Go Back   MajorWager Forums > MW - Online Sportsbooks > Stock Talk
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Stock Talk Stock tips, opinions and analysis

LinkBack Thread Tools
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 10-14-2008, 10:48 PM
drunkguy drunkguy is offline
MW Mod & Writer, Jay Graziani
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 8,678
Send a message via MSN to drunkguy Send a message via Yahoo to drunkguy
Default Hold the Depression Talk

Last Update: 02-Oct-08 12:03 ET

Key leaders have sounded some dire warnings about the fate of the economy should Congress fail to pass a financial relief plan.

Just about any press article you read refers to the current situation as the "greatest crisis since the Great Depression." The latter might be true, yet the tenor of those articles makes it sound as if we are already in another Great Depression or certainly on the cusp of one.

Those articles fail to account for the fact that we haven't even seen two straight quarters of negative GDP, which is the traditional definition of a recession.

Clearly, the economic situation isn't great but keep these statistics in mind: during the Great Depression GDP fell 30%, unemployment exceeded 20%, wholesale prices declined 33% and industrial production plummeted close to 50%.

The latest complete information available showed real GDP up 2.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, the unemployment rate at 6.1%, wholesale prices up 9.6% from 12 months ago, and industrial production down just 1.5% from 12 months ago.

Any attempt to draw comparisons between the current economic environment and the Great Depression is utter nonsense.

What is known of the current situation is that unemployment is rising, consumer spending is sluggish, industrial production is slipping, and housing remains in a slump.

Export growth, however, has been strong, business investment has been rather resilient, and the government... well, the government continues to spend.

Exiting September, though, the market isn't caught up so much by what it knows as it is by what it fears.

The freezing of the credit markets in late summer has been a real sticking point for economists and investors alike in thinking about the near-term prospects for the economy and earnings.

Our third quarter GDP growth forecast has come down to 1.0% (from 2.7% at start of September) and we're expecting inventories to account for half that growth.

While existing home sales are flashing signs of stabilization at depressed levels and inflation pressures appear to be moderating (as expected with the sluggish growth), other data, like the initial claims and personal spending reports, have revealed a weakening trend.

This is an uncertain time for the economy; consequently, we have a very cautious fourth quarter outlook.

The latter point notwithstanding, one can still be certain this isn't the Great Depression.

--Patrick J. O'Hare,
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 10-14-2008, 10:48 PM
drunkguy drunkguy is offline
MW Mod & Writer, Jay Graziani
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 8,678
Send a message via MSN to drunkguy Send a message via Yahoo to drunkguy

of course tis is from 2 weeks ago so i wonder if his opinion changed
Reply With Quote

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Anyone else here in the path of this hurricane/tropical depression??? Uncle B Mess Hall 34 08-29-2008 05:01 PM
Anybody here ever go through depression? ChuckyTheGoat Mess Hall 22 09-06-2006 09:31 PM
Winter Depression Ironlock Mess Hall 13 02-16-2005 11:16 PM
FIRST, SHE CAN'T HOLD HER FOOD IN & NOW SHE CAN'T HOLD HER LIQUOR: 'Growing Pains' actress arrested in DUI crash Louis Cypher The Canteen 2 09-16-2004 11:50 PM

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:49 AM.

Please be advised that if you are wagering over the internet, this is illegal in many jurisdictions. A wagering site may be operating legally at their location but it may still be illegal for you to wager from your location. We suggest you check on the legal situation from any jurisdiction in which you may wager.

Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.0.0 RC6