ONLINE SPORTSBOOKS

Go Back   MajorWager Forums > MW - Online Sportsbooks > Stock Talk
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Stock Talk Stock tips, opinions and analysis

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-03-2003, 10:05 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 45,795
Default Tech Report Wednesday

Investors retreated to the sidelines Tuesday. Tech shares were, on average, flat even though decliners outnumbered advancers by 1.4:1. Advancers rose 3.1% while decliners dropped a more modest 2.3%.

After the close, Xilinx (XLNX 37.06 -0.39) modestly raised Q3 guidance, Flextronics (FLEX 15.25 -0.42) reaffirmed Q3 guidance, and SEMI released the results of its bi-annual Capital Equipment Consensus Forecast based on interviews conducted between October and November.

Semiconductor equipment manufacturers are forecasting Y/Y revenue growth of 8% for 2003, accelerating to 39% for 2004, moderating to 18% for 2005 and contracting by 6.6% for 2006. Revenue is expected to come in at $21.4B for 2003, $29.6B for 2004, $35B for 2005 and $32.7B for 2006. The industry is expected to contract during 2006 as new capacity installs enter production.

Wafer process equipment is forecast to rise 38.6% to $19.8B in 2004; other front-end equipment by 32.7% to $2.1B; test equipment by 40.4% to $5.5B; assembly and packaging equipment by 40.3% to $2.2B.

Note the valuation for most companies within the semiconductor equipment space already price in growth expectations that exceed the survey results over a longer forecast period. We would focus on:

ASM International (ASMI, 19.48 +0.04): ASMI has one of the broadest product portfolios covering both front- and back-end equipment. One of the more reasonably priced companies on a price multiples basis. Trades at 1.5x Reuters Research consensus C03E revenues of $636MM and 1.2x C04E revenue of $820.3MM; 51.3x C04 EPS of $0.38.

Listed below are a few short-term trading ideas; names that have dropped below their lower volatility band or risen above their upper volatility band. The volatility bands represent the normal low and high trading range for a given company, and serve as general entry/exit points. Shares that trade below or above the bands will generally revert to the mean/normal range. Note that during periods of high volatility, or in the event of material news, a company's share price may move significantly beyond the bands.
__________________
"JJ Call me a 2'x4' again on the forum and your going to pay" Sportman.
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 12-03-2003, 10:05 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 45,795
Default

General Commentary
Investors retreated to the sidelines Tuesday. Tech shares were, on average, flat even though decliners outnumbered advancers by 1.4:1. Advancers rose 3.1% while decliners dropped a more modest 2.3%.

After the close, Xilinx (XLNX 37.06 -0.39) modestly raised Q3 guidance, Flextronics (FLEX 15.25 -0.42) reaffirmed Q3 guidance, and SEMI released the results of its bi-annual Capital Equipment Consensus Forecast based on interviews conducted between October and November.

Semiconductor equipment manufacturers are forecasting Y/Y revenue growth of 8% for 2003, accelerating to 39% for 2004, moderating to 18% for 2005 and contracting by 6.6% for 2006. Revenue is expected to come in at $21.4B for 2003, $29.6B for 2004, $35B for 2005 and $32.7B for 2006. The industry is expected to contract during 2006 as new capacity installs enter production.

Wafer process equipment is forecast to rise 38.6% to $19.8B in 2004; other front-end equipment by 32.7% to $2.1B; test equipment by 40.4% to $5.5B; assembly and packaging equipment by 40.3% to $2.2B.

Note the valuation for most companies within the semiconductor equipment space already price in growth expectations that exceed the survey results over a longer forecast period. We would focus on:

ASM International (ASMI, 19.48 +0.04): ASMI has one of the broadest product portfolios covering both front- and back-end equipment. One of the more reasonably priced companies on a price multiples basis. Trades at 1.5x Reuters Research consensus C03E revenues of $636MM and 1.2x C04E revenue of $820.3MM; 51.3x C04 EPS of $0.38.

Listed below are a few short-term trading ideas; names that have dropped below their lower volatility band or risen above their upper volatility band. The volatility bands represent the normal low and high trading range for a given company, and serve as general entry/exit points. Shares that trade below or above the bands will generally revert to the mean/normal range. Note that during periods of high volatility, or in the event of material news, a company's share price may move significantly beyond the band
__________________
"JJ Call me a 2'x4' again on the forum and your going to pay" Sportman.
Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 12-03-2003, 10:05 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 45,795
Default

Computer Systems & Peripherals
ATI Tech (ATYT) 15.89 +0.43: Co announced that its FireGL T2-128 workstation graphics accelerators have been selected for HP's entry-level CAD and DCC customers.

CE Unterberg (CRAY) 10.10 +0.47: CE Unterberg reiterated their Buy/Buy ratings and $12-$14.40 target range; firm says the recent sell-off has been driven by increased concern over 2004 prospects and a lack of order announcements; however, firm believes that over the past few months the story has strengthened, particularly given the introduction of Red Storm as a commercial product.

Dell (DELL) 34.97 +0.08: The Wall Street Journal reported Dell said its web site for personal-computer sales had more than two million visitors over the four-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend, which is up 20% from a year ago. For the second year in a row, the co also said more than half of its sales that weekend were made online.

IBM (IBM) 90.75 -0.26: Canadian Pacific Railway and IBM Canada Ltd. today announced a 7-year agreement valued at approx US$153 mln under which IBM will operate and enhance the railway's computing infrastructure. The companies said the arrangement is also intended to increase innovation in the railway's computing environment, generating cost savings, higher productivity and enhanced services for rail customers. The contract also enables CPR to benefit from innovative technology and business processes and applications developed at IBM's Center for Transportation Innovation in Boulder, Co.

Ingram Micro (IM) 14.75 +0.05: Before the open, reaffirmed Q4 sales expectations of $5.70-5.90 bln and EPS guidance of $0.21-0.24, ex items, Reuters Research consensus is $5.80 bln and $0.23, respectively.

Network Appliance (NTAP) 22.83 -0.21: As part of the strategic relationship, Network Appliance has signed a reseller agreement with Cisco in which Network Appliance will qualify and tune Network Appliance unified storage systems for maximum performance and functionality with the Cisco MDS 9000 Family of Multilayer Intelligent directors and fabric storage area networking (SAN) switches.

Networking
3Com (COMS) 8.07 +0.37: Reuters reported that 3Com has signed a deal with No. 2 computer services company Electronic Data Systems (EDS) under which EDS will place 3Com gear with its major customers. EDS will install 3Com switches, routers and voice-over-IP switches. Co says "It's a huge deal for us," adding the pact will help 3Com expand its efforts to more aggressively battle Cisco.

Cisco (CSCO) 23.11 -0.07: AT&T and Cisco Systems have announced a significant expansion of their current United States market alliance to include Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). This announcement represents CSCO's first expansion of a U.S. domestic service provider market alliance internationally. AT&T and Cisco will work together through their EMEA direct sales force to develop joint marketing programs that support the delivery of end-to-end managed services to enterprise and multinational companies. These services will include the AT&T Internet Protocol Virtual Private Network (IP VPN) suite of services, AT&T Global Managed Internet Services, Managed Security Services and Hosting services.

Crossroads (CRDS) 2.65 -0.35: After the close, reported Q4 (Oct) loss of $(0.01) per share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $(0.05); Note, the $(0.01) loss includes a pre-tax negligible business restructuring benefit. We would need tax rate to know exact per share impact. Either way, the co beat consensus handily. Revenues rose 12.7% year/year to $9.3 mln vs the $7.3 mln consensus... Co also announces a cross-licensing arrangement covering access control technology with Hitachi
__________________
"JJ Call me a 2'x4' again on the forum and your going to pay" Sportman.
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 12-03-2003, 10:05 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 45,795
Default

Internet
Ask Jeeves (ASKJ) 20.05 +0.96: Soundview raised their Q4 rev/EPS ests to $32.1 mln/$0.12 from $30.8 mln/$0.11, ahead of consensus of $30.6 mln/$0.11, saying strong demand for e-commerce, healthcare, and financial keywords, as well as a seasonal uptick in search query volume are driving rev growth for ASKJ. Maintains Outperform rating and $25 target.

Overstock.com (OSTK) 20.20 +3.93: Co. announced record business-to-consumer gross merchandise sales (non-GAAP) of $6.4 mln over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. These sales reflect a 156% increase in sales over the same three-day period ('Black Friday' through Sunday) last year. The company reported gross merchandise sales of $2.5 mln during the '02 Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a 150% increase over the '01 holiday weekend.

Semiconductor
RF Micro Device (RFMD) 11.47 -0.40: Co announced production shipments of the RF3133 PowerStarTM power amplifier module to LG Electronics for use in the LG G4010 and LG G4050, which are LG's first GSM/GPRS handsets targeted at the US market.

Xilinx (XLNX) 37.06 -0.39: After the close, guided DecQ revs above consensus. Co sees Q3 (Dec) sales up 6% to 9% sequentially which computes to $334-$344 mln vs Reuters Research consensus of $329 mln.

Semi Equipment
ASML Holding (ASML) 19.20 +0.15: Co announced that, based on its backlog of customer orders as of Dec 1 and its anticipated system shipments through year end, ASML expects its order backlog at Dec 31 will be greater than its previously disclosed order backlog of 91 systems as of Sept 28, 2003. ASML indicated today's announcement was to update cautionary statements, made in its Q3 2003 results conference call, that the company's backlog potentially could decline in the fourth quarter. "The volatility of customer demand continues. In the past two weeks, the intake process has shown considerable strength and we will continue to pursue further orders through year end."

Software
Autodesk (ADSK) 23.75 +0.45: Barron's Online highlighted ADSK and suggested the stock may have even more "room to run" due to its upcoming new product cycle, stronger demand, cost cutting and increasing subscription revenue. Eric Wanger, an analyst at Barrington Research Associates, states "[Autodesk] is finally getting religion on its operations -- [it's] firing on all cylinders." Despite the stock being near its 52-week high, it is still about 17% off its all-time high of 28.03 in 2000. The co's balance sheet is strong, with more than $450 million in cash and little debt.

MERANT plc (MRNT) 11.51 +0.95: Co. announced that the U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border Protection, Dept. of Homeland Security, has implemented Merant Dimensions. Merant Dimensions will play a role in the development and management of numerous applications within Customs and Border Protection (CBP), including those in the areas of law enforcement, finance and administration.

Network Associates (NET) 14.40 +0.94: SG Cowen out with call this morning suggesting new guidance reflects accounting change and not upside. Firm notes 2004 EPS guidance of $0.67-$0.72 vs. its $0.66 estimate is solely from accounting change enacted in Q3. SG Cowen notes capitalizing sales expenses inflates reported earnings per share. The firm is "uneasy" with this move as it masks true earnings power and offers no real upside.

Oracle (ORCL) 12.40 -0.11: Pacific Growth Equities upgraded Equal Weight to OVER WEIGHT. Believes co's fundamental outlook has improved and its core business has stabilized due to a stronger demand environment.
__________________
"JJ Call me a 2'x4' again on the forum and your going to pay" Sportman.
Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)  
Old 12-03-2003, 10:06 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 45,795
Default

Telecom Equip
ADC Telecom (ADCT) 2.44 -0.06: After the close, guided revs slightly below consensus. Reported Q4 (Oct) pro forma earnings of $0.02 per diluted share, $0.02 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.00; revenues fell 12.6% year/year to $192.9 mln vs the $186.3 mln consensus. Co also guided for Q1:04, sees loss of $0.01 to breakeven, vs the R.R. consensus of $0.00, and revenues of $170-180 mln vs an estimate of $182.7 mln.

Finisar (FNSR) 3.92 -0.07: After the close, reported Q2 (Oct) loss of $(0.06) per share, ex-items, in line with the Reuters Research consensus of ($0.06); revenues rose 4.6% year/year to $42.8 mln vs the $40.1 mln consensus.

Telecom Services
Qwest (Q) 3.58 -0.06: Co. announced a new 5-year, multimillion dollar contract to provide the state of Nebraska with a multi-purpose data network. The contract includes services previously provided by Q to the state, as well as additional network capacity to support Nebraska's expansion of its statewide multi-purpose telecommunications backbone. Full monetary details of the contract were not disclosed.

Spectrasite (SSI) 34.45 +0.05: Raymond James upgraded Outperform to STRONG BUY. Target $41.5 to $43. Cited valuation as the stock has declined about 11% since their Nov 6 downgrade
__________________
"JJ Call me a 2'x4' again on the forum and your going to pay" Sportman.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:48 AM.

Please be advised that if you are wagering over the internet, this is illegal in many jurisdictions. A wagering site may be operating legally at their location but it may still be illegal for you to wager from your location. We suggest you check on the legal situation from any jurisdiction in which you may wager.
 

Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.0.0 RC6