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Old 03-28-2006, 07:28 AM
Shawn Shawn is offline
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 1,782
Default How much are those doggies at the window?

Backed both Juve and Milan +1/4, both slightly better than 1.80. Reckoning the quarter-ball is big here with lowish totals in a competition which, in recent years, gets more nervous the later it goes. Though both Arsenal and Lyon have had great domestic form the last five years, neither has shown the pedigree to go farther than here in the Champions' League. We can't see this year being all that different.

The Old Lady was very lucky to get past Bremen over two legs, and lost away to Bayern Munchen in the group stage, but have only lost once away in fifteen matches in Italy this season. In total Juve have lost four matches in all competitions this year. Arsenal two wins and two draws in this competition at home so far, although they were lucky to beat Thun and disinterested against Ajax. Domestically Arsenal 11-2-2 at Highbury.

Milan have five losses in sixteen games away this year domestically, and lost away to PSV here. That's a bit troubling, but aside from getting beat away to Roma when Roma were beating everybody, all the losses, including an "away" game with Inter, were before Christmas. Since dumping the Copa quarterfinal to Palermo, Milan are unbeaten in eleven games in all competitions. Lyon have been unbeatable at home in the Champions' League so far, but domestically are a better side away than at their own ground (home 10 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses, 26-16; away 10 wins, 5 draws whilst scoring 30 times and shipping only 7 goals). Given the tragic collapse at the cathedral of European football this season, AC Milan will rate to be, far and away, the toughest test Lyon has seen all year.

Neither home side is a pushover, but we make both these games a toss-up. Low totals imply a greater draw frequency, so +1/4 on any side at 1.8 or better is worth a punt. As it happens, it's the travelling Italians in both situation getting the quarter-bvall head start at the attractive price.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2006, 05:14 PM
DrunkenGoon DrunkenGoon is offline
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Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 9,844
Default How much are those doggies at the window?

Agreed on Juve, but I'd rather have Lyon DNB thank Milan +0.25 in that game...
"Elections are not decided by those who vote but by those who count the votes"
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Old 03-29-2006, 07:47 AM
Shawn Shawn is offline
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 1,782
Default How much are those doggies at the window?

Wow Juventus stunk.

1.80 to 1.825 generally on Lyon at the moment. Can't see it going higher for you. If you prefer Lyon, I think now's the time.
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