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Old 05-11-2001, 12:14 AM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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Default AUSTRIAN GAMES

Do any of you follow these leagues? I'm a value bettor and have consistently lost here, and am getting very confused as to why. I have good success elsewhere and employ the same concepts to these games, but for the second consecutive year, Austria will show my poorest results. I'm on the dog and/or draw 90% of the time. Just a casual observation, seems these are high scoring games, resulting in fewer ties. I have no empiracle evidence to support this, but if true, would'nt this in essence be irrelevant to a value bettor anyway?

Thank you in advance.
TA

And yes, I know the obvious solution is to avoid the league, but I figured this was an anomaly and some league would be last on my profits list anyway.
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Old 05-11-2001, 04:28 AM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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Bundesliga is very good. Would think betting on draws not a good idea.

The 1st division is very crappy, as far as I can see, and it seems sometimes teams just have no chance.

While not the case a few years ago, it seems the draw percentage is very low there the last few years, 24%, around 20 this year, so betting on draws looks like a very bad idea.

Especially as 3.25 and 3.20 type draw prices are still being posted. Would be very hard to make money on those given those factors, currently.

The value lies in the home teams at the moment, as far as I can see.

Home teams have held the value there for the last couple of years.
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Old 05-11-2001, 04:31 AM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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draw percentage is certainly relevant to someone betting on draws...

see very little 'value' personally in betting on draws in most leagues, some situations notwithstanding

although of course others will have different approaches that work

less variable price always around the same range and doesnt' really increase commensurately when you have big favorites
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Old 05-11-2001, 04:44 AM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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so if your bog standard game

is around 52-24-24 currently

You have a price of 1.92 4.17 3.85

If your draw price is 3.25 you have a huge handicap to overcome already - you are trying to overcome 6-7% to make money. To predict draws at that much higher a rate would seem impossible to me. Throwing away money.

STURM GRAZ v GRAZER AK 14 May 00:00 CST
00:30
Betting on result after 90 minutes of play.

STURM GRAZ 1.80
DRAW 3.25
GRAZER AK 3.85


For example, from Centrebet. Not such a great example as on a Sturm game you can shop around and find heavier favorite odds probably and hence a better draw price, but will still only be 3.40 I would think.

Or in other words, if the league 'fundamentals' are currently correct, the pricing is 'wrong'.

Maybe I should no write this where it can be seen

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Old 05-11-2001, 04:55 AM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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Thank you AV,

Division 1, has been the worst, and the obvious conclusion is the value has been against me . Am still not sure of the relevance of the outcome percentages, as my wagering is 95% based on market prices, 5% on intangibles, which should include most relevant statistical data anyway. Lastly, as far as naked draw positions, I've profitted, I avoid most draws, except in close matches i.e +150 +220 +150, and play only off definitive positive expectations.

In cases of heavy favorites, I'm either on draw and dog or nothing.

Its kind of bizarre mostly rooting for ties, but I'm adaptable as long as I win.
TA

[This message has been edited by The Actuary (edited 05-11-2001).]
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Old 05-11-2001, 05:24 AM
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BTW, I've only been on the soccer scene coming up on two years, so I have much to learn and appreciate all the insight provide here, perhaps my success has been an aberration, but I only bet when my price exceeds the average price by more than the average takeout.
TA
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Old 05-11-2001, 11:24 AM
pokerjoe pokerjoe is offline
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I'd rather conclude that poor results on any one league are merely an expected extreme point on the distribution curve. Of course it always takes a lot to get me to accept an aberation as generic.

If you've been doing this two years, you've got a range of results (by leagues) with your method, and it's natural that, of the leagues with your poorest results in the first year, one of them would also randomly end up with poor results again the second year. Any given leagues results are too small a sample to warrant much respect.

(look at me, Ma: lecturing an Actuary on stats )

Now if it fails you NEXT year....

I do something similar to you, Actuary, in that I let the market make my initial estimates.

As best I can, I've been cutting down the list of books that go into my "market definer" list to include only those who really take singles (some books "fake" take singles, like SSP with it's 5 offers a week), those with lower holds (presumably sharper lines, more "betting sensitive"), and those with more betting volume. Don't want to weight WillHill equally with Luvbet.

Then you have the question of individual books being sharper on individual leagues. Veikkaus with Finland, for example. Maybe Yabet with Norway, Pinnacle with La Liga. Hang Cheng with EPL, after converting to three-way prices. Of course it would take a long time to build up samples large enough to validate such any book's alleged superiority.

Related is the question whether some book's extreme (allegedly value) positions might merely be a trap. Some books (unibet, yabet, Vip) frequently take positions, but of those that don't, when they do, I have to wonder why, and wonder further if after 10-20 such bets with such a book, if they net a loss, should maybe me avoided.

Anyway, this concept of betting the value side of a game can be applied to US sports, but I don't think often is. Scalpers, like Reno for example, might find themselves better off betting into the extreme position half of the scalp only. Same with middles, too. If the world's got A -6 and you find B +8, rather than knee-jerk go for the middle on that game, I think you'd be better off just taking B, saving the juice from the normal counterweight bet on A. Same thing with the soccer "sure bets." Rather just bet the extreme positions and leave out the push parts.


There's as much stuff to research in sports betting as you want to find, isn't there? I played tennis in college, and taught many summers. Yet I've never bet it, simply because my plate is full enough. I keep thinking, next year I'll look into it.

[This message has been edited by pokerjoe (edited 05-11-2001).]
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Old 05-11-2001, 11:37 AM
pokerjoe pokerjoe is offline
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Anyway, yes I think it is all irrelevant to a value bettor anyway.

But also consider, on the more obsure leagues, with a small market, fewer books posting lines, that maybe your market definition is too vague. I have my list of market defining books, and if I can't get quotes from at least 8 of them, I consider a market undefined. That's probably too conservative of me, but that's my nature.

But I think AUT1 should be pretty well defined, so, don't know. Again, I vote that it's just an abberation until a powerful argument can be made otherwise, and the only one I can think of is that maybe, if you break down your losses, you might find one or two book's positions accounting for most of those losses, and then you might guess that those books are just sharp on that league, and avoid their positions when they take them.

Especially if they're Austrian books.
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Old 05-11-2001, 11:38 AM
pokerjoe pokerjoe is offline
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In fact, if you found such a thing, you might even counter bet them!
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Old 05-11-2001, 12:19 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by The Actuary:
Thank you AV,

Division 1, has been the worst, and the obvious conclusion is the value has been against me . Am still not sure of the relevance of the outcome percentages, as my wagering is 95% based on market prices, 5% on intangibles, which should include most relevant statistical data anyway.

-- well - if one league has a 28% draw rate and is price at 3.25, and one has a 24% and is priced at 3.25, bit easier to make money off the former?


Lastly, as far as naked draw positions, I've profitted, I avoid most draws, except in close matches i.e +150 +220 +150, and play only off definitive positive expectations.

-- Well if you can do that, I am quite impressed. There are a few ricks I am aware of due to what I have done, and a few other things, but some of them need a 110% market or better to work, as well. So if you have a generic solution for draw wagering, then cool.


In cases of heavy favorites, I'm either on draw and dog or nothing.

Its kind of bizarre mostly rooting for ties, but I'm adaptable as long as I win.
TA


-- sure.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

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Old 05-11-2001, 12:20 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by The Actuary:
BTW, I've only been on the soccer scene coming up on two years, so I have much to learn and appreciate all the insight provide here, perhaps my success has been an aberration, but I only bet when my price exceeds the average price by more than the average takeout.
TA<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Interesting theory - and you throw that through a few more filters I presume?
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Old 05-11-2001, 12:24 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by pokerjoe:
[b]Anyway, yes I think it is all irrelevant to a value bettor anyway.

But also consider, on the more obsure leagues, with a small market, fewer books posting lines, that maybe your market definition is too vague. I have my list of market defining books, and if I can't get quotes from at least 8 of them, I consider a market undefined. That's probably too conservative of me, but that's my nature.

-- Well, not many places will give you single bets on the Austrian 1st division. Bundesliga, yeah.


But I think AUT1 should be pretty well defined, so, don't know. Again, I vote that it's just an abberation until a powerful argument can be made otherwise, and the only one I can think of is that maybe, if you break down your losses,


-- One other Austrian 1st division note - got a few several financial difficulties in that league, last couple of years have had teams fold/forfeit and just not be able to pay players, as far as I can remember, so that can throw things out as well. This one has seemed a bit freaky to me for a while - over more than a couple of years, so it could be characteristic of the situation - even to some decent Austrian punters it seems.

you might find one or two book's positions accounting for most of those losses, and then you might guess that those books are just sharp on that league, and avoid their positions when they take them.

Especially if they're Austrian books.

-- that is not a bad idea. Might have to implement that in the 01+ season spreadsheet.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

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Old 05-11-2001, 12:25 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by pokerjoe:
In fact, if you found such a thing, you might even counter bet them!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Lot of work that unfortunately

and you have no idea if 'oddsmaker x' comes, goes, stays or otherwise, I guess, or even who they are?

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Old 05-11-2001, 12:29 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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On the market thing, Actuary

Austrian 1st division draw betting?

Going to be hard to do that, isn't it, if you have not so many places to bet

and not much variety in draw price, and if average market percentage is 114 or whatever, bit hard to get a 14% improvement on your 'drawish' game?

Or do you mean 'takeout' as only in the draw part of it, roughly a third, or whatever?
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Old 05-11-2001, 12:39 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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More on the evils of the Austrian 1st division

Last season (well, this season)

A note - I stopped betting one every soccer league under the sun last season as I got sidetracked into working out how to win money on college football and basketball, so this was only up into november :-

but that sample

4 Austrian 1st division bets on home teams

4 losers

8 away team bets on moderate underdogs to favorites, 4 wins, breakevenish

seem to remember a similar thing happening the year before

but, more experience needed, and freaky stuff can happen - cf sweden and the incredibly low home win winning percentage for a lot of last year - so if betting based on past history/numbers etc., that gets pretty screwed up.
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Old 05-11-2001, 12:47 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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Now, same thing, with the Bundesliga

up till end November - when I got sidetracked - lot of work to keep up with everything and try something else as PJ says, but hopefully worth it.

none in my big home dog category
3-1 in the reasonable home dog category (a rating classification, not a price one) although some relation of course, for +5ish

21-11 in the standard home fave type range - being the home dominant Austria some 1.50 type prices in there so +4ish

0-2 in the big road dog category

9-5 in the away five type category +8ish

so more sportsbooks, more shopping, more sensible league?

So strange, but not going to win on every one every year I think, at least I wouldn't doing this, if Actuaries can, then good for them.

No Austrian draw scenarios I found worthwhile.
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Old 05-11-2001, 12:53 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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another question is, how do you tell which is the sharp one, if say, 4 places had the same price - which is eminently possible on Croatia, or something, or even the Premier League - and you just choose one at random for ease of use, or preference, or you have money there? Another problem in that sort of analysis, other than small samples.
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Old 05-11-2001, 01:01 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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Actually, just dug up my old 99-00 stuff, looking at Austrian 1st was actually quite good for home teams, which may have been before a few teams had issues

however, I was pretty much looking at home teams only then, and both Austrias were ok - Bundesliga home win percentage again, was high, of course, so it should be in general, looking at a cople of things sensibly in that season
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Old 05-11-2001, 01:05 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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the German Bundesliga is actually the one that annoys me horrible on away stuff this year up until that point then again, very low away win percentage

Home Goals Average 1.77
Away Goals Average 1.15
Total Goals Average 2.92
Home Win % 52.3
Draw % 22.6
Away Win % 25.1
Over 2.5 goals % 56.8
Under 2.5 goals % 43.2
Over 3.5 goals % 36.2
Under 3.5 goals % 63.8
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