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Old 12-02-2003, 10:00 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Default Tech Reports Tuesday

Tech shares moved 1.1% higher on Monday. Advancers led decliners by a 2:1 margin, with gainers rising 3.2% and losers falling 2.6%. Investors were cheered by a) news that October Semiconductor sales rose 6.8% Q/Q, b) a good Black Friday/start to the holiday shopping season, and c) a stronger than expected November ISM Index of 62.8 (vs. consensus of 57.0), which suggested manufacturing employment will start to rise. Continuing strength within the building market also provided investors with some level of confidence. Construction Spending came in at 0.9% vs. consensus at 0.5%.

Investors are shifting focus from last quarter's earnings to the current quarter and the next 12 months. Looking ahead, there is reason to be optimistic as detailed in the Big Picture. Even in tech, where valuations appear stretched, attractive names can be found. One methodology for finding attractive investment ideas is to identify the company or companies that are particularly well positioned to capitalize on secular trends that form and define large market opportunities. For example, as profiled on Monday's Story Stock page, Sandisk (SNDK 79.06 -1.76) is particularly well positioned to benefit from the trend to digitize and make mobile every day processes from computing to picture taking to video viewing.

For short-term trading ideas, we will continue to identify names that have dropped below their lower volatility band or risen above their upper volatility band (listed below). The volatility bands represent the "normal" low and high trading range for a given company, and serve as generally entry/exit points. Shares that trade below or above the bands will generally revert to the mean/"normal" range. Note that during periods of high volatility, or in the event of material news, a company's share price may move significantly beyond the bands
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Old 12-02-2003, 10:01 AM
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Computer Systems & Peripherals
icad (ICAD) 5.99 +0.29: iCAD Inc, CADx Systems, Inc. and CADx' parent company, Qualia Computing, Inc., today announced that they have entered into definitive and binding agreements under which iCAD will merge with privately held CADx and Qualia. To complete the merger, iCAD will issue 4.3 million shares of its common stock in exchange for all outstanding shares of Qualia Computing Inc. and CADx Systems.

SanDisk (SNDK) 79.06 -1.76: WR Hambrecht raised estimates on SanDisk and reiterated its Buy rating due to strong demand and new product shipments. Firm says the benign pricing environment in Q3 appears to be continuing in Q4. The firm expects sales of USB flash drives to be exceptionally strong this holiday season.

Silicon Graphics (SGI) 1.18 +0.05: Company announced that LMT awarded SGI a $1.6 mln contract in Q1 FY03 to develop and build a prototype Night VisionGoggles (NVG) simulation system and awards co a $3.6 mln contract in Q2 FY03 for subsequent installation of NVG simulation on 10 currently fielded and four additional pilot training systems, which will be part of the Air Force F-16 program.

Networking
There was no news of note in the Networking industry.

Internet
DigitalThink (DTHK) 3.06 +0.08: Upped to Buy from Mkt Perform at Adams Harkness. The upgrade of DigitalThink is based on potential orders growth on the back of a rebuilt sales organization. Further, with last Wednesday's announced $1.5 mln settlement with IP Learn, a significant, non-fundamental distraction is removed, plus the co can avoid $200K-300K in quarterly legal defense costs previously incurred in connection with this litigation. Price tgt goes to $4 from $3.

GigaMedia (GIGM) 2.12 -0.04: Company appointed Arthur Wang, 42, as its new chief executive officer and as a director of GIGM. Co also announces the addition of two new directors to its board. All changes are effective immediately.

iVillage (IVIL) 2.60 +0.10: After the close, co reconfirmed its previously issued business outlook for the Q403. Co. expects that revenue will increase sequentially in the double-digit range for the quarter ending December 31, 2003. The Company also anticipates a continued decrease in net loss for the same period. Co cites that, " strong momentum in Internet advertising allows us to reaffirm our positive financial outlook for the fourth quarter 2003.". iVillage is slated to issue its fourth quarter and year-end 2003 financial results in early February 2004.

Neoforma.com (NEOF) 15.57 -0.41: Company terminated proposed acquisition of I-many's (IMNY) Health & Life Sciences business, to concentrate on driving value to healthcare supply chain.

SkillSoft (SKIL) 7.75 +0.02: After the close, co. said it has agreed to settle for $32 mln the class action lawsuit filed in 1998 against it. Co. said the lawsuit, filed against the co, one of its subsidiaries and certain former and current officers and directors, asserted violations of U.S. securities laws. SKIL said the settlement calls for it to make a $10 mln cash payment within 30 days and an additional $6 mln payment in mid-2004. Its insurance carriers will pay $16 mln-- Reuters

Symantec (SYMC) 33.81 +0.98: Raymond James upgraded Symantec to Strong Buy from Outperform and raised their target to $39.50 from $37.50; firm feels increasingly confident about SYMC's competitive positioning and ability to deliver on expectations due to: 1) strong traction with recently introduced enterprise security products as well as provisioning and patch mgmt, 2) recent acquisitions of enterprise administration businesses that significantly enhance its ability to capitalize on emerging growth in the market for systems/device configuration, and 3) moves by Microsoft that likely indicate cooperation rather than competition with existing security vendors.

United Online (UNTD) 19.08 +0.95: First Albany upgraded Buy to STRONG BUY. Target $25. Cites valuation as well as their belief that the co has the finest-tuned business model to profit from the value ISP segment.

Watchguard (WGRD) 6.03 -0.18: Rise in inventories may taint good qtr - Kaufman (WGRD) 6.17 -0.04: Kaufman says that rumors of a new product release have surfaced in their most recent channel checks, and they believe a product release is imminent; firm believes that any rise in channel inventories may taint a good qtr, and that the co has potentially set itself up to be questioned by its recognition policy of sell-in to the channel; given the co's admission that channel inventories were reduced due to the ability to meet demand more timely, any increase in these inventories may lead to questions about channel fill, even if the co produces a strong qtr. Maintains Hold rating and $6.50 target.

Yahoo! (YHOO) 44.21 +1.22: Deutsche Securities reiterated their Buy rating on Yahoo! and raised their target to $48 from $44, as business momentum at the co appears to be accelerating; firm says checks indicate that the online ad mkt is poised to grow by up to 30% over the next 2-4 quarters, and the co appears well-positioned to benefit from rapidly growing momentum in the core branded advertising biz as well as incremental opportunities on the paid search biz (especially via the MSN deal and internationally).

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Old 12-02-2003, 10:01 AM
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Semiconductor
Broadcom (BRCM) 37.14 +0.75: Smith Barney Citigroup upgraded Sell to HOLD. Target $28 to $40. Firm still expects that sequential sales momentum could slow sometime in 2004.

Fairchild Semi (FCS) 26.78 +0.78: Deutsche Securities upgraded Fairchild Semi to Buy from Hold and raised their 2004-05 ests above consensus based on their belief that the co's Q1 is shaping up to be stronger than seasonally normal and that FCS's cost reduction efforts should yield greater EPS contribution than reflected by consensus. Target is $30.

ParthusCeva (PCVA) 9.05 +0.30: Upped to Buy from Hold at Ferris Baker Watts; tgt $11

Tripath Tech (TRPH) 5.68 +1.01: Selected by Hitachi for plasma TVs. Co announced that its TA2021B digital audio amplifier will power Hitachi's new line of Plasma TVs.

TriQuint Semi (TQNT) 8.15 +0.01: Co and Lockheed Martin announced advanced Gallium Nitride process. Companies announced breakthrough results for power density, power added efficiency and radio frequency lifetime for gallium nitride High Electron Mobility Transistor devices. Achieving breakthrough performance and improved reliability is an important step in significant size and weight reductions for radar-based defense applications.

Semi Equipment
There was no news of note in the Semi Equipment industry.

Software
Business Objects (BOBJ) 33.88 -0.22: UBS downgraded Business Objects to Neutral from Buy. Although UBS expects a good Q4 and likes the C.D. acquisition long-term, firm expects the focus on near-term risks to hold the stock back (e.g., product and personnel integration, more intense competition in the enterprise reporting market). UBS remains optimistic that co will either meet or even exceed firm's Q4 expectations.

Cadence Design (CDN) 17.41 +0.68: Soundview upgraded Cadence Design to Outperform from Neutral, raised their 2004-05 ests above consensus, and raises their target to $20 from $14, saying they have increased confidence in the co's ability to outgrow the industry given their increased confidence in CDN's success in renewing large licenses that are up for renewal by early 2004, its expected success in increasing its penetration into the verification mkt, and the co's improved cost structure.

Red Hat (RHAT) 13.27 -0.05: Co announced that Tim Buckley, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer with responsibility for North American sales and global channel sales, will retire after five years with Red Hat.
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Old 12-02-2003, 10:01 AM
jjgold jjgold is offline
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Telecom Equip
8x8 (EGHT) 5.97 -1.55: Profiled negatively in NY Post. NY Post article takes a shot at highflier 8x8, which is up 4300% this year. Article says "voice over broadband" isn't a business any more than "faxing" is a business. It's just an activity that can take place over an existing communications network. In fact, if any money at all can be made, the cable cos that already operate the networks are in the best position to try; they at least already know who their customers actually are, and how to reach them most effectively and inexpensively. If residential subscribers begin migrating to cable-based telephone services, the phone cos will simply keep cutting prices. In a race to the bottom, 8x8 cannot win.

Audiocodes (AUDC) 10.50 -1.15: Company announced Mr. Nachum Falek will replace Mr Mike Liloas, who resigned to pursue new challenges, as AUDC's new VP Finance and Chief Financial Officer.

Guides below Q4 consensus (MCDTA) 10.60 -0.05: After the close, reported Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.02 per share, ex items, $0.03 better than the Reuters Research consensus of ($0.01); revenues rose 17.1% year/year to $94.7 mln vs the $94.5 mln consensus. Company sees Q4 EPS of breakeven to $0.01 profit vs consensus of $0.04 profit, on revenues of $108-116 mln vs consensus of $117 mln.

Tellabs (TLAB) 7.69 -0.32: UBS downgraded Tellabs to Reduce from Neutral based on valuation; in addition, firm remains unconvinced that the co can deliver sales growth much above the 5-10% annual range over the next two years (judged by mixed results of new product sales to date) and also believes that the co's entry into data networking will face significant competition. Raised target to $7.50 from $7.25.

Telecom Services
SBA Comm (SBAC) 3.46 +0.01: Proposes $200 mln debt offering. SBA intends to use a portion of the proceeds from this offering to fund the repurchase of up to $153.3 million aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 12% Senior Discount Notes due 2008.
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