Sam Houston Scouting Report
Just thought I'd share this with those who likes to play Sam Houston. This is about the only track besides Los Al that I can sit down and follow the whole card without being interrupted. I got this through email and think there's some good info there.
<< I play Sam Houston every day. As far as a track bias, early in the meet... speed held incredibly well. You almost never saw a horse get passed in the stretch. However, lately a number of closers have come on to do well, especially in route races. So, not being a real student of track biases, I would say that the track in Houston is playing fair.
I think the key to winning at SH is taking a long look at the connections and who they have riding for them. For example, Kevin Cogburn and Rita Helton on any decent longshot should be considered. If the horse has a chance, those are the two riders that I look at to bring home a longshot. Conversely, there are a number of jockeys who are winning at lower than a 5-6% clip who get good mounts and have really underachieved. Mark Page and Buck Harris have not been impressive at all and even veteran Ted Gondron has had some mounts that looked great and he has not done much with them. Also watch J. Beasley who has just started riding at SH and is tuning up for the Lone Star meet. He has won with 8 of his first 22 mounts and hit the board 13 times.
Steve Asmussen trained horses are always overbet, so if you can beat him, it is worth a shot.
I play primarily exotics and SH is the one track where I always have to include a horse that I would not ordinarily consider. Many impossible horses have been able to hit the board making it tough to handicap, but very rewarding in the exotic pools. Any small sign of improvement may be enough...such as a strong back Beyer from 6 or 7 races back....renewed early speed in last race, even just a small improvement is good...hopeless looking horses who move up in class which is a good sign of trainer intent. I almost always eliminate horses who ran at Blue Ribbon Downs before and Remington Park shippers have also been very disappointing. However, prefer the local horses over the shippers from stronger circuits who "look too good to be true".
I hope this helps a little bit, even though I am not much help on track biases... The last time I played track biases was at Garden State Park where not one horse outside of post 6 had won all year....then my top rated horse went off at 22-1, I backed off because he was on the outside post...and I wasted a $46 winner !
Dave Stewart >>
As i told you last night in the chat,
the first flight of animals have been dominant here, not sure where the guy thinks closers are doing better now. i agree with most of the other stuff the guy wrote.
but my *systyem* is to watch the first race at any track, if the winner goes wire to wire or was <1.5 behind at the first call and is not the chalk,(btw I never rely on the charts for this, I have to see it with my own eyes) I'll download the card and bet the early speed till I get beat by a closer.
I've downloaded 11 of the last 12 cards, one can argue my stuff is a function of the order of races on any particular card but that's how i've been doing it lately.
Was nice to meet up in the chat with ya last night,
Oh yea Rita Helton stinks too.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-tongue.gif[/img]
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