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Old 12-11-2003, 03:55 AM
bazanster2 bazanster2 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,906
Default Commodity Notes

Commodity Notes on Dec.10th 2003.......Commodity Notes Dec. 15th
================================================== ====
Grains:
================================================== ====
Barley...138.4, sluggish.Trading flat, at 1.37

Canola...365.9 and looking bearishalso trading flat, closed at 367.8

Corn.....249.3 on weak volume.Up to 254.3 on continued weak volume

Cotton...sharp rise and pull back. Another rally in sight?Closed @ 70.2

Flaxseed..256.5 Huge plunge. Could be a speculative bounce.
Would put "buy at" order in. Make it begin to rebound. It could
continue to plunge. The one would wait it bottom's out long term.
tracking sideways, closed at 256.5

Oats..strong down ward trend. Nice rally this week to 147.3, but closed
Friday at it's low 144.2


Rice..Up 100% since beginning of the year. Close near high. See it continuing to run.
Short term bullish, awaiting long term turn around to short. Steep drop this week.
Appears to have broken upward trend. Shorting at 8.69


Soybeans...rallied into last October and has settled into a trading range.
Would speculate that prices will be lower in 2 months.Not much action this week.
Currently at 776.1


Soybean Meal...Sharp late summer rally has now pull backed.
Imagine lower prices ahead. (225.7)Closed week at 231.0, reflecting tight
trading range since early November


Soybean Oil...rallying strongly, should continue. would focus on catching top.
continued trend up on weak volume. Closed at 28.87

Wheat..has been rallying since early April.Sharp drop this week to 380.2,
Appear to have broken below long term trend. Would short if falls below 362.0


Hard Red Spring Wheat...rallying with the rest of the grain complex.
Traded flat this week.


================================================== ======
Meat Complex:
================================================== ======
Cattle..drop below 95 a bad sign. Fast and Slow Stochastic's inverse.
Has rallied from 70 cents in early June to Over a Dollar in early October.
Also broke below 95.00. Volume weak.

Cattle Feeder..had huge run, then plunged.Headed lower, closed at 94.550

Hogs Lean...downward trend.Trading sideways, Closed at 49.85

Pork Bellies....trading sideways, if it hits 80, headed lower.Sharp
drop this week, see prices going lower if falls below 83.00


================================================== =====
Energy Complex:
================================================== =====
Brent Crude Oil..trading in tight range ($26-$30)Trading near top
of trading range 30.37


Crude Oil.......Tight range between ($32-$28) Also trading near top
of trading range 33.04


Gas-Oil...Volume suggest Higher prices ahead.263.75

Heating Oil..gradual upward movement. Not enough to intice speculation.
Nice spike up to .9256 Closed week near high

Natural Gas..went from $4.93 late November and has spiked to Over $7.00
Closed near low. Bearish for the next day. Imagine that as Winter goes on,
prices will be headed even higher. Going into Winter with bad supply/demand numbers.
The worse the weather, the higher prices. Would wait for pull back for speculation.
Good example of High Volume leading prices.Closed week Up at 7.22, expecting
upward trend to continue into winter with sharp correction


Propane..been trading around .5500 since last April. Not much movement.
Strong rally this week, pushing prices to .6475

Unleaded Gas..another in tight trading range the last 3 months.
Basically between .9000 and .8000 Closed at .9002 for a good week.



================================================== ===
Miscellaneous Commodities
================================================== ===

Cocoa...Had huge a huge run the last 2 years. Has retracted much of that
bull market. Currently some speculative buying of late. Trading between 1600-1400.
Spiked up this week to over 1750 before pulling back to close at 1664, Up ward trend

Coffee...negative supply/demand numbers have send prices to historically low prices.
Recent rally not accompanied by strong volume, so suspect a pull back.
Slight pull back this week, closed at 63.00

Lumber....on slight upward slope. Higher interest rates will eventually affect this market.
Traded down this week. Closing at 284.2, break below 275.00 bearish

BFP Milk..just underwent a classic boom-bust cycle in commodities.
Skyrocketing one day, shot down the next. Good saddle point.
Trended slightly up. Closed at 11.68

Butter..little movement in this market for a speculator.
Nice upward move for the week. Closed at 127.3

Orange Juice..poor supply/demand numbers. Historically low price. Expecting
lower to sideway's trading. Good opportunity for long term specualtion.
Watching 2004 November contracts with 95 cent and 90 strike price at the moment.
As soon as market picks up, will go long.Trended lower all week to close at
68.30


Sugar #11..Near Historical lows. Another good one to wait til a turn around
and go long 18 months out or so.Huge trading range of 90 cents on
Friday to close at 5.80 for the week.


Sugar #14..trending down.Continued downward trend for the week. Closed at 20.45


================================================== ==
Metals
================================================== ==
Copper High Grade..been bullish since the 65's and expect it to break above $1.00
on the improving economy.Closed at New Yearly high at .9865, looking for a
continued rally.


Gold...US Dollar index back to where it was in last 1996. At some point would
expect some sort of bear market rally. See interest rates headed up.
No reason not to be bullish on Gold. Like Gold Stocks in South Africa, Austrailia
and Canada.Trended up this week to break above the key $400 mark, off 9 dollars
on Saddam's capture. Should be some softness here, but continue to be very bullish
long term. Will take higher US interest rates to slow down rally.


Palladium..once traded over $1000, closed at $188.80
Always a good long term investment, should eventually have a catch up rally.
Need better demand/supply numbers.Nice rally last week to 210.85, continued
to see a catch up rally on strenghting ecomony. Closed at 210.85


Platinum..has rallied strongly the last year and a half. Very bullish long term.
Great long term supply/demand numbers.Rallied strongly this week, hitting
new yearly high and closing at $819.4, should head higher.


Silver..been rallying since April. Should continue to do well.
More susceptible to the economy than gold. Gold gets help from weakness in the dollar.
Also participated in current Metals rally, closing at $5.62

================================================== ===
Currencies
================================================== ===

US Dollar Index...pretty much straight downhill since Jan. 2002 Saddam's capture
should give short term lift to US Dollar.

Australian Dollar...has rallied strongly.
British Pound.......ditto
Canadian Dollar.....ditto
Euro FX.............ditto
Janpanese Yen......up ward trend, but no great appreciation.
Mexican Peso.......breaking below 15 year lows.
Swiss Franc.......good appreication.

Euro Dollar......strong rally.
Euro Yen.........flat sideway's movement

Nikkei...............Had rallied to 11,000 but pull back to 10,000.
Tough call, suspect it will move above 11,000 again.Sluggish downward movement
this week. Would make break above 10,500 before wading in


Treasury Bonds.......Long term bearish about Bonds.Expect bonds will have a good week.
Watching Foreign buying numbers

Treasury Notes(2Yr.)...been rallying and have pull back a little.
CRB Index..a break above 260 would be very bullish.Rallied this week, before pulling
on Friday.


==================================================

these notes are done in hopes of better keeping track of the various Markets.

thanks,

baz
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