Dover - Best Buy "Monster" 400

[Crony]

Bowyer to Win 30/1

He really hasn't ever been much of a threat here.
Still 30/1 seems a little steep.

What do you guys use for your comparison tracks for Dover?

[h_upmann]

Originally Posted by Crony

What do you guys use for your comparison tracks for Dover?

Bristol or Richmond. The other mile tracks (Phoenix, New Hampshire) are too flat to be comparable to Dover.

[Crony]

Thanks for the input.

I know Dover and Bristol are both concrete and have had read Drivers describing Dover as a big Bristol.

Seems like lots of drivers are good at Dover but so so at Bristol or the reverse.

Last 5 years Mark Martin/Jimmy Johnson have good results at Dover and very indifferent results at Bristol. Kevin Harvick/Dale Earnhardt Jr have been very good at Bristol and mediocre at Dover.

[Hartley]

Use Dover for Dover. It's a very unique track.

[heartman]

I use Bristol to help handicap this race.

Early plays on Kenseth and Biffle to win race. Both 12/1.

Qualifying

Biffle ov Martin 52.50 tw 50
Labonte ov Sadler 57.50 tw 50

5dimes

[Crony]

Qualifying 3x

Went against you on the Labonte/Sadler matchup
Kind of wonder what you see in this matchup.
Labonte squeeked by both races last year, other than that it looks really lopsided for Sadler in my opinion.

Sadler over Labonte -1.10

Busch, Kurt over Montoya -1.30
This one is very tight, might even be a bad play.
Kind of banking on Busch putting it together a little bit.

[heartman]

In 31 starts at Dover, Labonte has 3 poles, 15 top 10 starts and a qualifying avg of 13.7. Pretty impressive!

Last years spring race he qual. 3rd at 152.304 mph. Sadler qual. 7th at 151.471.

Last fall at Dover, he qual. 8th at 152.439 and Sadler qual. 12th at 152.284.

So he beat Sadler both times here, last year, in the new car.

In my opinion, they have equal eqiupment, the same motors, so I think I have the better driver for this track.

I don't like the fact that Sadlers sponsor, best buy, is the sponsor for this race. Extra motivation for Sadler.

Could go either way, Crony, and it may even come down to who gets the best qual. draw.

[Crony]

Agree the draw could have a big impact.

Looks to me like they are going in different directions.

[heartman]

Good picks, Crony!

The Truck race is TAPE DELAYED on speed channel at 8pm. The actual start time is 5:18 pm. So I'm listening to the race on MRN radio and after about lap 15, I check thegreek(lines are off) and then 5dimes(truck lines are still up). I could have taken a shot, but didn't, and instead call 5dimes and say if I give you some important bad line info, will you give me $25? I tell the guy what's up and at 1st, he didn't believe me. After about a minute on hold, the lines go off the board and they credit me with a $25 free play.

I've given them bad line info before and never asked for or received $25. This was a Huge mistake, though, and I think I deserve the $25.

8 matchups and all TO WIN odds still on the board 15 laps into the race.

[Crony]

Don't see much in the win odds, maybe Truex at 20.

Truex over Kahne -1.45
Johnson over Edwards -1.30
Gordon +1.35 vs Johnson
Kenseth +1.30 vs Stewart

After this race remind me not to bet on Kenseth or lay a price vs Edwards.
Thanks in advance.

[Crony]

Waltrip over Elliott +1.30

Other than starting position, this looks like a pure coin flip to me.
Maybe even slight edge (hard to freakin believe) Waltrip.

[heartman]

RACE

Martin over Ragan 67.50 tw 50
Bowyer ov Kurt Busch 60 tw 50
Montoya ov Sadler 52.50 tw 50
Johnson Under 5.5, 62.50 tw 50
Johnson to win race 100 tw 585

5dimes
Good Luck!!!

[Crony]

Heartman,

Took Johnson +3.25 vs Edwards/Biffle/Gordon/Stewart.
Think this is a little better than the 5.5/1 to win the race available at some places.

Reutimann +1.20 vs Sorrenson

[heartman]

That's a better pick, Crony. Hopefully we both win!

I got the +585 sat. night.

[h_upmann]

Originally Posted by Crony

Don't see much in the win odds, maybe Truex at 20.

Agree there's some value on Truex.
I've got him and KuBu both at 22-1 (each way).

[Hartley]

Possibly one of the most dull races I ever watched

[h_upmann]

Originally Posted by Hartley

Possibly one of the most dull races I ever watched

Roger that. Couldn't wait for it to end.

[Hartley]

You know the race is a dud when they spend 10 minutes showing the cameramen and the guy who brings drinks to Larry McReynolds.