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Old 12-04-2003, 09:56 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default Tech Report Thursday

Tech shares slipped 0.8% as decliners outnumbered advancers 1.9:1. Advancers gained 3.3% and decliners lost 3.1%. Investors found relief in the SEMI Capital Equipment Consensus Forecast which called for double digit growth in 2004 and 2005 but little that would cheer shares up in the realization that the industry's growth expectations fall far short of investor expectations. With few exceptions, semiconductor equipment shares, which opened the session modestly higher, closed the day lower by as much as 6%.

This devaluation/revaluation process is taking place across tech as investors assess company prospects against the latest industry growth forecasts and market valuations. Investors will be taking a hard look at Synopsys (SNPS 31.25 +0.25) which reported Q4 EPS above consensus but lowered guidance for Q1 and F04. Management guided for F04 revenue of $1.2-1.25B (+2-6% Y/Y). As noted in the Q4 preview, SNPS will need to deliver revenue growth in the high-teens and achieve fairly substantial margin expansion for investors to justify owning shares at current valuation. Also under scrutiny are National Semiconductor (NSM 43.50 -0.80), reporting Q2 results, and Intel (INTC 33.34 -0.51), hosting a mid-quarter business update
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Old 12-04-2003, 09:56 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Computer Systems & Peripherals
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) 22.41 -0.04: The Wall Street Journal reported HPQ is planning to introduce an Internet music store and portable music player next year. The Co plans to launch a website that sells song downloads to consumers sometime in the first quarter, most likely through a partnership with an existing online distributor of music.

SanDisk (SNDK) 71.90 -6.31: Co and Toshiba announced that they intend to cooperate in the construction of a new 300-mm wafer fabrication facility at Toshiba's Yokkaichi operations in order to meet growing demand for NAND flash memory. The move is expected to allow mass production in the new facility to be advanced to the second half of Toshiba's FY2005 from the originally planned FY2006.

Networking
There was no news of note in the Networking industry.

Internet
GRIC Comms (GRIC) 6.59 +0.01: Co and SingTel Mobile are teaming up to provide SingTel Mobile's one million customers with Wi-Fi service, powered by GRIC.

SkillSoft (SKIL) 7.99 -0.01: After the close, reported Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.10 per diluted share, excluding multiple ex items related to settlements, restructuring, merger-related R&D costs, and non-cash charges, $0.10 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.00; revenues rose 70.6% year/year to $50.0 mln vs the $47.5 mln consensus. Co also guides, sees Q4 EPS of $0.04-0.05, vs the R.R. consensus of $0.05, and revenues of $51.0-53.0 mln vs an estimate of $53.2 mln; sees Y04 revenues at upper end of $185.0-190.0 mln vs an estimate of $189.5 mln.

Talk America (TALK) 10.75 +0.21: Company reaffirmed Q4 guidance, expects net income to be within guidance of $5-7 mln and sees revenues of $96-104 mln vs the Reuters Research consensus of $103.2 mln.

Semiconductor
Fairchild Semi (FCS) 25.51 -0.59: Co announced that order rates continue to be strong across all end markets and Q4 revenues are now expected to be 8-10% higher sequentially. Fairchild previously guided 6-8% sequential revenue growth. "Bookings continued to be brisk through October and November, which raised our 13-week backlog significantly higher than our third quarter ending position... The increase in backlog is driven both by higher end market demand as well as customers giving us greater visibility into their requirements to ensure component availability. Our turns orders, which book and ship within the same quarter, have also been better than expected. Inventories in the distribution channel appear to have continued to drain, dropping to less than 10 weeks supply on hand as of the end of October, due to the combination of strong resales and longer lead times." Co to report Q4 results on Jan 15.

Intel (INTC) 33.34 -0.51: Removing from Focus List; less likely to beat upwardly revised expectations -- Wedbush (INTC) 34.15 +0.30: Removing from Focus List; less likely to beat upwardly revised expectations -- Wedbush (INTC) 34.15 +0.30. Banc of America Securities raised its Intel (INTC) target price to $39 from $34. The firm also raised Q4 revenue estimate to $8.7B (high end of Q4 revenue guidance of $8.1-8.7B) from $8.4B and its Q4:03 EPS estimate increases to $0.31 from $0.29. BofA's revised estimates reflect new Q4 PC growth assumptions based on its proprietary Taiwan Motherboard and Notebook shipment data. The firm's data indicates Q403 is on track for 14% Q-Q growth. The firm notes the price target fairly reflects the intrinsic value of Intel based upon the current recovery cycle.

NVIDIA (NVDA) 21.22 -0.22: Added to Focus List at Wedbush Morgan; tgt $28.

PMC-Sierra (PMCS) 19.71 -0.67: Commenced tender offer for $150 mln in convertibles.

Semi Equipment
ASML (ASML) 19.78 +0.58: ASML announced it has received the industry's first order for an immersion lithography system from TSMC. Delivery is slated for Q3 2004 with no financial details of the sale being disclosed. The new tool is ASML's TWINSCAN XT:1250i, which is a high productivity, immersion scanner for production applications.

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) 58.26 -0.57: Reuters reported that co's CFO, speaking at a CSFB technology conference in Arizona, said on Wednesday the company now expects order growth of at least 20% from the previous quarter. The company had previously targeted 5 percent growth... see 11:53 update for related commentary.

ON Semiconductor (ONNN) 7.00 -0.05: After the close, co. announced it will be closing manufacturing operations at its facility in East Greenwich, Rhode Island, by the end of 2004 and cut about 330 jobs as part of a cost-cutting effort. Co. would transfer those operations to lower cost manufacturing facilities outside of North America. As a result, the company plans to record restructuring charges of $15- $20 mln in Q4 of Y03.
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Old 12-04-2003, 09:56 AM
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Software
FindWhat.com (FWHT) 17.78 +2.92: Co announced the signing of a private label contract with Verizon Information Services (VIS), the world's largest yellow pages publisher (Verizon SuperPages) and provider of the leading Internet directory service (SuperPages.com) in the U.S. Under the terms of the revenue sharing-based licensing agreement, FindWhat.com will provide the technology and business operations expertise to support enhanced local SuperPages.com advertising services. Financial terms of the contract were not disclosed.

Onyx Software (ONXS) 4.00 +0.17 : Pulls proposal to buy Pivotal.

Oracle (ORCL) 12..90 +0.50: UBS upgraded Neutral to BUY. Target $14.75. Firm also upgraded PSFT from Neutral to Buy, believes that 2004 consensus ests for PSFT are too low (and likely to move towards their above-consensus numbers), they do not believe that the co is still pulling forward rev from the proposed ORCL hostile bid, and they believe there is the potential for ORCL to raise its bid for PSFT if the deal were to be approved by the DOJ. Firm says recent field checks with ORCL suggest the Nov qtr is tracking above expectations, they believe a gradually improving IT spending environment favors the co, and believes that as license revs improve for the co, its bottom line will also see some benefit. Raises PSFT target to $25.50 from $23 and raises ORCL target to $14.75 from $12.50.

Pegasus Solutions (PEGS) 11.95 -0.10: After the close, guides Q4 below consensus. The co announced its Q4 outlook for cash earnings estimated to range from $0.06 to $0.07 per diluted share and revs estimated to range from $42 mln to $43 mln. For 2004, including its Unirez acquisition but excluding IndeCorp Corporation, Pegasus expects full year 2004 revenues to range from $192 million to $200 million. Reuters Research current consensus for Q4 earnings are $0.14 per share and revs of $42.8 mln. For the full year, R.R. consensus revenue estimates are $186.4 mln.

Synopsys (SNPS) 31.25 +0.25: After the close, reported Q4 (Oct) earnings of $0.44 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.41; revenues rose 2.3% year/year to $316.5 mln vs the $316.0 mln consensus. For Q1, company sees EPS of $0.28-0.32 vs consensus of $0.35 on $275-290 mln, consensus $291 mln. For Y04 (Oct), company sees EPS of $1.50-1.60 vs consensus of $1.68 on revenues of $1.2-1.25 bln, consensus is $1.28 bln.

Ulticom (ULCM) 11.15 -0.10: After the close, reported in line Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.03 per diluted share, in line with the Reuters Research consensus of $0.03; revenues rose 24.9% year/year to $9.7 mln vs the $9.6 mln consensus.
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Old 12-04-2003, 09:57 AM
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Telecom Equip
ADC Telecom (ADCT) 2.80 +0.36: Deutsche Bank upgraded ADC Telecom to Buy from Hold based on their belief that the co has more earnings power than investors currently perceive; firm says the key to unlocking earnings power is the potential divestiture of the co's underperforming businesses, which firm believes is likely and which could add as much as $0.08 to the co's future earnings power.

Comverse Tech beats by a penny (CMVT) 18.11 -0.33: After the close, reported Q3 (Oct) loss of $0.01 per share, $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of ($0.02); revenues rose 15.7% year/year to $193.8 mln vs the $192.2 mln consensus.

Motorola (MOT) 13.67 -0.38: Reuters reports that company reaffirmed Q4 guidance, still sees EPS of $0.11-0.15 (before one-time items), vs the Reuters Research consensus of $0.13, and revenues of $7.5-7.8 bln vs an estimate of $7.71 bln. According to company President and COO Mike Zafirovski at the CSFB conference, "based on two months of results, we are comfortable that this is the appropriate guidance for Motorola for the fourth quarter."

UTStarcom (UTSI) 36.65 -1.39: Co announced that it has signed a contract with IDACOMM, an Idaho-based integrated communication provider. IDACOMM will deploy UTStarcom's NetRing TX multi-service provisioning platform to provide solutions for fiber optic broadband services in several cities throughout the western United States. Separately, co announces it has introduced Multiservice Optical Products to optimize service economics in SONET and SDH networks.

Telecom Services
IDT Corp (IDT) 19.10 -0.27: Company has entered into a definitive agreement to purchase the Anchor Bay Entertainment Group, from Handleman Company (HDL). The deal is expected to close in mid-December 2003.
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