will history repeat...will War Emblem get away easy...

[Greedo]

If you look at it, really the only early speed here is War Emblem, E Dubai, and Medaglia D'oro. I'm not including Came Home as he looks to be rating now, off that PAC CLASS victory.

So if you throwout E Dubai, as I do. I think he has no shot after training up to this thing off what 100+ days, and he was sick during that time too, well if we throw him out, then that just leaves the race favorite to contest the pace. So the question is, will Bailey do that? I don't know. If WE and MO are burning away up front, they'll both be done for, so might Bailey try and sit off him ala Came Home. And if this is what happens, could we be looking at the Derby all over again.

I think TA was the one who said that there is good money to be made in betting horses that everybody thinks are going to get into a speed duel but in fact said duel never materializes.

I don't know if this is what will happen, but I do think it's a good posibility.

[The Actuary]

Hi Greedo,

Well we're almost there.

I'm going to reserve opinion till posts are drawn, but I have a long history of taking stands vs the derby winner the rest of their careers and I do not think WE will be the exception.

But the real reason for my post is, the speed vs speed non duel reference really was made in regards to cheaper races, generally claiming sprints, where the bad horse simply cannot overcome a slew of potential problems at the gate. In the higher profile stakes, as you know from my write ups here, I consider jockey intent to be crucial. I guess in other words the statistical support for that theory was really only tested in the cheap races. I do not know if the same stats hold up for the big horses.

TA

[Greedo]

TA - thanks for the post. Makes sense and I'm glad you explained the differences.

will reconsider my idea now.

thanks again

and yes, my hands are getting sweaty too. can't wait for pp draw.

[The Actuary]

To be extremely explicit,

the stats suggested that among the best bets in racing are,

front speed types in claiming races, with ML 5-10/1, that drift up in price,

as the crowd assumes an unfavorable pace situation.

It doesn't mean it's not the case in big stake routes,

it's just that we took a subset of all $18 winners and tried to find common characteristics,

stakes/allowances/MSWT/handicaps are generally unkind to longshots and consequently we hardly even looked at them.

TA

[gradysfalcon]

War Emblem has final work
By BRAD FREE
ARCADIA, Calif. - In his last workout before the final start of his career, speedball War Emblem became a stretch-runner.
War Emblem went slow early and fast late in a seven-furlong work Saturday at Santa Anita, where the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner is preparing for the $4 million Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday at Arlington International.
While the work by War Emblem was uneventful, a work scheduled for Saturday at Hollywood Park for Momentum was canceled because of an injury that will prevent him from running in the Breeders' Cup.
War Emblem worked Saturday at noon. Under exercise rider Dana Barnes, he broke off at the seven-furlong pole and got the first quarter in 25.24 seconds under a strong hold. He picked up the tempo on the backstretch, getting the next quarter in 24.64 (a half in 49.88).
Into the far turn, Barnes let out a notch, and War Emblem responded. He whistled the the next quarter-mile in 23.03 (six furlongs in 1:12.91). With Barnes urging him, War Emblem finished with a final eighth in 11.67 for a seven-furlong time of 1:24.58. He galloped out a mile in 1:36.80.
Trainer Bob Baffert was pleased, while offering an appropriate perspective on the work. Looking at his stopwatch as War Emblem galloped out, Baffert recognized the slow early pace contributed to War Emblem's finish.
"Hopefully, we'll get those fractions in the [Breeders' Cup]," he said, smiling.
It isn't likely. Along with War Emblem, front-runners E Dubai and Medaglia d'Oro insure a testing pace in the Classic.
"The three of us have the same style," Baffert said. "But you can't worry about that, you'll drive yourself crazy. All I know is he's doing great. How he draws and how he runs, you can't worry about it."

He added that War Emblem "is happy, he's put on some weight, he looks good."

Asked if War Emblem is as good now as he was going into the Kentucky Derby, Baffert said, "He is, and he's stronger, too."

War Emblem has won seven races and $3,491,000 from 12 starts, including front-running wins in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Haskell Invitational, and Illinois Derby. Owned by The Thoroughbred Corp., War Emblem is a leading candidate for Horse of the Year honors.

He will be ridden Saturday by Victor Espinoza