dodge/savemart at sonoma

[caterpillar22]

the 2 gordons baby
24 - look for the 24 to turn this season around here. he has already moved up in the points and will start to win races after this point. winner of 3 of the past 4 races here. probably 3 to 1 or maybe worse though makes it hard to take him but dont let it scare u he is the best road racer in nascar.
31 - had this race won last year but a bullheaded harvick running a lap down cost him the win and handed it to tony stewart. tremendous road course racer and seems to be handling himself well this year.
6 - martin has always run well at road courses. better at watkins glen but has won here in the past and seems to be running better this year than the last couple years. need good odds on him though.
20 - winner of a couple road courses last 2 years and as said above stole this race last year. a car to watch on sunday. never get any kind of odds on him though.
2,28 - u can say the same for both of thes drivers. dominated road racing in late 80s and early 90s and god knows rudd can use a little luck lately. rusty seems to be struggling with handling lately and hasnt won a road or any other kind of race in a while. i think rudd will be a car to watch as well. 10 to 1 or better and i will take him most likely.
boris said, ron fellows- 2 guys that are road racing specialists and if their cars hold up or if they get a decent car in circuit for 1 week they are legitimate contenders. fellows probably the better of the 2 in my opinion.
48- who the hell knows the way he is running he could win the rest of em.
88 - not usually a road course man. no way will i bet him
99- has done a lot of practicing at road courses lately. could be a man to watch if he qualifies up front.

[jlpblade]

from Canbet

2002 Dodge / Save Mart 350

Andretti John +4500
Burton Jeff +2000
Burton Ward +3500
Busch Kurt +3500
Craven Ricky +5000
Earnhardt Dale Jr +2000
Elliott Bill +4500
Fellows Ron +900
Gordon Jeff +300
Gordon Robby +800
Hamilton Bobby Sr +6500
Harvick Kevin +4000
Jarrett Dale +1600
Johnson Jimmie +1600
Kenseth Matt +2500
LaBonte Bobby +1800
LaBonte Terry +4500
Marlin Sterling +2000
Martin Mark +900
Nadeau Jerry +3500
Nemecheck Joe +7500
Newman Ryan +2500
Park Steve +4000
Rudd Ricky +900
Schrader Ken +7500
Spencer Jimmy +4500
Stewart Tony +550
Wallace Rusty +1000
Waltrip Michael +4500
Field (All Others) +2000

[Hartley]

FWIW, In the races Jimmie Johnson ran in Busch at Watkins Glen, he absolutely sucked. My guess is that Jeff will go wire to wire in this one.

[Huckleberry]

Race 16 out of 36
at Sears Point Raceway - 2 mile Road Course - 112 laps for 350 Kilometers (224 miles) (Conflicting reports on nascar.com with this information though. Check it out for yourselves.)

Sears Point

<u>This Week's Schedule:</u> (All times Eastern)
Friday, June 21st
1:20 p.m. Winston Cup 1st Practice
5:05 p.m. Winston Cup Bud Pole Qualifying

Saturday, June 22nd
12:30 p.m. Winston Cup 2nd Practice
2:15 p.m. Winston Cup Happy Hour Practice

Sunday, June 23rd
3 p.m. Start of The Dodge/Save Mart 350

The first of two road course events is in store this week. While one name immediately comes to mind when thinking road courses, there are always other drivers to consider, especially the "hired guns" as they are called. There is also something else to deal with this weekend though, and that is the massive upgrade made to this facility since the Winston Cup boys visited last year. Gone is the "Gilligan's Island" second pit road, meaning there will finally be one pit road here. In addition to that, the track has made "improvements" hoping for a much more competetive race, including some different turn characteristics and some longer straightaways. Make sure you read up as much as you can and take that into account when finalizing your wagering for this weekend.

The early drivers to watch:
2 R. Wallace -
Well, Rusty did it again. A no-nonsense top-10 finish at Michigan last week. Rusty has had his ups and downs at Sears Point and Watkins Glen, but should be of one the few drivers to consider when betting the winner here. Should be a much better play in matchups though.
6 M. Martin -
This team keeps on rolling right along, erasing all the talk that Martin was all done after last year's poor performance. Martin is one of the very few drivers to beat the 24 here, and should definately be a factor this week.
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. -
Junior has never had much success at Sears Point, and the way this team is struggling right now, there is no reason to think they will have a great finish this week. I will look to play against him in the right matchups.
9 B. Elliott -
Bill had a great run for the first half of last week's race until a bad call with gas mileage set him back. Elliott won a road course before (Riverside) but should not be much of a factor as far as winning this one. If someone doesn't take how this team is performing this year into consideration and matches him up with the wrong driver, I will not be afraid to bet him.
12 R. Newman -
YEAH! YIPPEE! They finally put an entire race together! We all knew they could do it. To bad they take that momentum to a track that Newman has never raced at. He should not finish this race in the top 10. Top 20 would be an accomplishment IMO.
17 M. Kenseth -
Barring those 2 horrible finishes, 17 could easily be leading the points right now. He, like many of these drivers, has not been impressive at all at the road courses, but could be someone to watch this weekend. A pit crew like that can REALLY make up a lot of spots at a track that has so little passing opportunities. I will have my eye on him for matchups.
18 B. Labonte -
I bet this team wishes it was November right about now. Halfway through last week's race, crew chief Jimmy Makar and Labonte decided to treat the race as a test session. Nice! He has some decent finishes here though, but it's tough to bet a team that can't seem to do any better than a top 30.
20 T. Stewart -
I'm sure everyone remembers how the 20 won this race last year....but that wasn't a fluke, and Stewart is one of the drivers that will contend for this win. As with most of the contenders though, his odds are pretty weak right now.
24 J. Gordon -
Well...no COPY AND PASTE this week, because this team will finally hit victory lane this week. That's right. I'm going out on a limb, but for some reason, I firmly believe that they can win. Seriously though, at odds of 5-2 or less, his is pretty much unbettable, but without any complication, 24 wins this for fun.
28 R. Rudd -
It was nice for Ricky not to win last week...at least I know it's not me cursing him. But, as he and this team has done for the better part of the year, they were right there in the top 10 all day contending. Rudd has always had good success at the road courses, and is another driver who could possibly take the win away from the 24.
31 R. Gordon -
For the first time this year, Robby hits the "drivers to watch" page. And for good reason. Ignoring Gordon's really fluky cockpit fire last year (Nascar's telemetry unit) that relegated him to a 40th place finish at Watkins Glen, he really has been ( I can't believe I'm using this word to describe Robby Gordon's performance) dominant at road courses in his short career. He will contend this week.
40 S. Marlin -
Sterling is praying that he can finish in the top 10 somehow and not lose too many of his 110 point lead. That will be an accomplishment. They were surprisingly poor last week at a track that gave them a win last year. Sterling does have a 2nd place finish at Sears Point a couple of years ago, so there is some ray of hope for them this week.
48 J. Johnson -
That's it. Nothing will surprise me concerning this team the rest of year....Okay! Maybe one last thing. If Johnson can drive this car to a top 5 this weekend, then we all really know that he will contend for the title all year long. He tested here and was very happy, so that can only give him and edge considering the track has changed somewhat. I will leave him out of my win set, but will actually consider him in the right matchup.
67 B. Said -
One of the two road course specialists, Said is driving the backup car in the Jasper Motorsports stable. He always used to replace Pressley in the 77 car, but with Blaney on board this year, the team chose to field a second car. He is either 40th or 10th, so it's tough to figure out what he's going to do this week, and if the rumor that this little change in track configuration takes the huge edge that road course experts have, then it's tough to imagine that he can contend for the win. I will most likely leave him out altogether.
87 R. Fellows -
And here is arguably the "best" of all the "hired guns." Fellows has actually won when entered in a Nascar road course event (Busch Series), but he is also feast or famine. He is driving Joe Nemechek's car, and will be there if that car holds up. Unfortunately, it doesn't. If anyone is intested in betting Fellows to win, I would do it before qualifying, because a top 10 starting stop is more than likely.
88 D. Jarrett -
They are really looking better and better every week. Those 4 tires at the end made the finish a ton more exciting than it would have been, and Jarrett is no slouch at the road courses. He did not have good finishes last year, but the way this team is clicking right now, I will be taking a hard look at him.
97 K. Busch -
I just don't see it. If Busch finishes in the top 10, I will most likely have a bad day. While I do not underestimate this kid's talent, I simply don't see a top 20 at the road courses yet.
99 J. Burton -
Kind of a surprise lately at both Sears Point and Watkins Glen. (FWIW..I mention Watkins Glen a lot, even though the two tracks are drastically different road courses..at least before this year they have been. But while I don't take too much stock in Watkins results when capping Sears Point, I don't throw 'em completely out either). 99 has a 2nd and 9th place finsih here the last two trips, and will be one of the guys I look at for sure.

Well, this is basically 24's race to win or lose. There are a small handfull of other drivers that can give him a headahe, but it really is going to be tough to beat him the way he and his team are running this year. This will most likely be the week to focus much more on matchups than the index, unless qualifying results give me the value I'm looking for.

Any input and opinions?
GLTA

[caterpillar22]

i am seriously considering j burton at 20 to 1. like u said he has had some decent finishes lately at road courses and i have read that he has done some serious practicing on road courses lately. one of them in va. where some others have tested recently. other than that i am looking at r gordon and j gordon to win this with a possible bet on m martin.

[caterpillar22]

took 2 drivers early
2.5* r gordon 6 to 1
1* j burton 20 to 1

[caterpillar22]

by the way huck both of those bets were on purpose.
(ha ha) might should acc. bet somebody though

[Huckleberry]

Come on Cat....can't you find one guy to bet by misatke? That worked out way to good last week! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

I am staying away from betting any drivers to win as the odds are really tragic everywhere I've seen. I know Robby Gordon has been real good at the roads, but 6-1? It is still Robby Gordon after all. I just have to get at least 10-1 to pull the trigger, and this change in configuration has we bothered somewhat.

BTW: Here is some updated info on the track and the length of the race in case anyone cares.

DISTANCE CHANGES
NASCAR says this Sunday's Dodge/Save Mart 350 Winston Cup race will be contested over 110 laps or 218.9 miles instead of the 112 laps and 224 miles previously announced as the race distance. No explanation of the change was announced, but 218.9 miles converts to just over 350 kilometers.

[caterpillar22]

that is all i am betting this week, took j burton as a long shot because i talked about him a couple weeks ago and then i read where he had been practicing at road courses and he has ran well before so i didnt want to regret it. my brother has talked about nothing but robby gordon for a month here at this track so that is what im going with other than 4 or 5 mups if i find good ones.

[caterpillar22]

an article at thatsracin.com and nascar.com had robby gordon quoted as saying anything short of a win and he would be disappointed leaving this race. also said he had waited 364 days for this race and a chance at redemption. huck i know it is robby gordon but if he could drive that piece of junk 7 car he drove last year this car should be better and he has matured somewhat even some of the announcers and other drivers have said this he should have a real good shot at the victory on sunday. he was also 5th fastest in practice earlier. of course newman is once again the fastest cat in town for 1 lap.

[caterpillar22]

my opinion on newman
once they get all the cars on the track for the race and 1 or 2 get around him i think the traffic will get him and he will start to fall back. horsepower gets u nowhere at this race. what do u think huck.

[Huckleberry]

All tremendous points Cat. 31 should be heard from and there is no doubt about that.......I just hope that I can find double digits. He was a little disappointing ( I know 9th is pretty good, but I was looking for a top 5 or 3) in qualifying, so let's hope the books who don't read any of this and hang +1000 or higher.

And you are dead on w/ the 12 IMO. That fast lap in practice was a shock, but he did say he was following Fellows when he pulled it off. He should not finish in the top 20 with all those cars around him. I was very impressed w/ all the Roush cars today (how can you not be, right?). Like I said about the 17, I really think he is someone to watch. And I'm not backing off the 97.....sure, he pulled of a screamer in Q, but I see his fate like the 12's. I'm going to look and take all the value I can against the 97 in matchups. Could be a disaster of course, but I will take my chances.

Oh, BTW.
For anyone who either bet ON or AGAINST Dale Jarrett in the 88, he DID NOT make a qualifying attempt, so all wagers should be refunded.

[Huckleberry]

Well.....I found +1000 or higher on the 31, so it's time to back up the talk. Also on a few other guys that I really think offer some value, and I doubt I'll see any better anywhere else. If so, might add some more. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]
Matchups as well. It's early, but I think we all know who is going to be good and who is not. HH should not be a surprise I don't think. I'm playing one favorite for a break even more or less, and covering myself with just one "road course warrior", and another guy that could possibly get there. That means that I have to leave out someone, and unfortunately, that has to be the 24. That's tough to swallow, but unless better than 4-1 pops up, I just can't do it. Let's hope he gets his top 3 and is happy with that.

ODDS TO WIN
31 R. Gordon +1100 3 units
28 R. Rudd +1400 2 units
6 M. Martin +1400 2 units
87 R. Fellows +2200 0.8 units
2 R. Wallace +1400 1 unit
20 T. Stewart +400 3.5 units
12.3 units in.

MATCHUPS
31 ov 97 -139 5 units
88 ov 8 +135 4 units
28 ov 48 -135 5 units

Stepping it up this week, as I see some fantastic value with these prices. Be back tomorrow once others come up.

GLTA.

[caterpillar22]

huck did you ever hear anything about robby gordon's problems? whether he got them fixed or not?

[Huckleberry]

Haven't heard an update on that, but he didn't say anything about it when commenting on his practice. He should be okay.........let's hope so at least. Let us know if you hear anything, and I'll do the same.

[caterpillar22]

reason i asked i added another unit on him to win at 8 to 1
also added 1.5 units on martin at 12 to 1

[caterpillar22]

by the way huck u forgot j gordon in ur win set there. im going to lay low i think on win bets this week because he can screw me over and hard to profit at 3 or 4 to 1. if i add another i might put 3* on him just to cover or stewart. this is one track u can look at 1 lap speeds in happy hour to judge a car cause if they cant run 1 lap they cant run 100. gl everybody

[jlpblade]

check pinnacle

[Huckleberry]

I'm bitting the bullet and leaving out the 24 car. I already effed up by pulling the trigger too early on the 20......can get +600 right now on him.....as a matter of fact, I rounded up my win units to an even lucky 13 with an additional 0.7 units on the 20 at +600.
In the middle of the week, I never thought I would be in for 13 units, but WIT really threw a wrench in those plans.

So a total of 4.2 units on the 20 to win 18.2 units. Sure hope 24 extends that little winless streak of his.

Also bet another matchup:

10 ov 41 -120 4 units