz

[bazanster2]

BG,


Feels like I betting at Belmont Park. Nipped at the wire twice in a row.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock were set to open higher Wednesday after the
Supreme Court cleared the way for Chrysler to exit bankruptcy and a rise in oil prices.

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened in April for a second month as exports
dropped to the lowest level in almost three years, offering little sign of an end to the worst global
recession in the post-World War II era.

Banks: The Obama administration dropped its plan to cap salaries at bailout recipient companies,
and is expected to announce a compromise Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Going to go with UP on Hump Day.

Would look for market to rally early, then fade later in the day.
The Fed´s Beige Book may disappoint the Market and would think traders less willing to commit late in the day
with Retail Sales adn Initial Claims due before tomorrows Opening Bell.

Economic Reports:
Trade Balance....... $29.2 Billion
Crude Inventories 10:30am(Eastern)
Treasury Budget 2:00pm(Eastern)
Fed´s Beige Book 2:00pm(Eastern)

gl,


baz