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Old 01-13-2004, 11:22 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default Tech Reports Tuesday

Investors opened the second full week of trading by once again buying large cap tech. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX 560.65 +17.34) jumped 3.19% on Monday for a total of 11.05% since January 02. Advancers outnumbered decliners 8.0:1, with advancers rising 3.3% and decliners slipping 1.0%. This compares against the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC 2111.78 +24.86), which gained 1.19% and is up 5.24% since January 02. The broader Briefing.com Tech Index (BTI), closed up 1.6%. Advancers outnumbered decliners 2.4:1, with advancers rising 3.4% and decliners sliding 2.4%

Friday's jobs report reinforced the sentiment that growth may be moderating, causing investors to buy growth through tech. While we remain moderately bullish on technology shares over the long-term, we once again note that tech valuations quite frequently price in growth and operating margin expectations that significantly exceed recent company performance and industry averages. As a result, tech shares are likely to be volatile near-term. We would take advantage of the volatility to buy into quality, attractively priced names / sell richly priced shares into strength as part of a rebalancing of the tech portion of the portfolio to a neutral market weight. Please visit the Story Stocks and Daily Sector Wrap pages for the latest thinking on investment opportunities across market sectors, and the Page One, Looking Ahead and Economic Briefing pages for broad market perspective and outlook. For active investors and traders, visit the In Play, Swing Trader, and The Technical Take pages for actionable ideas.

After the close, Integrated Silicon Solution (ISSI 19.75 +1.65) reported Q1 EPS of $0.03 on revenue of $40.255MM vs. Reuters Research consensus at ($0.03) on revenue of $37.21MM.

Looking ahead, Linear Technology (LLTC 44.95 +1.25) reports Q2 results after the close on Tuesday, Apple Computer (AAPL 23.73 +0.73), Intel (INTC 34.15 +0.18), Teradyne (TER 27.74 +0.18) and Yahoo! (YHOO 49.74 +1.62) report after the close on Wednesday, and Juniper Networks (23.72 +1.72) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW 5.45 +0.14) report after the close on Thursday
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Old 01-13-2004, 11:23 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default RE: Tech Reports Tuesday

Computer Systems & Peripherals
IBM (IBM) 91.55 +0.34: The Wall Street Journal reported INTC and IBM are contributing to a new fund to defend Linux users against copyright-infringement lawsuits threatened by SCOX. The fund is being established by the Open Source Development Labs, a nonprofit industry consortium based in Beaverton, Oregon.

Silicon Graphics (SGI) 2.95 +0.58: Merriman Curhan initiated Silicon Graphics with a Buy rating and price target of $5. The firm says the co is a leading provider of high-end performance and visualization systems, and long-known for innovation and technology excellence. The co has been winning new customers. Declining sales trends and loss-making history are turning a corner as the firm believes niche growth, aggressive cost-cutting, and efficient working-capital management are taking the firm to profitability this quarter. High operating leverage could raise EPS substantially higher than the firm's FY2005 estimate of $0.12. Also, the specter of bankruptcy has been lifted with the recent debt-exchange offer. The firm arrives at its $5 price target asserting that SGI should trade at least 2x sales (Cray is at 3.2x) or 18.5x P/E multiple for FY2006 EPS of $0.27.

Storage Tech (STK) 27.80 +0.13: After the close, company guided higher. Sees Q4 EPS in excess of $0.55, Reuters consensus is $0.50, sees revenues in excess of $650 mln, consensus $604 mln. Company cited strength in Automated Tape Solutions.

Networking
Cisco (CSCO) 27.03 +0.55: Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.03 +0.55): Janney downgraded Cisco Systems to Hold from Buy based on valuation, as the stock has reached their $26 target and they do not see any near-term catalysts to drive multiple expansion.
Concurrent (CCUR 5.75 +0.80): Raymond James indicates that this morning it picked up a story out of Multi Channel news indicating Cisco plans Tuesday to discuss a new initiative to integrate video-on-demand-server technology into existing headend equipment. Firm believes Cisco's VOD initiative looks promising for Concurrent; that over the past three to four months, discussions have been intensified between Cisco and Concurrent as it relates to the collaboration of VOD promotion / integration. Firm reiterated Strong Buy rating and $6 tgt.


Netopia (NTPA) 17.26 -0.01: Brean Murray raised their FY04-05 EPS ests for Netopia (NTPA) slightly above consensus and raises their target to $22 from $17; firm believes that: 1) DSL providers (NTPA's core customers) will continue to make mkt share gains, 2) the co should soon begin delivering its products to another major incumbent European operator, and 3) the transition by most DSL operators to WiFi could begin to occur in earnest as early as 2H04, which is earlier than anticipated
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Old 01-13-2004, 11:23 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default RE: Tech Reports Tuesday

Internet
24/7 Media (TFSM) 1.79 +0.09: After the close, co raised 2004 sales guidance to $70-$75 mln (consensus $60 mln... only one analyst covers the stock), and says it expects to achieve full-year operating profitability during 2004 (consensus $0.02), citing the contribution from the co's acquisition of Real Media Korea. Co also expects Q4 sequential rev growth of 8-10% (about $13.0-$13.2 mln, vs consensus of $13.7 mln). In addition, co announced that it has promoted Jonathan Hsu as CFO after former CFO Norman Blashka stepped down "to pursue other opportunities."

Overstock (OSTK) 17.39 -0.11: CEO Patrick Byrne stated that COO James Hyde is no longer with the company due to differences that became insurmountable between the two. Said both parties mutually agreed that it would be best for him to step away from his duties (though Mr Hyde may continue for some time in a minor, internal consulting role). Emphasized that Mr Hyde's stepping down had absolutely nothing to do with lawsuit against Jeff and Rachelle Knight.

Sapient (SAPE) 6.58 +0.38: Friedman Billings Ramsey upgraded Sapient Outperform from Mkt Perform and raised their target to $8 from $4.50; firm believes that SAPE is well positioned to benefit from an improving macroeconomic backdrop and better corporate spending; also, firm believes the investment that SAPE has made over the last few years to move its business to lower-cost India could start to pay dividends, and that new rev will be recognized at a very high contribution margin, where gross margin grows from 40% in 2003 to 52% in 2005.

Yahoo! (YHOO) 49.74 +1.62: Yahoo! (YHOO 49.74 +1.62): Piper Jaffray believes that Yahoo! will report some upside to their Q4 rev/EBITDA ests on Wednesday, driven by continued strength in both advertising and search; firm's rev est of $507.9 mln is above the top-end of the co's $462-$502 mln guidance range and consensus of $495.1 mln, and they see EBITDA of $153.6 mln, slightly above the top-end of the co's guidance range of $130-$150 mln.
Lionbridge Technologies (LIOX 8.73 -0.44): American Growth Capital said that Lionbridge Technologies is the most undervalued stock in the payment processor group, despite their belief that LIOX entered 2004 with its best fundamental positioning in years; firm looks for a breakout year for margins, EPS, and cash flow, as margins are expanding, the sales pipeline is swelling, and upside during the next few quarters should lie within the recently-acquired Indian operation; firm estimates 2004 EPS power of $0.40 or more, perhaps 30% higher than consensus and mgmt's conservative guidance.


Semiconductor
Bell Micro (BELM) 10.00 +0.73: Before the open, announced it sees Q4 results meeting or exceeding consensus.

Broadcom (BRCM) 41.01 +4.23: Broadcom (BRCM 41.01 +4.23): CIBC reiterated its Sector Outperform rating ahead of Q4 report and said it is growing more optimistic with regards to 1Q04. Though consensus estimates are for flat revenues in 1Q, firm believes BRCM could buck seasonal trends and post growth of 5% or more.
Transmetta (TMTA 4.06 +0.08): Pacific Growth reduced its 2004 revenue estimate on Equal Weight rated Transmetta to $55 mln from $70 mln (Reuters consensus $71.56 mln) as firm believes early design wins for co's Efficeon processor have been relatively slow to materialize. Additionally, firm believes opportunities for the Crusoe chip have been picking up, but that Transmeta receives only ~$25-$35 per Crusoe chip for a majority of these wins. As a result, firm is pushing out its revenue ramp forecast. Firm remains cautiously optimistic on the story.


Integrated Silicon (ISSI) 19.75 +1.65: After the close, reported Q1 (Dec) earnings of $0.03 per share, $0.06 better than the Reuters Research consensus of ($0.03); revenues rose 91.9% year/year to $40.3 mln vs the $37.2 mln consensus.

Texas Instruments (TXN) 32.80 +1.02: Upped to Buy from Add at Dresdner; tgt $38.

Semi Equipment
There was no news of note in the Semi Equipment industry.
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Old 01-13-2004, 11:23 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default RE: Tech Reports Tuesday

Software
Ascential (ASCL) 27.93 +0.83: Co entered into an OEM License Agreement with PeopleSoft. Ascential granted PeopleSoft a non-exclusive, worldwide license to embed into PeopleSoft's product offerings and distribute certain of Ascential's products, including OEM Editions of its DataStage and MetaStage software applications, and certain connectivity products. PeopleSoft will also have the right to participate in Ascential's customer referral program. The deal extends until January 1, 2008.

Computer Assoc (CA) 27.99 -0.13: The Wells Notice notified the company that the SEC staff is considering recommending that the SEC bring a civil enforcement proceeding against CA for possible violations of the federal securities laws arising from CA's premature recognition of revenue from software license contracts in CA's fiscal year ending March 31, 2000, including revenue from contracts that were not fully executed or otherwise finalized until after the quarter in which the revenue associated with such contracts had been recognized. As previously reported, CA has been responding to a joint investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office and the SEC concerning accounting practices that were in place prior to CA's adoption of its new business model in Oct.

ManTech (MANT) 24.10 -0.22: Co announced that the Dept of Homeland Security has awarded it two contracts worth $33.1 mln; the first contract involves program mgmt and strategic planning requirements, with an estimated value of $11.5 mln, and the second contract involves the design, development, and implementation of IT capabilities and infrastructure, with an estimated value of $21.6 mln.

Manugistics (MANU) 8.14 +1.29: JMP initiated coverage of Manugistics (MANU) with a Strong Buy rating and $10 tgt. Rated MANU a Strong Buy because firm believes that demand for its best of breed supply chain management solutions will increase dramatically as the economy picks up and supply chains once again become constrained. Also expects MANU to benefit from improved sales force productivity due to a recent change in leadership.

Manugistics (MANU) 8.14 +1.29: Manugistics (MANU 8.14 +1.29): JMP initiated coverage of Manugistics with a Strong Buy rating and $10 tgt. Rated MANU a Strong Buy because firm believes that demand for its best of breed supply chain management solutions will increase dramatically as the economy picks up and supply chains once again become constrained. Also expects MANU to benefit from improved sales force productivity due to a recent change in leadership.
Network Assoc (NET16.54 +0.74): SoundView believes NET results/guidance will be a slight positive catalyst for the shares. While the shares are up from depressed levels, firm believes the stock has room to move higher over the course of 2004 as execution improves.


Onyx Software (ONXS) 4.18 -0.50: Company announced preliminary results for Q4, sees revenues of $13 mln, vs a Reuters Research estimate of $15.6 mln, and a non-GAAP operating loss in range of $1.3 mln; the R.R. consensus is a profit of $0.02. Co attributes shortfall to lower than expected license revs primarily reflecting deferral of certain customer purchase decisions and "unplanned gaps in professional services redeployment following completion of major projects ahead of schedule and before new project initiations." For Q104, co does expect to achieve non-GAAP operating profit and sequential qtr improvement in both license and service revs.

Optika Imaging Systems (OPTK) 4.08 -0.20: To be acquired by Stellent for $59 mln. Under terms of the deal, Optika will receive $10 million in cash and approx 4.1 mln shares of Stellent (STEL) common stock. Separately, STEL announces that it expects to meet prior guidance for Q3.

SunGard Data (SDS) 28.99 +0.79: Announced $500 mln senior notes offering.

Telecom Equip
Andrew Corp (ANDW) 18.00 +0.10: Roger Manka joined Andrew from Commworks, a 3Com company, where he was vice president of worldwide sales. Wireless Acquisition LLC announced that it has closed on its agreement to buy selected assets from ANDW for an undisclosed sum. The assets purchased include the Conifer brand name and intellectual property, as well as all of the assets located at ANDW's Broadband Wireless facility in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Juniper Networks (JNPR) 23.72 +1.72: Pacific Growth upgraded Juniper (JNPR) from Equal Weight and raised estimates to reflect strength in the DecQ and the co's robust fundamentals. Firm believes the DecQ benefited from increased spending by ISPs on broadband; enterprise market also picked up. Backlog for Q1 is compelling and co is positioned to gain market share over 2004. At 67x FY05 EPS valuation is rich but warranted. Co and Siemens Information and Communication Networks (ICN) Singapore today announced that they will provide Singapore Telecommunications Limited (SingTel) with advanced routing solutions to expand one of Asia's largest consumer broadband networks. PiperJaffray says its checks on Juniper Networks show that business momentum was very good throughout the quarter. Firm raised its Q4 revenue estimate to $188 mln from $180 mln, but keeps its $0.05 EPS forecast. The firm's checks show that strength came from Asia, continuing the theme from Q3. The Asian market continues to do well for Juniper due to the continued adoption of broadband in that continent. Also, after a weak Q3, European sales rebounded nicely in Q4. Finally, the U.S. market continues to show strength. On the guidance front, the firm expects the co to guide revs flat to slightly up for Q1. Co reports Jan 15 after the close. Pacific Growth upgraded Juniper from Equal Weight and raised estimates to reflect strength in the DecQ and the co's robust fundamentals. Firm believes the DecQ benefited from increased spending by ISPs on broadband; enterprise market also picked up. Backlog for Q1 is compelling and co is positioned to gain market share over 2004. At 67x FY05 EPS valuation is rich but warranted.

UTStarcom (UTSI) 38.90 +1.50: Reuters is running headlines that Chinese co's are set to sign $2 bln worth of contracts, that UTStarcom will announce a contract worth $200 mln, and that Motorola will announce two contracts worth more than $1 bln.

UTStarcom (UTSI) 38.90 +1.50: Reuters reported that Chinese co's are set to sign $2 bln worth of contracts, that UTStarcom will announce a contract worth $200 mln, and that Motorola will announce two contracts worth more than $1 bln.

Telecom Services
Level 3 (LVLT) 6.81 +0.20: Co announced that it has begun offering its (3)Voice Termination services internationally, which is the newest development in its aggressive push into the VoIP market, and will be followed by other new voice products. Today's announcement builds on the co's recent introduction of (3)Tone, an enhanced business voice service.

Liberate Tech (LBRT) 37.62 +0.44: After the close, Liberate announced a subscription-based licensing agreement with Cox Communications (COX). Under the agreement, Liberate will supply Cox with software to enable the delivery of multiple applications, such as DVR, HD and VOD, across multiple platforms, including Motorola and Scientific-Atlanta.

Paradyne (PDYN) 4.60 +0.20: Co announced that ITC^DeltaCom (ITCD) has begun deployment of Paradyne central office media gateways in eight states throughout the southern U.S. By selecting Paradyne's network equipment, one of the southern region's largest competitive telecommunications carriers can deliver more voice lines and greater bandwidth for data over the same physical wireline than previously attainable using traditional network technology.
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