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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-28-2005, 09:58 AM
utsbet utsbet is offline
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Default Australian Open

Anyone have any early leans or players they believe are value? I've had a quick scout and came up with the following:

Andy Roddick @ 30-1
Always going to be there or thereabouts. No reason he can't make the semis or final. These sort of odds mean he's around 1.63 per match, which is quite high for a player of his quality who would only start as a dog against 2 or 3 players in the draw. Also looks promising given Safin (knee) and Nadal (foot) are in doubt and Hewitt's mind won't be totally on tennis after the birth of his child.

Thomas Johansson @ 220-1
Winner here in the past and very underrated. The concern would be his age, but he's consistent and no stranger to the latter stages of big tournaments. His namesake Joachim @ 250-1 also seems valuesome, but hasn't played a whole lot of tennis in recent times.

Berdych @ 60-1 and Murray @ 110-1 are gross unders that I wouldn't recommend.

As for the women, it's hard to get an accurate gauge of prices this early, but Sharapova @ 9-1 is encouraging although there is some doubt over her shoulder. Clijsters looks a touch short at 5/2 with a strong contigent and depth of good players.
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Old 12-28-2005, 04:45 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

I heard that Marat Safin is out. Is that a definite 'no' for the Russian giant or just a smoke-screen?
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Old 12-29-2005, 07:38 PM
Ahead Ahead is offline
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Default RE:Australian Open

Roddick is value to that prize.
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Old 12-30-2005, 07:07 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

What about the other Johansson, guy can even be a danger when injured...
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Old 12-30-2005, 11:13 AM
utsbet utsbet is offline
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Default RE:Australian Open

Yeah I mentioned Joachim under Thomas' comment.
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Old 12-30-2005, 11:44 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

Ok, that guy seems massive value at 250-1.

Will take a massive effort to oust Federer though. But at 1.70 this bet is a no-play.

I like Hewitt at 17.00 and possibly even Nadal, would played very well against Federer in April in Florida I beliee on hardcourts. Any idea how Nadal plays on a rebound ace surface?
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Old 12-30-2005, 12:12 PM
utsbet utsbet is offline
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Default RE:Australian Open

Nadal will have no trouble on the rebound ace, but the concern is still his injury which has forced him out of Chennai. The same injury meant he was a no show at the Masters Cup. His replacement in Chennai is Ljubicic, who could be a darkhorse in Melbourne @ 40-1.

The more I look at Hewitt the more I think he is of some value @ 21-1. But like you said, it will take an extreme effort to beat Roger, and Hewitt is one guy who will never beat him again.
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Old 12-30-2005, 01:08 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

That's true, I can't see Hewitt beating Federer. He would have to play as well as he did against Safin in the first set last year to stand a chance.

Same with Andre. He loves the surface and can knock off almost everyone. And by almost I mean the Swiss man himself.

If Nadal is fit I'd go with him for a few $$$. Guy can play and isn't your typical Spanish clay-court, "mom, I have nightmares about Wimbledon because I can't hit a ball," straight-out loser on such surfaces. The boy can play.
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Old 12-30-2005, 01:53 PM
nehpets nehpets is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

ljubicic - based on the 2nd half of this year, ljubicic can go toe to toe with anyone
nalbandian - won the masters cup, beat federer, and the above
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Old 12-30-2005, 09:03 PM
rocketman rocketman is offline
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Default RE:Australian Open

Hewitt looked fat to me on the tv last night - too many Xmas puds, late nights with bub, and shagging Bec
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2006, 07:15 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

Any Aussie Open updates? How are Hewitt and Nadal looking? Is one still fat and the other injured or are they both ready to rock and roll?
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Old 01-04-2006, 07:10 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

Utsbet, where did you get that price on JJ?
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 01-04-2006, 11:30 AM
Ahead Ahead is offline
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Default RE:Australian Open

Forget about Joakim Pim Pim Johansson.
When playing to his best,he is still way too limited.
The guy has a BIG serve...but no volley to combine it with.No footwork whatsoever-and without that ingredience you just ainīt gonna win a slam tourney.
Thomas Johansson is slightly over the hill by now.Iīm surprised he manged to produce ONE slam victory-but he ainīt the player he was back then.
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 01-04-2006, 12:37 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

Thanks for the info, mate. So who are we taking then? Is Hewitt ready and roaring to go or has he been feasting on Big Macs for the last few weeks? What about Naldy? Guy looks like money to me...

I guess it all depends on the draw though. You really want to be as far away from Federer as possible...
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 01-05-2006, 01:01 AM
utsbet utsbet is offline
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Default RE:Australian Open

That price on JJ was at Betfair, but now I see I've been embarrassed and he's out to 310-1!

I disagree that he's just a big serve. He has massive groundstrokes and is good enough, though not brilliant, at the net. He also made the semis of the US Open in 2004. Problem is that he hasn't played for 5 months after undergoing shoulder surgery.
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Old 01-05-2006, 03:29 AM
nehpets nehpets is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

I wouldnt back JJ until i'd seen him win a couple of matches...
I'd take over half the players in the draw against him should they draw him rd 1, even the poo!

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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 01-05-2006, 09:42 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

11 days to go, fellas! Who are we backing? Naldy and Hewitt? Any others who can get to the final if they don't encounter FedEx along the way?
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 01-05-2006, 12:01 PM
TangoBird TangoBird is offline
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Default RE:Australian Open

What about Martina Hingis on the comeback trail? She's won a few matches already, and has another tournament to warm up after this one before the big slam event. She's a former champion of Australian Open and she loves it there. I saw 33/1 for her earlier. If she gets a favourable draw, those odds could tumble. What do you think?
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 01-05-2006, 04:12 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Australian Open

Good guestion? Is she ready to take a slam or will she need this entire season just to fine-tune her game?
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