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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2007, 06:10 PM
Crony Crony is offline
Join Date: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,029
Default Miami - Ford 400

Some divergent prices out there this week.
Sort of a tough race to get a handel on for a few reasons.

You don't know if Johnson is going to coast or race.
The track is somewhat different than the other 1.5 mile tracks.

To Win, 3x

Biffle @ 20 (would have worked the last 3 years at miami)

Kenseth @ 13.5 some value here

Edwards @ 15 pure value play. Obviously Rousch has done well at the track.

Truex @ 11.5 very strong at Atlanta and Texas and Miami last year.

It looks to me like Gordon and Johnson are significantly over priced.
Stewart as well.

Might end up taking some Bowyer @ 20 and Burton @ 30 as well.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2007, 11:31 PM
fullofpace fullofpace is offline
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 167

crony, i'm in a good spot due to some fantasy shit i got into. here is the match up, who do you like...


i can't win but 2nd is worth over 75k and i'm sitting 4th by a short margin.(6pts) (each spot on the track is worth 2points)

the other contenders have the same guys left on thier roster, who do you like in this 4 spot matchup to win or at least run better?

the race leaves a lot of value on anyone other than jeff or jimmy. truex ran great last year and at 13, seems like the early lead.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 11-14-2007, 12:48 AM
Crony Crony is offline
Join Date: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,029


Very tough group.
Will give you all the info I have on the 4 and my opinion at the end.

Driver previews at race2win

Race 2 Win: NEXTEL Cup Series Race Notes

Race 2 Win: NEXTEL Cup Series Race Notes

Race 2 Win: NEXTEL Cup Series Race Notes

Race 2 Win: NEXTEL Cup Series Race Notes

They are using the same tire as Atlanta.
I put Texas, Atlanta, and Charlotte as most similar.


Bowyer - Kan (2) Ind (13) Chi (10) LV (36) Cal1 (6) 06- Mia (10) Tx2 (5) Kan (9) Cal2 (3) Mic2 (33) Ind (4)

Burton - Tx2 (6) Cha2 (4) Cal2 (4) Ind (8) Mic1 (24) Cha1(24) Tx1 (1) LV(15) Cal1(8) 06- Kan (28) Cal 1 (36)

Harvick - Kan (6) Ind (7) 06- was a flat track car - Pho2 (1) Nh2(1) Pho1(1) Mar1 (7) more history before but only tracks like richmond/phoenix/and short tracks

Busch - Kan(41) Cha1(30) LV (9)

Despite Harvick taking what appears to be a good car and Harvick being good at Miami last few years (better than Burton), I think you have to rate Burton ahead of Harvick.

Burtons finishes at Atlanta/Tx/Charlotte compared to Harvick

Burton 4 - 1 - 24 - 4 - 5 - 6
Harvick 25 - 29 - 21 - 33 - 15 - 10

If it wasn't for Burtons indifferent form at Miami, i would call this matchup a no brainer.

As far as Bowyer/Kyle Busch, very tough call

Comparing the tracks in question

Bowyer - 6 - 16 - 29 - 2 - 6 - 19
Busch - 32 - 37 - 30 - 3 - 20 - 4

Busch has 2 bad finishes at Miami, 38 and 41.
Bowyer 10th last year.

Busch has run really well down the stretch.

Hilton has the following matchups

Busch - 1.35 vs Truex
Burton - 1.40 vs Kahne
Bowyer -1.45 vs Harvick

I would put Harvick 4th.
I think if I had to have a top ten for my life I would go with Burton.
If I wanted a driver most likely to win the race, Kyle Busch.

Bowyer is kind of locked into his points spot, 4th is 146 points back.
2nd 155 ahead. He is only really racing for the win.

Busch can't catch Bowyer, but could be passed by a few but doubt he even cares.

Harvick and Burton are both in a mid pack.

On the year, at these subset of tracks (California, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Michigan, Chicago, Kansas, and Texas), top tens

Burton - 8 (5 out of top ten).
Busch - 6 (7 out).
Bowyer - 6 (7 out).
Harvick - 4 (9 out).

All that aside I would probably just go ahead and start kyle busch.
But it is very close between him and Burton, Bowyer a very close 3rd.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 11-14-2007, 01:07 AM
fullofpace fullofpace is offline
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 167

WOW. thanks for your efforts. i'm thinking the same way. if i choose a driver to win, then klye is a no brainer, but if i was to point race then burton is the man. klye busted his ass to win his last busch race for hendrick and would expect the same on sunday. i'm with you on harvick and i'm kinda thinking that clint has peaked, although has nothing to lose. i rate the new miami track as the same as vegas and atlanta, and burton was even at both.

most likely, i'm racing for the win and klye will be the guy. sundays a ways off, so we will see.

again thanks for your extra effort. i owe you a beer at least for that.
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Old 11-15-2007, 08:45 PM
willcover willcover is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 29

Great write up crony. I like Jaime Mac +135 @ the Greek in a qualifying matchup with Juan Pablo. The Ganassi cars have been quick at the last few intermediate tracks but as you stated this one is different and the Rousch cars of today-gone tomorrow seem to be good here.
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 11-18-2007, 02:05 PM
Crony Crony is offline
Join Date: Nov 2000
Posts: 3,029

Played some of these earlier at better prices, the ones that still have value in my opinion

Burton over Kahne -2.00
Edwards over Jr -1.85
Kenseth over Jr -1.80
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