Help with staking

[sandyh]

I'm a novice as far as soccer betting is concerned, but I have been reviewing performance and team composition in the English Premier League
On the basis of this I have the following predicted results which I will try to find a suitable way of betting on to try to achieve a return on my analysis time.

The help I'd like would be on whether the 1x2, asian or over/under and correct score markets will suit my selections. AND whether single or parlay bets would offer more chance of a long term profit.

Top start with I'll post my correct score predictions.
After that I'll add the best prices I've seen for each
Then I'll review which have been correct and which have been incorrect

Arsenal Birmingham 4-0

Aston Villa Liverpool 2-2

Blackburn Tottenham 1-1

Chelsea Newcastle 2-0

Everton Bolton 1-1

Man Utd Southampton 2-1

Norwich Fulham 1-1

Portsmouth West Brom 2-2

Crystal Palace Charlton 1-1

[sandyh]

Prices
Arsenal Birmingham 4-0
CS +1570 Pinn
AH
1x2
Over 2.5
Aston Villa Liverpool 2-2

Blackburn Tottenham 1-1

Chelsea Newcastle 2-0
CS +600 Ladbrokes
AH (-1) -102.6 Bet 365
1x2 1 -192 Betfair
Under 2.5 -127 Pinn (I expected better than this)
Everton Bolton 1-1

Man Utd Southampton 2-1

Norwich Fulham 1-1

Portsmouth West Brom 2-2

Crystal Palace Charlton 1-1

[utsbet]

IMO, there is money to be made on the Correct Score options, especially in games which you believe will be low scoring. If a game goes under 2.5 then there are only 6 possible scores (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0 and 0-2). Each of these options will pay more than $6.00 so it's a positive expectation selecting one of them. I generally like taking 0-0 at about $9-10 in games where stats show a 25% chance of no goals being scored.

I'd advise against betting on scores like 4-0 because they are too much of a lottery. Although the odds are better, there is too much variability and the odds don't reflect this. My suggestion would just be to take the over on that particular match.

Like correct score, the half/full double is also a smart long-term option. Once again, low scoring games present the best value with the Draw/Draw option. Whatever the market type, I don't think it's wise to be too flashy with your picks, keep it simple. Don't take correct scores with a large number of goals, and don't take half/full doubles with team A winning at HT and then team B winning the match.

Oh, and I don't like Asian Hcps.

Good luck!

[sandyh]

Thanks utsbet
As you can see I've struggled to collect prices for all the possible bets

I'll investigate on correct score prices where I am expecting a result under 2.5 goals and look at the overs where I expect a higher total score

It is all an area of research at the moment, and as the data starts to appear I'll see whether there are any profitable betting angles.

I am doubtful that there will be value on the 1x2 market, mainly because this looks likely to depend on very short priced favourites.

[DrunkenGoon]

Originally posted by: utsbetDon't take correct scores with a large number of goals, and don't take half/full doubles with team A winning at HT and then team B winning the match.

Unless you're betting stuff like Panionios/Dinamo Tbilisi, of course [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]