ONLINE SPORTSBOOKS

Go Back   MajorWager Forums > MW - Online Sportsbooks > Stock Talk
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Stock Talk Stock tips, opinions and analysis

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-11-2003, 10:14 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 45,795
Default Tech Report Thursday

Looking at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX 484.56 +5.82), which closed up 1.22%, one would not think the selling in tech shares continued on Wednesday. In fact, tech shares closed down, on average, 1.5%. Decliners outnumbered advancers 2.4:1, with decliners losing 3.4% and gainers adding 2.5%. This compares unfavorably against the SOXX where advancers led decliners 2:1, with advancers rising 1.8% and decliners shedding 1.4%.

Within the broader Briefing.com Tech Index, decliners sported higher P/SG (price-to-sales/sales growth) multiples than advancers, offering support for our thesis that there is a bifurcation taking place within the market, between the richly valued and the less richly valued names. Interestingly, the decliners in the SOXX were companies with weak competitive positions, suggesting a flight to quality. But these companies sported lower P/SG multiples than advancing stocks, suggesting investors are willing, at least for now, to trade into quality names regardless of price. This can only hold for so long.

Near-term, the direction of greatest resistance for tech shares is higher. Gains will be limited near-term by the growing fear of a rate increase and concerns over valuations that already price in growth and margins expectations that far exceed actual performance. While we remain modestly bullish on tech over the long-term, we stress the need to be highly selective and would continue to protect gains as opportunities permit.-
__________________
"JJ Call me a 2'x4' again on the forum and your going to pay" Sportman.
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 12-11-2003, 10:14 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 45,795
Default

Computer Systems & Peripherals
EMC Corp (EMC) 12.37 +0.11: Company announced that it now expects to close the Documentum (DCTM) acquisition on Dec 18 and gain $30-35 mln in revenue from DCTM's Q4. EMC cites added revenue and "current market conditions" for guidance revision, EMC expects Q4 revenues of $1.8-1.825 bln vs Reuters consensus of $1.746 bln (First Call consensus is $1.76 bln). Goldman Sachs upgradeD In-Line to OUTPERFORM. Target $15. Firm believes the recent sell-off presents an attractive opportunity. Goldman Sachs upgraded EMC Corp (EMC) to Outperform from In-Line, as they believe the recent sell-off presents an attractive opportunity; firm thinks their is a strong likelihood that their above-consensus ests represent the base case for the co, and says that over the last 6 months their checks with users have increasingly named EMC as the vendor of choice in the storage space; target is $15. Firm also raises their view of the IT Hardware sector to Attractive from Neutral, as 2004 budgets are firming at the same time that expectations are fast becoming more rational.

Maxtor (MXO) 9.55 -0.36: Co announced that its Maxtor QuickView consumer electronics hard drives have been selected for Toshiba's HDD & DVD video recorder series -- RD-XS32, RD-XS35 and RD-X4. These new offerings come equipped with Maxtor QuickView 80GB, 160GB, and 250GB hard disk drives which are designed specifically for consumer electronics applications.

Network Engines (NENG) 6.10 -3.92: Co announced that its distribution agreement with EMC Corp (EMC) has been amended, effective Jan 1, 2004. The amendment extends the term of the agreement until the end of 2005 and provides for increased costs to Network Engines relating to the sale of EMC-approved host bus adapters (HBAs). Because of the amendment, there will be a decline in the gross profit related to the sale of EMC-approved HBAs, which will in turn have a negative impact on the company's distribution operations gross profit. This decline in distribution operations gross profit is expected to have a negative impact on consolidated gross profit and operating margins beginning in the quarter ending March 31, 2004.

Networking
Brocade (BRCD) 5.52 +0.03: Cut to In-Line from Outperform at Goldman Sachs. In conjunction with Goldman's upgrade of EMC to Outperform (see 07:35 comment) and coverage view to Attractive, from Neutral, the distribution of ratings mandated by firm policy (no more than 25% of stocks can be rated Outperform) requires Goldman to realign its prior rating on Brocade (BRCD). While the original idea is taking longer to play out than hoped, firm thinks stock could still deliver solid performance over the next 3-6 months.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) 23.78 +0.55: Reuters reported that Cisco is expected to unveil a new top-of-the-line router today, allowing it to catch up to rival Juniper Networks (JNPR)The 12800 Router has a capacity to handle 40 gigabits of online traffic a second, or four times the capacity of its present 12416 Router. Juniper has had a 40-gigabit router on the market for about 18 months. No new guidance out of WW Analyst Conference (CSCO) 23.45 +0.22: CEO Chambers: conference to focus on industry trends, strategy and positioning but discussion/data points should not be construed as revision to guidance.

Internet
Digital River (DRIV) 23.35 +1.41: RBC Capital upgraded Digital River (DRIV) to Outperform from Sector Perform, saying the recent sell-off appears unwarranted; firm says checks indicate that business remains on track to post modest upside to the co's conservative Q4 guidance, that demand for security-related software remains brisk, and that the co has not seen any unusual cannibalization from last qtr's strong virus sales or impact from CA's promotion; firm says the co should also see a benefit from a full qtr's worth of business from Macromedia and good holiday PC sales to date, and they think the co's int'l business could reach a significant inflection point in mid-2004. Digital River and j2 Global Communications announce that the co's have signed an e-commerce agreement, which calls for DRIV to provide JCOM with a multi-channel e-commerce product to support the online marketing and sales of its PaperMaster Pro software. The recently launched initiative includes a branded online store, access to a channel of 600 online retailers, and joint e-marketing opportunities across DRIV's e-commerce network of nearly 34k co's.

eBay (EBAY) 55.40 +0.55: Prudential raised their 2003-04 ests above consensus and raised their target to $66 from $60 for eBay (EBAY), saying their latest statistical analysis suggests that the co is on track to significantly outperform their initial Q4 expectations; firm says listings growth in the core US stie appears to have accelerated in Q4 (although they believe the success rate and the ASP are lower than in the year-ago qtr), listings growth on eBay Germany appears to have accelerated in Q4, and firm believes that eBay U.K. will continue to exhibit hyper-growth in Q4.
JP Morgan initiated coverage of priceline.com (PCLN) with an Underweight rating; firm says they are concerned with increasing competition, constrained supply, limited inventory commitments, further deterioration in the opaque air mkt, and limited int'l penetration.


Net2Phone (NTOP) 5.50 -0.23: After the close, reported Q1 (Oct) loss of $2.6 mln, which based on diluted shares outstanding provided in the income statement, equates to a loss of $0.04 per share, $0.13 better than the Reuters Research consensus of ($0.17); revenues fell 14.6% year/year to $20.4 mln vs the $20.9 mln consensus.

Raindance (RNDC) 2.19 +0.01: Granted first VoIP patent.

RealNetworks (RNWK) 4.81 -0.22: Co announced that users of its Rhapsody Internet jukebox service played more than one million songs per day on average in November, a jump of more than 17% from October
__________________
"JJ Call me a 2'x4' again on the forum and your going to pay" Sportman.
Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 12-11-2003, 10:15 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 45,795
Default

Semiconductor
Altera (ALTR) 22.89 +0.56: After the close, co said it still expects Q4 revenue in the range of $214-220 mln, Reuters estimate is $218 mln.

Atmel (ATML) 5.39 -0.31: After the close, company said it now sees Q4 revenues of approx $358.7-368.7 mln (up about 7-10% from Q3), vs the Reuters Research consensus of $347.9 mln, based on stronger-than-expected gross margins. Co and On Track Innovations (OTIV 9.45) announced that their contactless secure microcontroller solution has been selected by MasterCard for use in its MasterCard PayPass deployments in the US. Using MasterCard PayPass, consumers simply tap or wave their payment card on a specially equipped merchant terminal, eliminating the need to swipe a card through a reader.

ESS Tech (ESST) 15.35 +1.56: Company raised Q4 guidance, now sees pro forma (non-GAAP) EPS of $0.19-0.23, vs the Reuters Research consensus of $0.11 and prior guidance of $0.10-0.13, and revenues of $79-82 mln, vs an estimate of $62.6 mln and previously guided revs of $65-68 mln, due to growth in all market segments.

Intel (INTC) 30.42 +0.17: Co announced it is combining its communications-related businesses into a single organization: the Intel Communications Group (ICG). Separately, the company announced that Ron Smith, Intel senior vice president and general manager of Intel's WCCG unit, will retire early next year.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) 9.85 -0.27: Dow Jones reports that chip foundry giants Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and United Microelectronics (UMC 4.89) said they suffered few effects from Taiwan's biggest earthquake this year, which shook the southeastern part of the island Wednesday. TSM says there was no obvious impact and it did not shut any fabs.

TriQuint Semi (TQNT) 6.99 -0.08: After the close, co raised Q4 guidance to $0.03-$0.04 in GAAP EPS, 32-33% gross margins, and $85-$87 mln in sales; previous guidance was ($0.02-$0.04) in EPS, 30-32% gross margins, and $80-$83 mln in revs. "We are updating and raising our guidance for Q4 2003 because our shipments and bookings have been very strong so far this quarter. End market demand for our products for wireless phone applications has been extremely strong. We continue to gain share with our new products and continue to execute our plan to reduce costs and improve profitability."

Semi Equipment
Photronics (PLAB) 18.30 +1.52: ThinkEquity upgradedPhotronics (PLAB) to Overweight from Equal Weight, as they believe the more stable pricing environment for photomasks and better yields at second tier foundries bode well for the co; although Q4 results and Q1 guidance are lackluster, firm believes Q2 (April) should represent an inflection point for PLAB; maintains $29 target. Firm also reiterates their Strong Buy on DPMI, which is a peer of PLAB and exposed to the same industry drivers.

Rudolph Tech (RTEC) 22.25 -0.32: Co commented at the First Albany Capital Annual Growth Conference that it expects Q4 rev growth to be at the high end of its previously stated guidance of 6-10%.
__________________
"JJ Call me a 2'x4' again on the forum and your going to pay" Sportman.
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 12-11-2003, 10:15 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 45,795
Default

Software
Carreker (CANI) 12.57 -1.58: Before the open, reported Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.05 per diluted share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.01 (1 analyst surveyed); revenues fell -8.2% year/year to $31.40 mln vs the $31.0 mln First Call consensus

Evolving Systems (EVOL) 14.44 +2.01: Hearing that newsletter calling name a buy due to sell-off due to confusion over number portability; newsletter reportedly saying that AT&T has finally admitted that Evolving Systems' (EVOL) technology is not to blame for recent number portability issues.
WR Hambrecht maintained its Buy on Cerner (CERN). The firm believes the recent weakness in the stock is overdone, as the co is well positioned to win at least one of the remaining three contracts in the U.K. (see 9:24 ET InPlay for IDXC contract win). The firm's $45 price target is based on 30x the 2004 EPS estimate of $1.57, in line with the growth rate. The firm believes the gloves will come off in round 2. The Southern region contract should goto IDX/Fujitsu, the East/East Midlands contract to Cerner/Sema for $1.9 bln and the West & West Midlands is too close to call, but Cerner/IBM may have a slight advantage on the $2.1 bln contract.


Evolving Systems (EVOL) 14.44 +2.01: Hearing that newsletter calling name a buy due to sell-off due to confusion over number portability; newsletter reportedly saying that AT&T has finally admitted that Evolving Systems' (EVOL) technology is not to blame for recent number portability issues.

FactSet (FDS) 38.47 -0.06: Thomas Weisel reiterated their Outperform on FDS, saying the stock's recent weakness runs counter to positive industry fundamentals; while the stock has declined 25.8% from its Sept high, firm notes the positive industry factors: 1) equity mutual fund inflows are rising despite the difficulties of a few high profile firms, 2) employment in the U.S. securities industry has been rising, and 3) capital raising has increased, which is a positive for FDS's investment banking customers since it relieves pressure on the information services and hiring budgets of these firms.

FindWhat.com (FWHT) 16.32 -0.13: Co guided full yr 2003 outlook to $0.51 vs previous guidance of $0.50 (Reuters consensus $0.50); puts full yr revs at $71.5 mln vs previous guidance of $70 mln (consensus $70.65 mln). "We have seen a strong seasonal uplift in the FindWhat.com Network thus far in Q4 2003, leading to today's increase in guidance."

Microsoft (MSFT) 26.59 +0.21: The Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column highlights MSFT given its stock being up a "measly" 2% this year versus the skyrocketing Nasdaq being up 43%. According to the article, the co's problems are due to the shifting taste of investors coupled with growing skepticism about the co's growth prospects. Given the co's performance this year, some people are starting to look at the company as a "value" stock. The co's shares trade at a multiple of about 26 times earnings of the past 12 months, which is high compared with the historic P/E of the market but inexpensive compared with other tech stocks. The current P/E of the Nasdaq 100 is 64 and MSFT has traded with a P/E as high as 76 in 1999. Rick Sherlund, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, believes ORCL's earnings next week could boost the stock. He states, "We'll be looking at Oracle as a possible catalyst to demonstrate that the software business is beginning to show tangible improvement."

Systems & Comp (SCTC) 16.34 +1.84: Co and SunGard Data Systems (SDS) have reached a definitive agreement for the acquisition by SunGard of all of the shares of SCT for $16.50 per share in cash. Based on SCT's approx 35.4 million fully diluted common shares outstanding, the transaction has an aggregate value of approx $584 mln. The acquisition is not expected to have a material impact on SunGard's financial results.

Unisys (UIS) 15.89 -0.59: After the close, CFO backed Y03 EPS of $0.77 including $0.06 in pension income.

Telecom Equip
Arris Group (ARRS) 6.23 -0.25: American Technology Research says that VoIP is a major focal point from cable operators speaking at two media investor conferences ongoing this week. Firm believes investor interest in VoIP will grow as select cable markets launch in 2004 with massive deployment in 2005. There are few equipment plays with significant exposure, but says Arris Group (ARRS) is among the highest, with 25% of 2003 sales from cable-IP related products increasing to 30-35% in 2004. Firm believes that Arris is well positioned for increased spending by cable operators on products to support VoIP services.

Ciena (CIEN) 6.35 -0.26: Ciena is scheduled to report Q4 results before the open tomorrow, with guidance standing at ($0.08)-($0.10) in EPS and $65.1-$71.9 mln in sales, and consensus at ($0.09) and $70.3 mln. Thomas Weisel expects an in-line qtr and does not expect to see strong acceleration until mid-2004, although positive "directional" comments by mgmt on CY04 and/or inventory build would likely signal meaningful growth on the horizon. Firm expects cash burn to remain high in Q4, but thinks significant improvements likely will begin in Q1. Also, similar to the inventory uptick that SCMR saw, firm would not be surprised to see CIEN's inventories rise $3-$5 mln QoQ as the co builds for GigBE. Firm expects CIEN to take an optimistic tone, and while mgmt is not likely to provide guidance beyond Q1, firm expects a more upbeat tone on future rev opportunities.

Telecom Services
BellSouth (BLS) 26.96 -0.25: Co announced that it has agreed to sell its interest in the Danish wireless provider, Sonofon, for 3.68 billion Danish Kroner (currently equaling approx US$600 million) to Telenor ASA. Morgan Stanley downgraded BellSouth (BLS) to Equal-Weight from Overweight based on valuation, as the share are up 16% in Q4 and 22% since the end of Q1 2003. Target is $28.

LCC Int'l (LCCI) 6.01 +0.26: Punk, Ziegel, & Co are reiterated its BUY rating and increased price target to $8 per share after LCC Intl (LCCI) completed its secondary offering at $4.10 per share (note that Punk Ziegel was a manager on the deal). Despite the pressure on the stock price since co announced the offering during the beginning of Sept, Punk believes the business fundamentals continue to improve evidenced by its 3Q03 results and significant backlog; believes co will benefit from favorable wireless spending trends worldwide driven by wireless number portability in the U.S. and continuing build out and deployment of networks in Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin. Firm states that 4Q03 will represent the beginning of sustained profitability and anticipate co to leverage off its relatively fixed infrastructure with its strong backlog providing visibility well into Y04.
__________________
"JJ Call me a 2'x4' again on the forum and your going to pay" Sportman.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:11 PM.

Please be advised that if you are wagering over the internet, this is illegal in many jurisdictions. A wagering site may be operating legally at their location but it may still be illegal for you to wager from your location. We suggest you check on the legal situation from any jurisdiction in which you may wager.
 

Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.0.0 RC6