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Longer/shorter prices and soccer
Prompted by someone on another forum
Went back and had a look at some ratings returns from last year, from the scandinavian/usa/asian seasons through to November in less Northern Europe, Australia, etc.
The odds ranges are grouped into large increments for convenience, first, number of games in that sample, percentage, and return.
Have lumped home and away together as well.
Another interesting point I looked at prices over 7.00, only 10 winners out of 100 in that lot, although as has been said, losing streaks there will not be uncommon.
Also highlights a couple of interesting things I was probably doing ‘wrong’ I think - from memory being more ‘comfortable’ at the around 2.00 range for home teams/away teams I might have been including those in the sample with less edge - and maybe they are easier to price, but the returns in the 1.6-2 range seem to indicate that a little. Will be sticking a bit harder to the 110% now I think, having thought about that and had discussion. However, opposite perhaps true for the longshot away teams, or longer shot, was looking for a ‘bigger’ overlay there to allow for error to bet those, so will see what happens if do look at around 110% for them starting agan from this season - which I just caught up to date with a few days ago. The same with bigger priced home underdogs - which are likewise rare in the ‘sample’ but sometimes you will get 8.00 prices - like Yozgatspor I think it was not so long at home to Galatasary (who were in a big of a pay dispute, so that one was interesting, and a ‘ratings value’ selection.
This is also only from bookmakers was looking at at the time,so better prices would have been obtainable on some things, but that is always the case, didn’t bet them all either, as was still working through back ratings and adding leagues, etc., as I had the time - a process that is a little more automated now.
[This message has been edited by AussieVamp2 (edited 05-22-2001).]