NASCAR - The Sirius Satellite Radio at The Glen @ WATKINS GLEN

Huckleberry · 08-06-2002, 08:19 PM

Last of the 2 road courses this week guys! There has already been some good discussion concerning this race at the tail end of the BRICKYARD thread for anyone interested in some good views.

While I believe it's very tough to bet a driver that is 3-1 or less to win a race, you have to believe that if Gordon is going to win any race this year, this has to be the one.

He looked to be dominant in the last road race at Sears Point until the dreaded rear-end gear busted (happened to more than one driver that weekend).

This is going to be a tough race to approach this weekend, as there really are only a few contenders for this one IMO. On top of that, their odds are all very low, so it might just have to be a Gordon bet only and hope that he ends this 29 race losing streak. I've seen no higher than 7-2 on him so far, with about 5 shops that have their numbers up.

Through INDIANAPOLIS:
ODDS TO WIN:
Winston Cup/To win the Pole: 0-7 -8 units
Busch Series/Week: 0-2 -3 units
Winston Cup/Week: 1-6 +32 units
Overall Year: 10-124 +91 units
MATCHUPS:
Winston Cup Qualifying: 8-2-1 +23.43 units
Busch Series/Week: 1-1 -0.9 units
Winston Cup/Week: 2-4 -9.25 units
Year: 76-58-1 +63.09 units

Total for the week: +34.28 units
Yearly Combined: +154.09 units

Huckleberry · 08-06-2002, 10:50 PM

Well guys, let's dig right in. I really think this is Jeff Gordon's race to win this week, but I'll throw up some drivers that could possibly get there as well. I don't believe this is a race to have 12-15 units out with 6-8 drivers, but rather 10 or so units w/ the bulk of the profit being made if the 24 wins. With that in mind, I have taken Alan's lead and placed 5 units on him at +350.

I really do not anticipate having any more than 3 or 4 drivers for this race, if even that. I sure don't need to deal with what almost happened at Sears Point earlier this year (Jerry Nadeau in the 44 w/ a 4 second lead with 3 laps to go).

But let's take a look at some guys who have had success both at Watkins Glen, and at Sears Point. Oh, and FWIW, even though Watkins Glen is a road course, the drivers have always said that the 2 tracks are completely different in terms of what it takes to successfully get around this track.

NOTE: I'll be referring to Sears Point (now Infineon Raceway) as SP and Watkins Glen as WG in the write-ups.

#1 S. PARK
I don't know if anyone else was surprised by Park's victory at this track in 2000, but I know I sure was. Park had never shown much success on road courses up to that point, but I have to include him this week due to the fact that he is in the elite class of being a past winner. In addition, his odds are currently 40-1 or so which sure seems like some decent value. Of course, Park is far removed from the driver he was (success wise) prior to his horrific accident last year, but I'm choosing to believe that is mostly due to some horrible racing luck. He was quite competetive last week which was nice to see after another nightmare wreck at Pocono the week before.
In addition, Park has been MUCH more successful at Watkins Glen than he has at Sears Point over the years. He has finished 10th, 1st, 12th and 18th his last 4 trips here, compared to finishes of 23rd, 40th, 17th and 42nd the last 4 at Sonoma. If I choose to add 3 or 4 other drivers along w/ the 24, I'll be thinking about the #1 car this week at that price.

#2 R. WALLACE
He almost stole all our Bill Elliott money last week with a VERY impressive run from 35th to 2nd at Indy. That was his 3rd 2nd place finish at the Brickyard 400 and he was visibly sick about it afterwards. However, it's a new week, and Rusty has the cabability of running very well this week. He's been very inconsistent at the road courses lately though, managing only a 5th place finish at SP in 2001 around finsihes of 27th (2002 SP), 43rd (2001 WG), 34th (2000 WG) and 26th (2000 SP) in the 4 others. But going back to 1999, Rusty was very impressive with finishes of 3rd that year, 4th in '98, and 3rd in 97 at WG. Therefore at odds of 12-1 or thereabouts, he's a no play for me at this point, but depending on how he looks in practices, I'll keep an eye on him for matchups.

GLTA

yomonte · 08-07-2002, 12:58 AM

Three pre qual race props I took at Aces
R Rudd ov 8.5 -120 2 units
Ricky has'nt finished ahead of his qual spot since before 1996 and continues to struggle week in and week out
B Elliott ov 12.5 -120 2 units
A great run for Bill lately, but another that doesn't finish well here even with a top ten starting spot. Starting fourth in 97 netted him with a seventh and was the only time he finished 12th or above since that time. Also an eighth in 99 where he finished 28th.
R Gordon ov 7.5 -120 2 units
Suprisingly he has finished fourth in two of his last three finishes here and one of those from a 42nd spot determined by owner pts. Just a gut feeling on this one.

Huckleberry · 08-07-2002, 05:16 PM

#6 M. MARTIN
If it wasn't for a certain #24 car, Martin could easily be the best road racer out there. He has shown amazing consistency over his career at both road racing events, and heads off to Watkins Glen trying to leapfrog the 2 guys he's chasing in the standings. It's more than possible for Mark Martin to be in the points lead come late Sunday afternoon. Out of the last 11 races at the road courses (6 at SP, and 5 at WG), Martin's worst finish has been a 15th. His average finish position at SP is 4.83 and at WG it is a little worse at 6.6. He should be a contender this week and will be one of the drivers I'll look to include. At 12-1 currently, I'll opt to wait, but will look to have the 6 in any and all matchups that do not take into account his amazing consistency as a road racer.

#8 D. EARNHARDT, JR.
Did Jr. make the race last week? Oh, that's right. I remember now. He went from leading to 32nd and was never heard from again. I have to say I was very surprised at this team's poor run last week, but I sure won't be if they do it for 2 weeks in a row. Jr. did run decently at SP earlier this year, but a late spin relegated him to a 30th place finish. To be honest, it seems as if the 8 has run much better at facilities they never used to run well at this year, so it would not surprise me to see Jr. muscle his way to a top 10 finish. WG is much more of a speed road course than SP is which suits Jr. just fine. I'm completely middle of the road as far as what I expect from him this weekend, but my first thought is to make him a play against until he proves otherwise.

#9 B. ELLIOTT
Ok. The winning streak stop here. Right? It just has to. However, he was awful competetive at SP this year which is a much more demanding race track than WG is as far as driver talent. However, "Awesome Bill" hasn't done anything here since 1997, when he came home 7th. I'm not about to go against someone with so much momentum right now, so I will most likely pass him over completely this week. But Bill is only 210 points out of the lead, and I'm sure they are going to do everything they can to secure a top 10 finish if at all possible.

GLTA

Huckleberry · 08-07-2002, 05:48 PM

#12 R. NEWMAN
I'm sure I wasn't the only one surprised to see Newman finish 9th at SP this year in his first Winston Cup road race. He qualified 17th, and showed great poise and patience the entire day, which bodes well for this week IMO. He came here to test a few weeks ago hoping to to gain that all valuable "seat time" and learn the differences between the two road courses. I will most likely treat him the same way I'll treat the 9 car this week, as I can see another top 10, or a mid pack 25th place finish.

#14 P.J. JONES
Son of the great Parnelli Jones, P.J. scored a ride this week due to his solid road racing experience. Oh, come on. Let's be honest. I'm including him here for the sole purpose to point out the he was responsible for taking the ride away from "Mr. Watkins Glen", Ron Fellows. Put his guy up with any other "hired gun" and he's an immediate bet against IMO.

#17 M. KENSETH
Here's another of the 2000 rookie class that hasn't quite mastered the road courses. With an average finish position of 25th in his 5 attempts at road racing, I will be looking to play against this team this week. Although he did muster up a 10th place finish here in 2000, I believe the success he's had this year will leave him matched-up with drivers who should have a much better chance at a decent finish than Kenseth. Then again, the first matchup I've seen (at sportsbook.com) has him against the 44 of Jerry Nadeau who is a -130 favorite. That may be a little much IMO (I mean it's Jerry Nadeau after all), but it's more than obvious that their nascar guy over there is far from impressed with Kenseth's road racing abilities.

#18 B. LABONTE
I just can't keep my word concerning this driver/team. They still haven't managed a top 10 finsih since their win at Martinsville (an amazing 13 races ago), but they did come from the rear again to finish a very respectable 11th for the 2nd consecutive week. With all the problems they have had this year, it seems as if they are running much better on tracks they aren't known for running well at, so I'm inclined to believe that they could possibly end that top 10 drought this week. Labonte fought his way to a 13th place finish at SP this year, and has a surprisingly decent avg. finish position over the last few years at the road courses. Including the finish this year, the 18 has a 7.6 avg. finish in his last five, so he could be a surprise this week IMO. A win is highly unlikely, but a top 10 is not. I'll look for some value with the 18 in matchups.

GLTA

Huckleberry · 08-07-2002, 07:23 PM

#20 T. STEWART
Here is basically the #2 choice this weekend behind the 24 car. Stewart is anywhere between 7-1 and 8-1 around, which makes playing him somewhat difficult if one chooses to play the 24 as well. While Stewart has been impressive at these venues since hitting the Winston Cup scene in 1999, I will have to hope for a poor qualifying run in order to play him. This however is going to be difficult, as the 20 has an average starting position of 4.42 over the 7 races of his road racing career. Therefore, I would suggest a play on the 20 before qualifying for anyone interested in playing him this weekend. I'm considering a race play on him over Dale Jarrett at -130 before qualifying.

#21 E. SADLER
No joke here, as Sadler could be a nice darkhorse pick to finish in the top 10 again at a road course. His finishes in the past have been quite horrible, but I liked what this team had to say about the new cars they built specifically for the road races. Sadler has a lot of confidence coming off this 6th place run at SP, and I'll have an eye on him as far as matchups go.

#24 J. GORDON
Mr. "3-1" heads off to New York this weekend in an attempt to end this "little" 29 race losing streak of his. While I didn't play the 24 at SP earlier this year, I've already played him this week, as he will win this race if they do not run into any problems. The main issue with playing a driver to win a Nascar race +350 or thereabouts, is that it doesn't leave much room to include any other potential winners without increasing the weekly outlay and thus lowering the profit margin. This is what I, and any other player choosing to include the 24, is going to have to face, and as I mentioned earlier, 24 may very well be the only play I make on this race.

#28 R. RUDD
Good old Ricky finally got himself a break this year when Nadeau broke down and gave him the win at Sears Point. That not only saved a few years off my life, but it re-established the fact that Rudd is a serious threat to win any road race he enters. He had always been a dark horse of sorts when he was running his 10 car, but ever since joining the 28 team in 2000, Rudd has managed a 1st, 4th, 4th, 11th, and 5th place finish at all the road races. However, I run into the same problem considering he is only 8-1 to win this race, so I will be concentrating on matchups this week with this team.

GLTA

Huckleberry · 08-07-2002, 08:24 PM

#29 K. HARVICK
Is anyone else really impressed with how this team is running? 5th, 6th, 9th, 1st, 11th the last 5 races, and I look for it to continute this week. Combining the recent solid runs with the fact that Harvick has been no slouch over his 3 road races in Cup (14th, 7th, 14th), he's one of my longshots this week if I choose to play more than just the 24. If not, he will surely be involved in matchups.

#31 R. GORDON
Ever since Robbie had a brain cramp and decided to race Harvick (who was a lap down at the time) while leading the SP race last year, everyone booking nascar has been enamored with this guy at the road courses. Funny thing is, he really hasn't performed up to those lofty expectations. However, he has run very well over his career in these events in less than adequate machines, and should not be counted out by any means. However, 8-1 is ridiculous IMO, so I will not be playing this team to win this weekend. Now if a 15-1 pops up, I may have to rethink this. In addition, if he gets way to much respect in matchups, I will not be afraid to take the generous plus money available on the other side.

#40 S. MARLIN
Well all Sterling Marling fans, this could easily be the week that his run at the top of the point standings comes to an end. As much as I do not want that to happen, if past history is any indication of upcoming performance, the 40 will have all kinds of problems holding on. You can only get as lucky has he did once this year, when all his nearest competitors fell victim to mechanical failures after he dropped out and finished dead last at Sears Point. I'll be on the sidelines hoping for a good finish this weekend or may look to play against him in the right matchups.

#41 or #42 J. SPENCER
Watch out for Kurt Busch "Mr. Excitement", errr "Mr. Has Been", errrr "Mr. Never Was". Seriously though, since Busch is running for points somewhat and Nascar has a close eye on him after that Daytona blow up, nothing will happen.....but I for one would like for Spencer to get his sooner or later for his nonsense.

GLTA

Edit: Not sure what car number Spencer is driving. Entry list says that Scott Pruett is in the 41 and Spencer in a new #42.

Huckleberry · 08-07-2002, 10:19 PM

#41 or #42 S. PRUETT
The only "hired gun" that I will be keeping an eye on this week is Scott Pruett, as he has proven himself in the past and is looking to improve on his 11th place finish in this team's 01 Dodge last year. Having a Ganassi/Sabates machine is only a good thing, so I will be looking to play him in the right spots, as he could easily put together a top 10 run this weekend. A more solid play however might be Pruett in qualifying, as he as posted starting positions of 8th, 11th, and 9th in three different rides. He didn't race at The Glen in 2000 due to the field being set by owner points.

#43 J. ANDRETTI
This is the last race of the year where I will actually be including not only one, but two Petty cars in write-ups. Looking over Andretti's finishes, there really isn't much to be that impressed about, but combining his great run at SP along with Nadeau's great run, leads me to believe they may have found something in order to be more competetive at these events. However, with WG being a less demanding track on drivers, I will tread litely.

#44 J. NADEAU
Talk about coming out of nowhere, Nadeau had the first road course race won this year before the "Nadeau Luck" bit him hard. I have very serious doubts that he can repeat that performance this week, but he does deserve a look based on his road racing experience. He managed a couple of top 10's with a 6th place run last year in the 25 Hendrick car, and a 5th place finish in the 9 car back in 1999.

#48 J. JOHNSON
This team is right on the heels of the 40 for the point lead heading into this weekend, and also managed the fastest lap around The Glen during testing a few weeks ago. That speed was very close to Jarrett's pole speed last year, and this type of road course will most likely suit Johnson much better than Sears Point. Having Jeff Gordon's rides and him there to bounce ideas off of can't hurt either. I will not be surprised with a solid run out of this team this week, and if 24 falls out, a win really isn't completely out of the question.

GLTA

hadenough · 08-07-2002, 11:33 PM

huck,,how can you say this?

Funny thing is, he really hasn't performed up to those lofty expectations. However, he has run very well over his career in these events in less than adequate machines, and should not be counted out by any means. However, 8-1 is ridiculous IMO, so I will not be playing this team to win this weekend

he would have won this race for fun last year if the nascar transponder did not set his car on fire....8/1 is fair value for him at this event

Hartley · 08-07-2002, 11:41 PM

Robby Gordon is a great road driver. I think his biggest problem this week will be his broken foot.

Huckleberry · 08-07-2002, 11:55 PM

Hadenough, it is my opinion that 8-1 is not fair value for someone that has won only 1 race in his Winston Cup career. Furthermore, that race wasn't even at a road course, and I have to take that into consideration when playing a driver at odds of 10-1 or less.

He is simply being given too much respect at this point due to the "should have" or "would have" won this or that race. When he does, then maybe 8 will be fair.

Hartley, I was thinking the same thing, but the more I read about the differences between Sears Point and Watkins Glen, the more I'm lead to believe that this will not be as bad as it seems for him. Still, witht that injury, he's still 8-1. Too low for me.

hadenough · 08-08-2002, 12:11 AM

Huck..again, I disagree....your position that he has only 1 win in Winston Cup is the basis for a "ridiculous" odds of 8/1...My question to you is,,,,,if this event is run 8 times,,,do you think he will win,,,or, does it have to be run 15 times as you suggest, for him to win???????

yomonte · 08-08-2002, 12:32 AM

Huck, Track speed is an average of twentyfive MPH faster at the Glen than at Sonoma. I used to use both when cappin', but don't anymore.

Trommel · 08-08-2002, 12:36 AM

Hey Huck,

If I might ask a stupid question...

Personally, I like the 6(Martin) a lot this weekend. You wrote

>At 12-1 currently, I'll opt to wait, but will look to have the 6 in any and all matchups that do not take into account his amazing consistency as a road racer.

By the way, I agree with waiting to play him and hope his price moves on qualifying. But, would you mind clarifying "matchups that do not take into account his amazing consistency as a road racer."? Are you saying you're looking to play Martin against the A-list guys who aren't as good at road tracks (40 pops immediately to mind). The thinking being that hopefully linemakers won't give Martin the respect he deserves and will underprice him vs other A-list guys? Thanks in advance for your help!

Huckleberry · 08-08-2002, 12:39 AM

All I stated or suggested was that it would take in the neighbourhood of 15-1 for me to play the 31 this week. You are more than welcome to play him at 8-1. I wish you and everyone else who plays him at that price all the luck in the world, because it's all about winning.

Edit: Typo

Huckleberry · 08-08-2002, 01:06 AM

Yo....I assume you are referring to the comment I made concerning the 48's test speed right? If so, I was comparing his test speed with Jarrett's pole speed last year at The Glen, not Sonoma. If you are referring to something else, I apologize, but I don't quite understand what you you mean.

Trommel.....no question is stupid. Believe that. In regards to your question, I was hoping that if I/we get lucky enough for Martin to qualify around the spot he did last year (15th), and either an A-list guy or road course expert kind of driver (with a decent ride) happens to be starting in the top 5, that we could see the 6 at or around +110 or more in a few matchups. At this point, the only driver I would not bet Martin against is the 24, but everyone else is fair game if the price is right. Also, I sure hope to see the 6 vs. 40 in a matchup, but I doubt we will get that lucky this week.

For instance, if Martin qualifies 15th for instance, and Jarrett 3rd, I would have no problem taking the 6 at + money in that matchup.

Hope that answers your question somewhat.

Alan · 08-08-2002, 01:14 AM

Huckleberry,

It is not hard for me to find ways to agree with someone with the record that Huckleberry has hung on this board. Having said that ---- Gordon is 3.5-1 because he has earned it and deserves those odds. When you have someone at 3-1 and will be lower if he qualifies well, the other drivers must be adjusted upward to have fair value --- I will use tiger and golf as an example ---- it took better than a year for els, lefty, duval, and the like to be hung at 12 to 15 to 1 when playing in a major ----- when one guy wins them all as the 24 does here, the others must have value ----- the 31 is a joke at 8-1

Hartley · 08-08-2002, 01:23 AM

The hold still works out the same as with other races.

For "value" check out drivers like Dale Earnhardt Jr, Sterling Marlin, Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Bobby Labonte, Ward Burton etc. These drivers are all substantially higher than they usually are in Winston Cup races. Is there "value" there? Have you seen these guys drive road courses before?

The truth is that if you like Robby Gordon then there may be value in him at 8-1. Rusty Wallace to me is great "value" at 8-1 on a short track but is horrible odds at 15-1 on the superspeedways because he has never won there in 22 years of racing.

The best "value" is on the driver that wins the race regardless of his odds and if you believe Robby Gordon is the best road racer out there then 8-1 is good odds. Personally, I still like Rudd and will likely grab him at whatever odds I can get.

Huckleberry · 08-08-2002, 01:37 AM

Point taken Harltley.

However, if I was betting every driver "I like" to win a race regardless of the odds offered, I would go broke fast. IMO, there has to be a combination between liking a driver to win and fair market value for the expectation that he may win. Are you telling me that you would bet Ricky Rudd at 4-1 if that was the price around just because you like him this weekend?

Also, I wouldn't be so quick to compare the likes of Marlin, Jr. and Kenseth w/ Labonte and Johnson. The 48 was running quite well at Sears Point, which is by far a more demanding track than Watkins Glen, before he broke down and finished 35th. And while the 18 has been just putrid this year, he has a very decent record at the road courses. These guys offer much more "value" at 30-1 or so than does Robby Gordon at 8-1.

That's what I love about gambling, and gambling on this sport. There is always room for a healthy debate. I like that.