Poland - USA (Friday)

fin · 06-13-2002, 01:36 PM

Isn't this game kind of fishy now.. if USA wins, they'll play Italy - if not, they'll get Mexico. Mexico has been pretty good so far, but they should be easier to beat in the playoffs than Italy. Will USA go for the win here?

Conrad · 06-13-2002, 02:34 PM

Yes, this will be interesting now. The US can't afford to lose so it seems unlikely that they will aim for a draw. One bad move and they could be out otherwise (as long as Portugal wins by the same margin or there is a draw in the other game). Personally I think the US could do better against a dreadful Italy side that can hardly get a shot in on goal. The Mexicans know everything there is to know about the American side so maybe Bruce Arena will be keen to play the runners up instead.

Conrad · 06-13-2002, 02:47 PM

Getting another day's rest is not the only bonus that awaits team USA if they win the group. As group winners they would play their match against Italy at the same time and at the same venue as tomorrow's Poland encounter. Surely that counts for something...

DrunkenGoon · 06-13-2002, 04:09 PM

I'm taking a flyer on Poland here. Yes, they stunk like nobody else at the world cup (well, kinda like France) but they still have a game to play. I've been reading about poles thanking the koreans for a wonderful experience and trying to reward the host nation with a result. The crowd will definitelly be pro-polish here as Korea needs all the help they can get.

Dudek has been a dud so far but he's a quality keeper. Also, we've seen teams already eliminated playing without pressure coming up with decent efforts. Nigeria drew England, Equador beat Croatia and Slovenia should've won against Paraguay (1-0 up plus up a man should have a positive outcome).

When was the last time the US was a fave in the world cup? I guess they were a slight one against Iran in France and we know how that turned out.

Will the US play for a matchup against a team they are familiar with (Mexico) or do they think they are ready to take on the giants (Italy)? We all know that Italians barely scrape by in the first round and then find their rythem.

Will the US play for a draw? No! Will they be happy with one? YES!

Poland +0.5 is the play for me here!

parkendhead · 06-13-2002, 04:26 PM

Agree very much with you DG. I know a lot has been said (correctly) on here about Poland and I've been impressed with the US team's organisation particularly in their performances to date, but the way the prices have gone forces my hand really. I'll be looking at backing Poland either at 4/1 on the money line or on the handicap - not saying they'll win, or even draw, just that at the price they've got to be worth a bet.

Regards,

Parkendhead

pokerjoe · 06-13-2002, 04:28 PM

I'm worried about this game, but that might just be USA-fan anxiety.

Nonetheless, apart from that, I have to say this line is bad. This should be about a pick'em affair. The big prices on the USA pre-tourney, when they were in the +500's, were stupid, and this -120 and such stuff is equally stupid the other way.

Take Poland +1/2, -102 at Five Dimes is the best I know of. I haven't seen any evidence of 'going home' teams not playing for it in their last game. Look at the examples Goon gave. Hell, sometimes they can play better, for fun even.

Conrad · 06-13-2002, 05:20 PM

The big question is do the Americans want to win? Because if the answer is yet they can do so easily. They can outgun and outrun Poland, no doubt about it. I would not take the +0.5 or a Poland win. If anything take the draw. But if the Americans go out there wanting to top the group they'll take this one easily.

PJ, what do you think of your side? Will they want to take on Mexico and fix the game for a draw?

Conrad · 06-13-2002, 05:24 PM

One more thing: who would the US prefer to face next: Germany or Spain? I would think that the latter would be a much better idea which is why they should go out to win tomorrow. They should find Spain's lack of defence enticing, whereas the Germans are a team that nobody should hope to play against.

jjgold · 06-13-2002, 05:40 PM

USA -1/2 -118

jjgold · 06-13-2002, 05:41 PM

under 2.5 -133

Conrad · 06-13-2002, 10:46 PM

Please USA don't rig this match. Rig basketball or boxing but not soccer. Nonetheless, I have a funny feeling that something fishy will be going on, which is why I'll be playing the HT/FT USA/Draw prop. USA will definitely score the first goal in this match, that's easy money. But look for them to let in a silly goal in the dying minutes if need be, or give away a pointless penalty.

chestrockwells · 06-14-2002, 02:13 AM

Everything else being equal, there's no way that the US or any team in the world would rather face Italy rather than Mexico. Yes, despite the upsets etc., international soccer is very much about reputation.
Despite Italy's very average form, (which by the way, is not that unusual for Italy, who seem to always get better as the tournament wear on)...........no one wants to play Italy.
If you really want to look at it another way, think of it this way:
Right now, Argentina is out of the tournament, having lost to Sweden & England and beating Nigeria by one goal. In a hypothetical tournament if the US could choose who to play......... Argentina, Sweden, or Mexico, who do you think the US would choose? You see my point? Current form would say play Argentina, but I guarantee you that it wouldn't be the choice. Simply put, Argentina could come out and lose to the US or win 4-0. The other 2 teams couldn't and more importantly don't believe they could.
Results aside, I don't think the US BELIEVES they can beat Italy. The US knows it can beat Mexico.

pokerjoe · 06-14-2002, 03:16 AM

I don't think the USA has anywhere near ready for being strategic in gaining points. They're just going to go out and play their hardest and hope for the best. No way they play for a draw.

However, I could see them, if they get ahead, packing it in and settling for the draw as the worst case scenario, as they did somewhat against Korea.

I like Conrad's points about Poland not being the type to show much when playing for nothing. They stank in their pre-Cup friendlies, and stank even when it's been for all the marbles. I think this is a seriously dispirited, jaded team, playing against the absolute opposite, a young win and goal hungry excited-to-be-here Yank squad.

I bet Poland +1/2 goal because I'd already, pre-Cup, bet USA at +550, so I'm locking up the profit, for an unprofessional gambling reason: I feel like I have enough emotionally invested in a Yank win that I don't need money riding on the game as well.

But I do think there's no value on betting the US at minus numbers. Much as I love them, they aren't that good. They aren't terrible any more, and that itself is a great stride forward for them. I love reading the forums and news reports and seeing the US get respect as a passable side, which they haven't been in the past. But they STILL are not so good yet that they should be favored by this much over a fair European squad. If you bet on the USA here, you're betting on their superior attitude, and merely equal talent.

TTinCO · 06-14-2002, 03:54 AM

Poland can not hang this year. They got throttled by Portugal & will get throttled harder than Ned Beaty in Deliverance by the US.

3-0 in a boring, but beautiful walkover

Conrad · 06-14-2002, 08:55 AM

OK, here's my take on this. If the US needed a win to advance then I would be condfident in a comfortable victory for them. Unfortunately they don't and a draw might suit them even better - at least in the short term.

But as PJ mentioned, they won't play for a draw, and even my earlier doubts are now being alleviated. Bruce Arena has done well to motivate his team and I don't think he'll suddenly be telling them to take it easy, not get too far ahead, and let Poland equalise in the dying minutes. That's not his style. The players are in high spirits and they'll want to win - not only the game but also the group.

They are the better team, no doubt about it. They're fast, they have great ball-control, they're ambitious, they're in control of their fate here. Poland are the most out-of-form team at the WC, team morale is at an all-time-low, their coach is no tactician or motivator, and they never make an effort in "friendly" matches. What's worse, it's not only match form that they're missing, it's physical form that's the problem: strength, stamina, etc. Their only good striker has been warming the bench at his club too often, not getting enough match-practice. And as the last nail in their coffin, their only midfielder is suspended.

The only way this team has a chance in this last game is if their coach lets some of the younger guys play. If he puts out the "old guard" they will get clobbered. In essence that would probably do them more good than harm, because maybe they would finally wake up, get a proper coach (from abroad), and start building a proper national team. The only question is will the US provide them with this favour? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

rocketman · 06-14-2002, 11:40 AM

Well 2-0 Poland after 5 minutes. Looking good. Except for Pinnacle that is, first goal under 3 minutes wasnt it?

alysheba88 · 06-14-2002, 04:23 PM

I had such a bad feeling about this game. Especially when they waved off the US goal.

A terrible choking performance by the US. Its excusable. Agoos should not be allowed to set foot on the pitch again. EVER.

Thank God for South Korea. The US deserves some luck every now and then. Not going through to the second round would have been far more devastating then the last World Cup. Considering the position they were in.

I guess there are two opposite schools of thought going into the Mexico game. One is that they choked so bad and got a second life now that they will play fast and loose against Mexico.

The other is that absent the first half against Portugal they havent played well since.

I am leaning toward the more optimistic view from a US perspective (assuming Agoos is banished). I know Mexico will be tough. Would be interested in reading what others think.

TTinCO · 06-14-2002, 10:18 PM

Sheba, you hit it right on the head. Agos is a POS!!!! How many times can you get burned and still play!?!?!??!?!?

He ought to be named toast.

chestrockwells · 06-15-2002, 09:29 AM

The Spanish commentator remarked that Agoos has played for Arena since he was out of high school. I guess they really go way back, but at some point you have to really think hard about replacing him. It's really hard watching him sometimes cause you know he can get burned a couple of ways, and you're almost waiting for it to happen. But then who do you play instead of Agoos?