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Old 01-08-2004, 09:31 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default Tech Report Thursday

The Nasdaq is a perfect 4-for-4 in 2004. In baseball, that's called batting a thousand. In a game of nine-ball, it means you have five more shots tough guy. In my collegiate dating life, it meant four requests for dates and four rejects (God bless my wife). Any way you look at it, it is about as good a start to the new year as any bullish-minded investor could hope for as the Nasdaq is up a hefty 3.7% year-to-date.

On Wednesday, the Composite scored a 1.00% gain and the trading action looked almost identical to Tuesday in that stocks dipped in the early-going, but soon reversed course and remained on an upward trajectory into the close. Again, advancers outpaced decliners, but not by a huge margin (1874 vs 1335), and volume at the Nasdaq topped 2.0 bln shares; meanwhile, the telecom equipment and semiconductor shares maintained a leadership position. Biotech and networking stocks also helped pace the Nasdaq's advance.

Intel (INTC 33.99, +3.31%) - a component in Briefing.com's Active Portfolio - was a notable standout as investors responded favorably to a Sanford Bernstein upgrade to Outperform from Market Perform that was based on a belief that above-normal seasonal revenue during 1H04 is increasingly possible and that further gross margin expansion, resulting from cost savings, is not entirely discounted. Intel's strong showing set a positive tone for the SOX Index which, like the Nasdaq, is also up 3.7% for the year.

The telecom equipment sector was hotbed of buying activity, too, as Nortel Networks (NT 5.68, +19.33%) and Lucent (LU 3.51, +7.01%) combined accounted for 16% of the total volume (1.70 bln shares) at the NYSE. The former company, arguably, was the stock of the day as it soared in a response to a number of upgrades and an announcement that Verizon had selected it to be the exclusive provider of the company's local and long distance Class 4 and Class 5 VoIP switches in new offices over the next 18 months; NT will also be the exclusive supplier of VZ's VoIP and multimedia services infrastructure over the next 18 months. Lucent, for its part, announced an agreement to expand the third-generation (3G) CDMA2000 1X network for VIVO, Brazil's largest mobile operator.

Some profit taking may be in order following the recent surge, but overall, it is clear that the bullish uptrend remains intact, and like it or not, technology shares remain in demand. Then again, that is normally the case this time of year
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Old 01-08-2004, 09:31 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default RE: Tech Report Thursday

Computer Systems & Peripherals
M-Systems (FLSH) 20.00 +1.25: Co and Samsung Electronics entered into a cooperation agreement. M-Systems has granted a license to its patents to Samsung for licensing fees and a certain allocation of NAND flash memory at favorable terms.

RealNetworks (RNWK) 6.05 +0.13: The Wall Street Journal reported RealNetworks is becoming the latest to join the fray of companies selling songs for 99 cents each over the Internet. The co will introduce the song-downloading site as part of a revamped version of RealPlayer. The co's music site will face formidable competition from others in the song-download market, notably the market leader Apple Computer Inc.'s (AAPL) iTunes Music Store. In addition, the co has also announced consumers who download the new RealPlayer 10 in the next 10 days will receive first song download for just 10 Cents.

Research In Motion (RIMM) 72.86 +0.17: Morgan Stanley upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight. Although longer-term concerns remain intact, channel checks indicate the co's hardware shipments will likely be higher in F4Q04 than previously thought. The firm has no changes to estimates, though, as it believes higher consumer-driven shipments should result in lower ASP and ARPU... Separately, RIMM disclosed in F-10 filing that it will offer 9 mln shares, with an additional 1.35 mln shares reserved for overallotments.

Sandisk (SNDK) 67.83 +3.49: Thomas Weisel raised estimates based on strong holiday sales of flash cards, and a healthy supply/demand outlook for 2004. Firm's Q4 EPS est goes to $0.88 from $0.71 (Reuters consensus $0.73) and rev est to $378 mln from $352 mln (consensus $345.1 mln). Firm raises FY04 outlook to $2.85 from $2.50 (consensus $2.52). Firm also says that checks suggest that Q4 was exceptional, with potentially unfulfilled demand driving better than typical seasonality in 1Q

Networking
SI Intl (SINT) 19.05 -1.52: BB&T downgraded to Hold from Buy based on the impending recompete announcement regarding the company's C4ISR contract with the U.S. Air Force Space Command.

Internet
1-800-FLOWERS (FLWS) 10.48 -0.47: After Wednesday's close, company guided below consensus for Q2 (Dec), sees EPS of approximately $0.20, Reuters consensus is $0.21, on revenues of approx $213 mln, consensus $217.5 mln.

DoubleClick (DCLK) 10.70 -0.30: Co announced appointment of Pete Krainik as Chief Marketing Officer. Krainik joins DoubleClick's executive team from Siebel Systems, Inc. where he was Vice President and General Manager of the Consumer Goods division.

FreeMarkets (FMKT) 8.14 +0.02: Co announced that Payless is using FreeMarkets QS and supporting services to drive savings and efficiencies across its operations. The agreement extends the relationship that FreeMarkets and Payless began in 2002.

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Old 01-08-2004, 09:32 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default RE: Tech Report Thursday

Semiconductor
Diodes Inc (DIOD) 22.09 +1.34: Before the open, company said it sees EPS up approx 20% from $0.18 reported in Q3, which equates to $0.22 per share, First Call consensus is $0.18, revenues up 10% from $34.9 mln reported in Q3, or $38.4 mln, First Call consensus is $35.1 mln (single analyst).

Infineon (IFX) 15.19 +0.69: Co launched the world's first NAND compatible flash chip based on TwinFlash technology. Initial production of the 512Mbit flash chip has started in Infineon's 200mm DRAM Dresden facility. Infineon has expanded its memory product portfolio significantly by including flash and can now allocate its memory production capacities flexibly between DRAM and flash.

NVIDIA (NVDA) 25.02 +0.22: Amtech Research raised its 12-month price objective on NVIDIA (NVDA) to $35 from $28 as recent developments have given firm higher confidence in its "what if" FY06 revenue target of $2,350mm (vs. its formal estimate of $2,250mm).

Pixelworks (PXLW) 12.90 +0.95: Before the open, said it sees EPS of approximately $0.09, up from previous company guidance of $0.06-0.07, Reuters consensus is $0.06. PXLW now sees revenues of approx $40.5 mln, up from previous company guidance of $37-38.5 mln, Reuters consensus is $36.9 mln.

Semi Equipment
AXT Inc (AXTI) 3.68 +0.41: Co announced that it expects Q4 rev of approx $9.1 mln, vs consensus of $8.63 mln. The co also noted that primary markets served by AXT substrates, including wireless handsets and red and yellow light emitting diodes, are expected to grow during 2004.

Software
Mentor Graphics (MENT) 17.53 +1.81: Before the open, company issued upside preannouncement for Q4 (Dec), sees revenues in excess of previous company guidance of $190 mln, Reuters consensus $188.75 mln. MENT still sees earnings of approx $0.30 (consensus $0.31) as operating expenses were adversely affected by strength of Euro and incentive payments to Calibre engineers triggered by strong performance of Calibre product line.

Microsoft (MSFT) 28.21 -0.03: The New York Post reported that Microsoft will try to leapfrog archrival Apple when it introduces the latest in media players - an iPod for movies. The Portable Media Center will be unveiled by Bill Gates at a keynote Wednesday tonight at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Microsoft's version would be preloaded with Windows software, allowing the portable media center to double as a note-taking device and an organizer.

SS&C Techs (SSNC) 30.29 +0.19: After the close, company said it expects Q4 (Dec) EPS of $0.27-0.28 (previous $0.23-0.26) and revenues of $17.8 mln (previous $16-18 mln), Reuters Research consensus is $0.25 and $17 mln, respectively.

Veritas Software (VRTS) 39.22 +0.26: Pacific Growth believes that the Veritas Software (VRTS) experienced a very strong Q4 and will likely report revenues $10-$30 mln above firm's published $495M number. The Reuters Research consensus revenue est for the qtr is $490.50 mln.

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Old 01-08-2004, 09:32 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default RE: Tech Report Thursday

Telecom Equip
C-COR.net (CCBL) 14.42 +1.72: Before the open, company said it sees Q2 (Dec) EPS of $0.11-0.14, ex items, up from previous company guidance of $0.04-0.07, Reuters consensus is $0.06. CCBL now sees revs of $60-61 mln, up from previous company guidance of $57-60 mln, consensus is $59.45 mln. Company cites acceleration of revenue from customer acceptances of software deliveries that occurred in Q2 for upside.

EXFO (EXFO) 4.14 +0.15: Before the open, reported Q1 (Nov) loss of $0.05 per share, excluding a one-time gain of $0.02 per share, Reuters Research consensus is ($0.06); revenues fell 9.6% year/year to $16.0 mln vs the $14.7 mln consensus. Company sees Q2 revenues of $14-17 mln, consensus $15.7 mln; EXFO sees Q2 GAAP loss of $0.06-0.09, not clear if comparable to consensus of ($0.04).

Lucent (LU) 3.51 +0.23: Merrill Lynch thinks NT's competitive win at Verizon carries more weight than Lucent's (LU) win with Brazil-based Vivo, and considers it a net negative for LU; firm says Nortel's VoIP win at Verizon is not shocking given its leading mkt position in the segment, yet they considered Lucent to be a serious contender for at least a piece of the business, especially following its announced win with Qwest late last year; firm believes the lack of VoIP wins for Lucent helps justify the valuation discount to key competitor Nortel.

Nortel (NT) 5.68 +0.92: Verizon (VZ) will accelerate the evolution of its nationwide wireline network to packet-switching technology and has selected Nortel Networks (NT) as its Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP) equipment provider. Key elements of VZ's arrangement with NT are: replacement of a number of VZ's local switches with NT's switches and VoIP gateways, as well as using the NT's switches to expand the co's long-distance network. NT will be the exclusive provider of VZ's local and long distance Class 4 and Class 5 VoIP switches in new offices over the next 18 months. NT will also be the exclusive supplier of VZ's VoIP and multimedia services infrastructure over the next 18 months. Finally companies will engage in collaborative selling initiatives aimed at upgrading VZ's enterprise (PBX) customers to VoIP.

Telecom Services
PanAmSat (SPOT) 20.85 -0.84: Morgan Stanley downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight as pricing trends remain weak internationally and oversupply will likely continue to cap pricing growth. Adjusting for one-time items and the firm believes the co will generate 3% revenue growth and 15% EPS growth in 2004.
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