Formula 1 - GP of Indianapolis

[KentBrockman]

I´m VERY late this weekend and most odds are gone....., but here are my thoughts anyway (from earlier in the week unitl today)

YTD stakes 16.6765 - back 24.942 - win/loss + 8.2655

Indianapolis is a very strange circuit with the longest high speed straight of all races (you need a powerful engine there) and a extremly slow infield section (you need a good chasis and a lot of downforce there), so the teams will have to find a compromise.

Actually I´m tending more towards the cars, who are fast in slow corners....., because I don´t think one can make good the time a car looses in the infield section on the 20 second straight, but it should work the other way around - so I expect Renault to be not too bad here, but it´s not "their" circuit.

perhaps some additional ideas:
- the Friday private session will be more valueable than in the races before, because the teams who participate here will have more time to find a perfect set-up for this unique track, so Renault, Jaguar,... could be "hot" especially for Friday
- a lot of drivers are new to Indianapolis - nearly all newbies are coming from lower Euro-series and don´t know the circuit
- it´s expected to be quite cold (around 18 degrees) and that should be an advantage for the Bridgestone teams or better said not a disadvantage for the Bridgestone teams - for Saturday and race-day there is rain possible, but actually it´s only a probatility of around 20-30%


I´ll wait with my bets unless there pop up good offers

-------------------


books are super-lazy with offering odds this week, therefore a long-shot


1. Trulli on podium @9.0 with Centrebet/Ladbrokes - stake 0.111 units (to win 1.0)

IF there is a circuit Indianapolis can be compared with, than it´s the Hockenheimring - Trulli with a very good performance there with 3rd in quali I, 4th in quali II and 3rd in the race.

The characteristics of the track should fit Renault - they were the fastest team in low speed sections (apart of the 20 second straight at full power, most of the track is low speed) this season and their improved engine, that was introduced in Monza should be helpful on the full speed straight (Monza wasn´t that bad for them like the results pretend - Trulli not that far away in qualifying and Alonso with a good race).

I´ve mentioned above, that I rate the Friday private session higher than in the last races (no team has testing data from Indianapolis) and therefore a good qualifying position is possible - Renault with the best starts in the last races and that is of course an advantage (I think Trulli has improved two or three positions at the start in each of the last races).

Renault and especially Trulli has nothing to loose here - Renaults 4th place in the constructors-CS is secure, but the third place isn´t possible - Trulli 8th in the drivers CS with no chance for improvement and the guys behind him shouldn´t be a problem - so there is absolutely no pressure on him.

A completely different story at the other teams
- NOONE of the three drivers with still a chance for the title (Michael, Montoya, Raikkonen) can risk anything - a retirement would probably be the end of all CS dreams, so noone will risk too much, neither in qualifying (a spin and the 20th grid positions would also be the end) nor in the race
- ALSO the second drivers of the Top - teams (Rubens, Ralf and Coulthard) are in a difficult position, because it´s clear, that they have to help their teammates and with the new rules (no team order), this will be difficult

So, Renault could be the "laughing fourth" and I´m taking Trulli instead of Alonso because of the higher odds and .

Trulli also last year with a good performance - in qualifying he was one second behind, but the Renault wasn´t that strong at this time, and he was only 0.4 behind the third and in the race he was fifth and this was his third best result of the season (he was two times fourth).

The weather forecast isn´t too good for Renault/Michelin (30% rain probatility on Saturday and Sunday and quite cold)

Odds of 9.0 are definitely worth a try IMO


-----------------------


2. Trulli to win Fridays qualifying @26.0 with Centrebet - stake 0.058 units (to win 1.5)

You´ll see above, that I´ve liked Trulli yesterday for podium, BUT I like him even better for today.

I don´t want to repeat myself, but the advantage, that they have two additional hours in the private session, where they can prepare for the race, is important.
The other teams will use the one hour official training to do this (testing for the race and not qualifying I) and will use tommorrows training to find a good qualifying set-up - Renault can start with this today !!!

Trulli with an additional advantage - he can start as eight today and this is an advantage, because the track is said to be quite dirty, so the first drivers (his main opponents) could get problems and are acting as "vacuum cleaners"

The price here is excellent

3. Trulli to be 1-3 on Friday @5.0 with Fonbet - stake 0.1 units (to win 0.5)

4. Alonso to win Fridays qualifying @26.0 with Centrebet - stake 0.038 units (to win 1.0)

5. Alonso to be 1-3 on Friday @5.0 with Fonbet - stake 0.1 units (to win 0.5)

[KentBrockman]

[KentBrockman]

<<

2. Trulli to win Fridays qualifying @26.0 with Centrebet - stake 0.058 units (to win 1.5)

You´ll see above, that I´ve liked Trulli yesterday for podium, BUT I like him even better for today.

I don´t want to repeat myself, but the advantage, that they have two additional hours in the private session, where they can prepare for the race, is important.
The other teams will use the one hour official training to do this (testing for the race and not qualifying I) and will use tommorrows training to find a good qualifying set-up - Renault can start with this today !!!

Trulli with an additional advantage - he can start as eight today and this is an advantage, because the track is said to be quite dirty, so the first drivers (his main opponents) could get problems and are acting as "vacuum cleaners"

The price here is excellent

3. Trulli to be 1-3 on Friday @5.0 with Fonbet - stake 0.1 units (to win 0.5)

>>




easy winner, like expected [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[rocketman]

ARGH kicking myself I didnt check the forum yesterday as I usually do for the F1.
That was a fantastic call KB.
Congrats on the fantastic writeups - you really know your F1.