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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-26-2005, 07:34 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

I have to say that I really like the Italians at +200 here. England/Spain both look rocky, either could get seriously fcuked in February. But the Italians? Both are playing German competition and look very likely to progress. I'm fairly certain that we'll see an Italian team in the CL final, so with a ticket at +200 I don't think you can go wrong.

Once half the teams drop out in the next round and both Italian teams are through... I don't think you'll see +200 around any more...
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Old 12-27-2005, 01:50 PM
Dominator Dominator is offline
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Default RE: Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

I like that bet.. I would say around 40-43% maybe for an Italian team to win at this stage.. When you look at whats left, the teams IMO that might beat the Italians are Barcelona, Lyon and Chelsea.. The rest I would consider rather big underdogs to knock them out.. And 2 of them meet already in this next round, so that leaves 2 that could a good chance against the Italians IMO.

In fact I will join you on that bet now [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]
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Old 12-27-2005, 05:45 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

I'm in. They both play German opposition and apart from Rangers I don't think you can ask for a better draw. One of the Italian teams is bound to make the final and unless they're playing either Chelsea or Barcelona... they will be favoured.
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Old 12-27-2005, 06:47 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Whoa Dom, surprise, surprise!

I only thought that AC Milan and Juve are present in this phase of the CL. But wait up! Inter Milan is still there and they're playing Ajax.

Oh boy, now I'm really going to load up on the Italians taking the CL at +200!
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Old 12-28-2005, 11:16 AM
Dominator Dominator is offline
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Default RE: Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Lol.. Yea, there is 3 Italian teams still in it dude.. And all with very fair draws in the next round.. Looks like very nice value to me..
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Old 12-28-2005, 07:39 PM
YOUNG GUN YOUNG GUN is offline
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Default RE:Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Spain (BARCA)
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Old 12-28-2005, 08:47 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Just so happens Barca is playing the best team in the competition: Chelsea. Don't see the Spanish ballet dancers going through against Mourinho's men...
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Old 12-29-2005, 01:27 AM
DrunkenGoon DrunkenGoon is offline
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Default RE: Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Barca wins home and away against Chelsea this year. There's no stopping this team in the CL this season, they have learned from last season's mistakes.

Only team that I can see troubling them is Lyon because of style of play. I don't think there's no better defensive team in the CL than Lyon as Chelsea, Milan and Inter will try to outscore a team like FCB.

Italian teams are usually value in the CL, but this season, I'm not so sure. True, Juve looks solid, but there's still doubt in net. How will Buffon recover from his injury? Milan is all glitter but their defense is just weak on the flanks. Cafu has lost a step and Maldini is around for the records. If Kaladze leaves at the break as it is rumoured, this team will not get past the next round. Inter had the firepower and they can play with anyone, but they never really perform in CL and as much as everyone believes in Maldini's star, I am a nonbeliever.

Here's the way I see it:
Bayern reinforces their midfield in the winter break (Peru, E. Europe) while Milan does nothing. Bayern wins the first leg 2-1 and holds out 1-1 at the Meazza. Sheva starts preparing for the WC.
Liverpool goes to Lisbon and bores them to deal, wins 1-0 late. Return leg, they win 1-0 late. Everybody sings you can't walk alone and think Peter Crouch is the new Ian Rush.
Real wins 3-1 at home as Cicinho, Robinho and Zidanho teach the Arsenal youngsters a lesson in the first leg. Lesson learned as Arsenal wins 2-0 in the return leg and go through.
Lyon has leaned the lesson from last season, as they go to PSV and hold out for a draw. Then they come home and gang bang them to a 5-1 with Carew scoring a trick and Fred locking up a spot on Brazil's WC squad.
Chelsea is in for a shocking surprise as Barcelona comes in with a 5-4-1 formation and bores them to death. A solo Etoo effort puts the visitors up and they lock it down the rest of the way. Mourinho accuses FCB of playing antifootball and UEFA suspends him for his negative comments. Barca turns on the style and wins the return leg 4-1.
Rangers - Villarreal, yawn... 0-0, 0-0, pk's. Villarreal wins 3-1 on PK's.
Bremen - Juve will be a goalfest as the first leg ends 3-3 as Bremen builds up a 3 goal lead only to blow it as they press forward for the jugular. Return leg is nothing like it as Juve works the 0-0 to perfection.
Ajax sells off 1/2 of their squad, field a team averaging 21 years old and wonder why they lose the first leg as their offside trap breaks down a couple of times losing 2-1. Inter finally enjoys a partizan crowd in CL action and wins the return leg 3-0.

From there, it's up to the draw gods, but I see:
Bayern over Villarreal, Arsenal takes out Liverpool, Barca over Inter and Lyon beats Juventus.

I'm not Nostradamus, I'll stop here.
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Old 12-29-2005, 09:39 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Nice write-up, Goon.

I see Chelsea and AC Milan going through though. Juve will think they're playing against their youth team and will run circles around Werder. Villarreal won't give Rangers a chance. Any result other that home and away wins will be a disgrace against a side that is 5th... in the Scottish Premiership.

Ajax can pack their boots as can Real. Liverpool won't have it easy, but they'll pull through while adopting an Italian style of play.

Lyon is the dark horse IMO. Can beat anyone on a given day, but can they hold their level for so many matches and rounds? I doubt it.
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Old 12-29-2005, 03:09 PM
DrunkenGoon DrunkenGoon is offline
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Default RE: Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

one other thing, by buying the individual teams you can get a better return, especially if you shop around....

Say you wanted to invest 1000 on this. With the prop, you get back 3000.
If you took pinacle's current lines:
Juve 6.5
Milan 11.5
Inter 11

invest 464 in juve, 262 in milan and 274 in inter and you're already ahead of the game. If you shop around, you should be able to get a lot better return.

Now, if you punched this in betbrain, you could get Juve at 7.00 at cris, milan you're already at world best at pinny and get inter at 12.00 at cris or canbet ,and you're looking at another 192 bucks in your pocket on the $1000 investment... Hard to throw away almost 20% when it only costs 5 minutes to sort it out and maybe transfer the funds if you're not loaded.

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Old 12-29-2005, 10:06 PM
Dominator Dominator is offline
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Default RE: Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Nice write-up Goon.. I will however prefere to have my money on the 3 italian teams playing against average teams in next round, compared to 1 spanish team playing Chelsea.. I did shop around, and got around 3.22 btw..
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 12-30-2005, 07:22 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default RE: Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

The best I found was 3.19, how's you get up to 3.22, Dom?

Goon, just how good is Lyon? It's a bit scary to see Pinnacle offer just over +600 while at the same time giving over 10/1 on last year's finalists.

I also like -250 on Villarreal to whack Rangers. I mean come on, 4th in Spain against 5th... in Scotland. I'm surprised they didn't make this one -2500.
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Old 03-07-2006, 07:37 PM
DrunkenGoon DrunkenGoon is offline
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Default Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Some horseshoes up Juventus' a$$, that's for sure...
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 03-09-2006, 06:19 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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Default Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Italians going strong, it's lookin' good! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]
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Old 03-09-2006, 07:30 AM
Pat Quinn Pat Quinn is offline
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Default Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Hard to see anyone beating Barcelona this year. Juventus were very lucky to advance, Benfica were made to look good by a terrible Liverpool performance today. Arsenal looked like world beaters against Real but if Henry misses any games they're done....plus they always have problems with consistency. AC Milan and Barcelona would make for a great final, this is the last year Milan will be up there with the best for awhile in my opinion.
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Old 03-16-2006, 10:52 PM
Dominator Dominator is offline
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Default Which country will lift the Champions League trophy?

Yes Conrad.. I actually got 5 teams between the last 8 now.. The 3 italians, Benfica and Villareal for a @2.56 price .. I would like to see Barcelona and Lyon get knocked out in the next round.. Would be a bit too exciting for my bet with one of them in the final.
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