The Real World Cup

Shawn · 05-21-2002, 12:42 PM

We're trying to put up weird props as we think of them. Here's today's:

Total goals by: Raul + Figo + Zidane + Hierro + Morientes

16.5: Under 4/6, Over 5/4

Shawn
Pinnacle

fin · 05-21-2002, 03:40 PM

Is the bet on even if any one of them (say Figo) fails to play in the tournament?

Shawn · 05-21-2002, 06:28 PM

All bets on.

Conrad · 05-21-2002, 07:22 PM

Is Hierro the team's penalty taker?

Shawn, personally I think it would be good to see to advance/not to advance bets on all teams. If you only offer one option on each team then that's not the same. I don't believe you have both to advance and not to advance odds on any single team.

Another good one would be total group points for each team. Total goals in tournament is another one. And if you wanted to be original, how about to finish second in group? Nobody has this bet. They all have first or to advance (or not to advance). You can't bet on the runner up anywhere.

Shawn · 05-22-2002, 10:18 AM

Cons,

Two-way "to advance" pricing is too hard to maintain when there are more than two teams in a group (unless you use ridiculous margins). Any time you take a limit bet on one team, you have to recalibrate all four in this case. The way we have it now we just shorten up whenever someone bets...early bird gets the worm and it's a bit of a reward/patience game for early punters.

Cheers,
Shawn

Conrad · 05-22-2002, 08:24 PM

Shawn, you mentioned sometime back that a certain bet offer wasn't worth putting up because you didn't think it would raise interest.

I'm willing to deposit $4,000 via Neteller to Pinnacle if I get attractive odds on the following props:
Poland to get 0 points
Poland to get 1 points
Poland to get 2 points
Poland to get 3 points

Two Pay Pal books, Intertops and Sportingbetusa.com, carry this bet, but no Neteller books as far as I am aware. If you're willing to give me odds I'm willing to put a grand on each and stop looking elsewhere.

Conrad · 05-22-2002, 10:14 PM

Also, you have the following props:

Not to advance:

520 Turkey 1 to 1
523 Germany 5 to 2
522 Poland 11 to 10

Is there any chance of getting 'to advance' odds on any of these. Once again I'm eager to get the Neteller machine rolling if the possibility arises.

Shawn · 05-23-2002, 12:24 PM

In an effort to draw some 2-way action on this Polish stuff, we're up with:

Total group points, Poland: 4
Overs, unders 9/10 your pick
4 is a push.

the rest of this stuff is too much calculation for me. I worked out Korea's projected points before the draw and it took me six hours...

S

Conrad · 05-23-2002, 02:44 PM

Hi Shawn, hmmmm, tough to call. I was really looking forward to betting on exact number of points. One quick question: is it possible to play a parlay on the world cup coupon?

Shawn · 05-23-2002, 04:27 PM

The coupon prices will be parlayable round-by-round for each team. What we're trying to avoid is people betting on/against the same team insuccessive matches. Right now the first 16 games are parlayable. After each group finishes a match, the next match for each team in that group will be opened for parlays.

S

Conrad · 05-23-2002, 06:04 PM

Ok, so it seems I can't parlay the same team in three successive matches which would give me just over 33/1. Any chance I can get that price on Poland? That should be the easiest to calculate (three losses). I'm willing to put $1K on 33/1 on nil points and another $1K on the under in the 4 points prop, as long as I can get both bets on simultaneously.

cservice · 05-23-2002, 09:23 PM

[img]file://localhost/C:/Documents and Settings/User/My Documents/TAFtransp.gif[/img]

Conrad · 05-24-2002, 03:38 PM

If anyone's interested, Surrey Sports has lines out for all group phase matches and you can parlay all you want.

Shawn, about the lack of two-way betting on the advance/not to advance props, I think it's a bit of a cop out to be honest. Loads of books offer both-way betting on every team in the tournament. I think what it lets you do is offer really low odds because you can't get punished by people betting the other way. Let's take Turkey not to advance at Pinnacle @ 'evens'. This is the lowest price I have found anywhere in the world. The only reason you can offer such a price is because you can't get hit on the other side (to advance). Give Turkey to advance at -120 or even -140 and it'll get nuked, I assure you.

alec · 05-25-2002, 05:28 AM

Shawn,

I must agree with Conrad. To advance/not to advance props are the most interesting thing in the WC. That's what the tournament is about, who will advance further, not who will win a particular match.

We offered these propositions when I worked in Kiev and they were the most popular once. Given, we used much higher margins than Pinnacle does, so it was definitely easier. But use higher margins then! Lines with high margins are better than no lines at all!

It requires a lot of work, no questions about it. But come on, WC happens only once in four years!

Shawn · 05-25-2002, 11:49 AM

Conrad...

we're not interested in the 33/1. Correlation is way too strong.

Alec...

I'm always interested in the Eastern European approach to bookmaking. My teacher in this business was a Russian who was taking action before I was born. (Oleg, if you're reading this, call me, damn it.)

you write: "Lines with high margins are better than no lines at all!"

You might be right, but it's not Pinnacle's style. There is most definitely a market niche for books that offer mountains of props at 1.83 each side, 1.80 each side, 1.75 each side etc. It's not a niche we're interested in pursuing. What we offer, we offer at thin margins. 10-cent soccer, NFL, NBA, NHL; 8-cent baseball ML, 10-cent totals, 10-cent runlines.

The volume I'm writing on the soccer props doesn't justify the mathematical grinding that would be required on these to get them in the neighbourhood of 4% hold. We've put up "to advance" in Euro 2000 and in the UEFA Cup since and our client base is such that the volume of all those props together was likely less than our 5-cent-special on the Real Madrid--Leverkusen handicap. I'm writing gobs of 2- and 5-dime bites on the first round handicaps, but am finding it hard to get nibbles on my 2-way "to win WC" stuff. On day of match we'll take 20K/bet on the handicaps and that's going to be fun.

I like props as much as the next guy but in terms of business, I have a sneaky suspicion it's the Asians who really know what's happening when it comes to cashing in. Write a truckload of money on the handicap at juice-95, hold half-of-one percent of fourteen gazillion dollars, and don't trouble your head about totals, to advance props, or whether Sven Goran-Eriksson is caught applauding a Swedish goal against England on camera.

Thanks for your ideas, and feel free to have the last word on it.

Cheers,
Shawn

alec · 05-25-2002, 08:15 PM

Thanks for your ideas, and feel free to have the last word on it.

Shawn,

If you are offended by my post (I am not sure why), I do apologize. It's not my goal to "have last word on it", why? I just like discussing this issue, because I personally like "to advance" props and am a bit frustrated by their absence.

If the reason you don't post "to advance" props is that the action does not justify the amount of work required to make them up and maintain after that, it makes sense.

On the other hand, I have a very hard time understanding why "to advance" props are not popular. It's like first half bets are way more popular than full time bets. Possible, but strange.

From my personal experience, "to advance" props were extremely popular. We could call the World Cup a success when Spain didn't advance to the last 16 in France. In the USA everything was decided when Columbia failed.

Maybe these props are not popular, because almost nobody posts them. Don't you find it ridiculous how everybody has the odds on "to win a group", something that means very little, but not the odds on to advance/ not to advance?

Remember, just several years ago nobody but the Czechs offered all ATP and WTA tournaments, or some obscure European and South American soccer leagues and now more and more books do that.

Conrad · 05-25-2002, 09:02 PM

Personally I've already placed a few grand on the 'to advance' props, and not a single penny on group winners.

It's too bad I can't parlay match bets at Pinnacle like I can at Ladbrokes, Surrey Sports or loads of other places - it just means less turnover for Pinnacle and more for other books. Maybe it's for the better though, especially if my voodoo-magic associates help me land the 25/1 chance.

AussieVamp2 · 05-25-2002, 11:49 PM

<< Shawn,

I must agree with Conrad. To advance/not to advance props are the most interesting thing in the WC. That's what the tournament is about, who will advance further, not who will win a particular match.

We offered these propositions when I worked in Kiev and they were the most popular once. Given, we used much higher margins than Pinnacle does, so it was definitely easier. But use higher margins then! Lines with high margins are better than no lines at all!

It requires a lot of work, no questions about it. But come on, WC happens only once in four years! >>

I agree with Shawn, it is not worth the work if no-one bets on them. Pretty sure that in Kiev you would not have done NBA 2nd half team totals either alec. Different customer base. North Americans = don't give a crap about soccer, hence no bets, or the occasional bet from an Israeli wiseguy, or one or two 10 dollar bets. So from both Shawn's and my personal experience alec here those bet types are about as popular as the flu.

Ahead · 05-26-2002, 09:13 AM

Alec-I´m sure that Shawn wasn´t in any way offended by your post.

I would also like to thank you for your work with the WC soccer contest.Together with Direcbet and Pariaction for sponsoring it.