Pick The Dow

[bazanster2]

BG,

Look for the early economic reports to set the day´s tone.
Going with the Premarket Indicators 15 minutes prior to Opening Bell.
Pre-Market: Stock Trading Before the Markets Open from CNNMoney.com

gl,

baz
.................................................. .............

Economic Reports:
Initial Claims 8:30am(Eastern)
Q4 GDP-Final 8:30am(Eastern)
GDP Price Index 8:30am(Eastern)

The government is scheduled to report Thursday on the overall economy.
Economists believe that data will show the economy falling at an annual rate of 6.5 percent
in the final three months of last year, even deeper than the 6.2 percent drop in the gross domestic product
reported a month ago.

Great Depression vs. This Recession:
How this recession matches up to the Great Depression - CNNMoney.com

Starnet Gypsy,

In the above link, noted that the Fed increased the money supply by
+140% between September 2008 and March 2009.

Good call today. Well done.

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

Great Depression vs. This Recession:
How this recession matches up to the Great Depression - CNNMoney.com

good link Baz, puts things in perspective ...

[Bostongambler]

+174.75

[Bostongambler]

Down on Friday.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Market has been upbeat of late, staying with the trend.
Going to go with UP on Friday.

gl,

baz
.................................................. ............
Economic Reports:
Personal Income 8:30am(Eastern)
Personal Spending 8:30am(Eastern)
Michigan Sentiment-Rev. 9:55am(Eastern)
.................................................. ..............
Starnet Gypsy,

The link had some interesting numbers.
Still think we have more down time ahead of us.
We´ll see if this Market can rally above 8,000 and make it to 9,000.
Lots of unanswered Questions.
What will be the overall affect of the Stimulus Plan
and the various other steps taken by the Government?
When and for how long?
We can only take it one day at a time.
It's going to be a difficult Market to call for a while.
Life for a Prognosticator is a lot easier during Bull Markets.
View this Rally more on wishful thinking than actual reality.
However, the numbers have been better. Is the trend sustainable?

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

BG,

Market has been upbeat of late, staying with the trend.
Going to go with UP on Friday.

gl,

baz

didn't it surprise us by closing UP last friday too? i'll go with that

[StarnetGypsy]

Looks like we wont be saved by the bell in the last few minutes this time. Too much pressure from engery sector today, oil, gas, heating oil, all down.

[Bostongambler]

I'll start us out. DOWN on Monday.

[bazanster2]

BG,


Good call Friday.
Should have realized that Traders would want to take some profits
before the uncertainty of the weekend.

No Economic reports on Monday,
going with UP to start the week off.
.................................................. ..........................
Starnet Gypsy,

Here are some odds on a Depression:
In a paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research last month, Harvard University professors Robert Barro
and Jose Ursua put the chance of a minor depression (which they defined as a GDP decline of at least 10%) at
about 20% and a 3% chance of a major depression (defined as a GDP drop of at least 25%).
Moody's Economy.com is forecasting a 10% chance of a depression.

Why this is the worst recession, not a depression - Mar. 25, 2009

gl,

baz

[Bostongambler]

-254.16

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by bazanster2

.................................................. ..........................
Starnet Gypsy,

Here are some odds on a Depression:
In a paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research last month, Harvard University professors Robert Barro and Jose Ursua put the chance of a minor depression (which they defined as a GDP decline of at least 10%) at about 20% and a 3% chance of a major depression (defined as a GDP drop of at least 25%).

Moody's Economy.com is forecasting a 10% chance of a depression.

baz

Yeah, thanks Baz. Saw that last week, good rundown ...

[Bostongambler]

DOWN on Tues.

[bazanster2]

BG,

Another good call.
Well done.
For some reason, my post didn't take Sunday night.
Thankfully.
Would have been blown out of the water back to back.
After the drubbing today that the Market took,
it´s going to be another difficult day to make the call.
Going to go with DOWN on Tuesday,

gl,

baz

-----------------------------------------------
Economic Reports:
Consumer Confidence 9:00am(Eastern)
S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index
Chicago PMI
-----------------------------------------------------------
G20: Confronting the crisis
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Nearly 70 percent of the Pentagon's 96 major weapons-buying programs were over budget
in 2008 for combined cost growth of $296 billion above original estimates, congressional auditors said in an annual report
released on Monday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
the number of foreclosures started in February rose to 243,000 from 217,000 in January. About 87,000 homes were repossessed
by banks during February, a 28% jump from the 68,000 foreclosures completed in January. Since the mortgage meltdown hit in
July 2007, 1,395,044 homes have been lost.

[StarnetGypsy]

dunno you guys. respect your ability to pick'em but my gutt is telling me there will be a bunch of shopping for bargains tomorrow. slightly UP?

[Bostongambler]

Good call Gyps. +86.90

[Bostongambler]

Down on Hump Day.

[bazanster2]

BG, StarnetGypsy,

I don´t know about you, but I´m suffering from a bad case of whiplash.
Excellent call StarnetGypsy , always believe in going with your gutt feeling. More often correct than not.
The only gutt feeling I´m having right now requires petobismol
Not going to get any easier on Hump Day as there are a host of economic reports.
It´s been a topsy turvy Market so I will go with DOWN on Hump Day.
Right now, I don´t think I can hit the broad side of a Barn.
Probably best to fade me right now.
Just taking a wait and see attitude.

gl,

baz
.................................................. .............................

Economic Reports:
ADP Employemnt Change 8:15am(Eastern)
Construction Spending 10:00am(Eastern)
ISM Index 10:00am(Eastern)
Pending Home Sales 10:00am(Eastern)
Crude Inventories 10:30am(Eastern)
Auto Sales 2:00pm (Eastern)
Truck Sales 2:00am(Eastern)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A little more than three weeks ago, the S&P 500 (GSPC) sank to a 12-year low.
Investors fled the market like they were engineering a jailbreak, leaving whatever precious they once
had behind, and getting scratched and buffeted in their escape.
Flash-forward those three weeks to the end of March, and we’ve just completed the best one-month
performance the S&P has recorded in six years. In just 13 trading days, the Dow soared 21 percent.

Financials and cyclicals fared best off the early-month lows. Citigroup (C) traded below $1 a share March 5,
but climbed by more than 150% to close the month at $2.53. Bank of America (BAC) climbed 125% off its
March 6 lows, including Tuesday’s 13% advance. Wells Fargo (WFC) improved 82% from March 5.
Among the cyclicals, Alcoa (AA) managed a 50% recovery off its lows earlier this month.

The Dow industrial average remained 40% below where it stood 12 months ago, including a loss of 13%
in the first quarter alone, when it recorded its sixth consecutive quarter of declines, the longest such stretch
since going six-and-out in a run that concluded in 1970.

Seven of the Dow’s 30 components recorded declines in the first quarter, evidence the bears are in charge of, at least, the blue chips.
Stocks To Watch Today : The Worst Of Times, The Best Of Times, All At The Same Time
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The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major cities tumbled by a record 19 percent
from January 2008. It was the largest decline since the index started in 2000. The 10-city index dropped 19.4 percent,
also a new record.

[StarnetGypsy]

Thanks Baz, just lucky tho because even a broken clock is right twice a day, and i just had my 2 hits

It's the end of most company quarters, and i'm thinkin some money may be going into the market tomorrow if there's opportunities for buying, so a modest gain day again ... so my edjamacated guess is UP?

(plus i'm fading you!)

[Bostongambler]

Gyps hits again.

+152.68