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Stock Reports Tuesday
08:01 ET Morgan Stanley raises 2004 capex forecast; previews Semi Equip earnings : Morgan Stanley believes that fundamentals in Semiconductor Capital Equipment have improved significantly since guidance was provided in Oct/Nov, and thus firm sees upside to guidance for most companies in the space; sees a 15-20% increase in bookings across the board, followed by guidance for another 20% bookings growth in 1Q04. Firm sees most of the upside in 4Q03 coming from Asian chipmakers. Raises its 2004 capex forecast to $38.8 bln, up 30% y/y and higher than firm's previous forecast of 20-25%.
08:00 ET Bond Market Update : Treasuries are off a bit, having ticked up through 4.074% overnight and then back to 4.113%. The import/export releases today at 8:30 ET are not big movers, unless they have some large effect on the dollar, in which case treasuries may see some spillover. Fed Chairman Greenspan is speaking in Berlin later today while Dallas Fed President McTeer, Charlotte's Olson, and Cleveland's Pianalto have speeches scattered throughout the day. Talk out of the European Central Bank concerning the euro run served to slow dollar bashing. The treasuries are likely to continue to hold near the sticky 4.1% area and the "trend-is-your-friend" bullish attitude should rule the day. The ten-years are currently -05/32nds yielding 4.107%; twos are -01/32nds yielding 1.672%; threes are -04/32nds yielding 2.111%; fives are -04/32nds yielding 3.073%; thirties are -11/32nds yielding 4.996%.
08:00 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. The futures market is higher in an extension of yesterday's winnning session, which left the Nasdaq at a fresh closing 52-week high. The European bourses are higher, with the DAX, CAC, and FTSE up +0.8%, +1.2%, and +0.2%.
07:59 ET Accenture earnings clarification (ACN) 25.91: -- Update -- Company reported two earnings actuals that excluded ex items- $0.27, which excludes a $0.06 one-time gain, and a $0.25 number that ACN is calling "S&P Core Earnings", a measure that reflects adjustments to add back minority interest, includes stock option and related compensation expense, and excludes extraordinary items. It is not clear which number compares to Reuters consensus of $0.27. However, UBS' follow-up note cited $0.27 as comparable to their estimate.
07:51 ET TOY upgraded to Neutral at BofA 12.30: Banc of America upgrades Toys R Us to Neutral from Sell based on the following factors: 1) with the Q4 sales and earnings miss behind the co, there are fewer immediate catalysts to the downside, 2) co is a restructuring candidate, and a complete restructuring could be worth $16-$18, 3) firm thinks WMT is unlikely to be more aggressive in pricing toys than it was in 2003, and although sharp pricing from WMT will continue to pressure TOY's core model, it may represent less of a negative catalyst in 2004. Target is $13.
07:48 ET HP's royalty revenues increased 50% since inception -- Financial Times (HPQ) 24.68: The Financial Times reports HPQ has formed a centralized intellectual property licensing unit which enables it to reap new rewards from royalties on its technology inventions. The new unit, which was quietly formed one year ago, is solely responsible for generating licensing revenue from the computer and printer maker's entire portfolio of patents, copyrights, trademarks and trade secrets - one of the world's largest collections of intellectual property. Joe Beyers, vice-president for intellectual property licensing, said on Monday that HPQ had boosted royalty revenues by 50 per cent in the year since the unit was launched. According to the article, Mr Beyers would not state how much revenue HPQ generated last year from intellectual property royalties.
07:46 ET AmSouth Banc reports in line (ASO) 24.54: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.45 per share, in line with the Reuters Research consensus of $0.45.
07:46 ET Advanced Neuro boosts 2003 outlook, issues Y04 guidance (ANSI) 45.34: Company guides, sees Q4 EPS of $0.18-0.19, vs the Reuters Research consensus of $0.18, and revenues of $25.7 mln, vs an estimate of $24.6 mln; sees Y03 EPS of $0.64-0.65, vs the R.R. consensus of $0.62, and revenues of $91.0 mln vs an estimate of $89.9 mln. Co also guides Y04, sees EPS of $0.87-0.91, vs the R.R. consensus of $0.87, and revenue of $116-121 mln vs an estimate of $113.2 mln.
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