Who will win pocono

caterpillar22 · 06-04-2002, 11:09 PM

for me i like the 28, 88, 40 , 19 and 9
28 loves this track won here last year over teammate jarrett
88 always runs well here and maybe coming around as of late
40 he ran well at this track even when he was driving junk(like the 94 car years ago)
19 well he cant run many other places but he can here, also 19 had a good run here last year so that car knows this track as well. i wouldnt play him if he qualifies bad though he is unpredictable
9 well he has always ran well here and he seems to throw in a good run from time to time this year.
maybe he is hungry again.
other contenders to consider are the 8, 2, 18, 6, 97 and the 20, of course the 24, and 48 also but the first three i mentioned are my favorites at this moment.

snowman · 06-04-2002, 11:57 PM

88 is having a tough year, 28 seems to have problems when he is winning or close. 48 is hot as hell, but i am looking at the 20,or maybe 24 to get his first win. i also like the 17, he seems to have the best pit crew as of right now.

caterpillar22 · 06-05-2002, 10:57 PM

snowman u are correct with those 2. the 48 though the only thing is that rookies dont traditionally do well here for some reason. i guess it is the fact that busch series doesnt run here so lack of exp. hurts them. but if he keeps getting some of gordons old cars he might have the setup already and fly again.

Huckleberry · 06-06-2002, 01:02 AM

Through DOVER: [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-sad.gif[/img]
ODDS TO WIN:
Winston Cup/Week: 0-4 -9 units
Overall Year: 4-53 +37.5 units
MATCHUPS:
Winston Cup/Week: 3-5 -15.7 units
Year: 32-30 +11.38 units

Total for the week: -24.7 units
Yearly Combined: +48.88 units

Race 14 out of 36
at Pocono Raceway - 2.5 mile Tri-Oval - 200 laps for 500 miles

<u>This Week's Schedule:</u> (All times Eastern)
Friday, June 7th
11:20 a.m. Winston Cup 1st Practice
3:05 p.m. Winston Cup Bud Pole Qualifying

Saturday, June 8th
9:30 a.m. Winston Cup 2nd Practice
11:15 a.m. Winston Cup Happy Hour Practice

Sunday, June 9th
1 p.m. Start of the POCONO 500

Welcome to Pocono Raceway, where the one-engine rule should get it's stiffest test of the year. While it is 100 miles shorter than the 600 at Charlotte, Pocono's odd triangle configuration means huge straightaways, and turns that require downshifting. Historically, only a handfull of drivers have won at Pocono, so that's who I will be looking at this week. With SOME luck, I should get back into victory lane.

The early drivers to watch:
2 R. Wallace -
It's here Rusty. Pocono. You should be pumped. However, your recent performances may lead me to completely overlook you. But I won't. What I will do is hope you qualify in the 20's so I can take some value with you. Currently, your odds of +1200 are not worth a play.
6 M. Martin -
Could Mark have won 2 in a row? It sure would have been nice to find out, but the bad luck bug bit hard while he was leading by over 4 seconds. Regardless, Martin will be heard from again and should contend for the checkers baring anything silly happening again. With his propensity to qualify in the top 5 here, I've already played him at +1500.
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. -
What in the world is going on with this team? It's one thing to finish poorly to due some bad race luck, but they are simply not contending at all anywhere they run recently. Jr. had two great runs here last year, so I have to think he will be there this week, but I just can't make a play on him at the odds that are out there. I would think long and hard if +1300 was available though.
9 B. Elliott -
Hey, maybe it if were the MBNA 402, Bill could have won it. He was coming on strong at the end (albeit because 48 was not running as hard I believe), and should be one of the nice long shots for this week. I've seen as high as +3500 on Bill, which really offers some nice value. I haven't played him yet, but am really considering it due to his decent qualifying runs at this track and overall this year.
12 R. Newman -
Well, last week showed what this car/driver can do if it lasts the entire race. I make him a favorite not to last this race, but if by chance the engine lasts, Newman might be worth a look. This team took Mayfield to 2 wins here, so that can only help.
17 M. Kenseth -
It finally happened for this team. A horrible finish dropping him from 2nd to 4th in the overall standings. While a ton of other drivers have fared much better here than Kenseth, I can easily see the 17 contending for this one. Let's just hope he qualifies like he has in the past here.
18 B. Labonte -
Another struggling team returns to a track that has given them a lot of success. The 18 has 3 wins here in the last 6 races, so we have to take a look at him. Anything less than +1500 is simply not going to do it though.
20 T. Stewart -
Much like many tracks that this team goes to around this time of year, you see real good finishes. The 20 is currently favored to win along with the 24, and while he should bounce back after a horrible Dover race last week (for this team), +600 is not nearly enough.
24 J. Gordon -
Is this the week? Is it? Okay...let me play the recording: "Gordon and his team are too good not to win a race soon. He's had great success at (insert track here), so don't be surprised to finally see him in victory lane again." Copy and paste that for next week's write-up.
28 R. Rudd -
Well, this team almost gave me a coronary last week. At least he was there and was contending, so it wasn't all that bad a selection. And to one's surprise I'm sure, I'm on him again this week. Without any bad luck or stupid mistakes in the pits, he should be the one at +600. So +1100 is a play.
40 S. Marlin -
I don't know how much longer Sterling can keep running this way and hold on to his point lead. Sure Terry Labonte won the title doing the same thing in 1996, but the 40 has to start contending for wins again soon. Much like Dover, Marlin never amounted to much at Pocono until last year, so let's keep an eye on him this week. I've seen as high as +1500 which isn't bad.
48 J. Johnson -
It really is amazing what great equipment can do for anyone. Now, I'm not saying that Steve Grissom could jump into this car and do what Johnson is, but using Gordon's old chassis' sure doesn't hurt. They put it all together last week and have to be considered at each track from now on no matter whether JJ has run there in the past or not. I've seen as low at +600 on him, which is pretty ridiculous, but did find him (I don't know how) part of the field at +2000, so I pulled the trigger for a small play just in case they decide to remind us of their part owner of 4 years ago.
88 D. Jarrett -
Did they turn the corner last week? If so, then they come to a track that could easily give them a win. Jarrett has a ridiculous 5 straight top 3 finishes in this race (including one 2nd place finish) and prior to the 2nd Pocono race of 2001, had amassed 9 straight top 5's. I'm really considering playing him before qualifying because he should start in the top 10.
97 K. Busch -
Busch showed us a lot coming from 2 laps down to finish where he did. Keep an eye on the 97 this week. He's definitely on my list.
99 J. Burton -
I simply have no clue what this team is going to do from week to week, and his results at this track doesn't change that for me at all. He could win or finish 38th. Hard to bet into that.

Well, I'm on the 28 and the 6 again. I know it's like a broken record, but their current form and finishes at these venues make them a must play for me. I'm looking seriously at the 88 as my 3rd pre-qualifying wager as well.
I also left out some past Pocono winners like Mayfield, but I just don't see him having any confidence right now. I may change my mind after practices, but I doubt it.
Also, even though I don't change the write-up on the 24, I really think this is his best chance at a win so far this year. We all know that he has been very consistent this year, but he is now starting to run in the top 5 more and more which means that a win is around the corner.

Any input and opinions?
GLTA

Huckleberry · 06-06-2002, 02:24 AM

Starting off somewhat easy.

ODDS TO WIN:
28 R. Rudd +1100 2 units
6 M. Martin +1500 1.5 units
88 D. Jarrett +1300 1 units
48 J. Johnson (part of Field Bet) +2000 0.5 units

caterpillar22 · 06-06-2002, 02:35 AM

huck glad to see ur on the 12 i came back down after doing some thinking on that one and decided i would bet him and rudd early since im pretty sure they will qualify well. really lilke the 9 as a long shot as well. i know i said rookies dont generally do well here. but he is no normal rookie(12 car) as well as the 48. so i lthink he is worth a play.

jlpblade · 06-07-2002, 03:42 AM

Pocono 500 Odds to win the Pole:
M. Martin +1800 0.05-0.90

Qualifying Matchups Pocono 500:
J. Andretti -138 vs B. Hamilton 0.50-0.36

caterpillar22 · 06-07-2002, 09:01 PM

this is what i played before qual.
2.5* rrudd 10 to 1
1 * newman 20 to 1

Huckleberry · 06-09-2002, 12:56 AM

Wow...I haven't seen prices like this in a long time. Without discipline, I could end up with 10 drivers here. Hell, even w/ some discipline, I may end up with 10.

40 at +1500? 97 at +2500? 9 at +4500? 8 at +1800? 12 at +2500? 20 at +1100? I guess a lot of these places are banking on 24 finally winning.

Anyhow, I must add a few plays.

ODDS TO WIN
9 Elliott +4500 .3 units
97 Busch +2500 1 unit
40 Marlin +1500 .7 units

I'm stuck between the 8 and the 20.

Back later.

Total Square · 06-09-2002, 01:39 AM

would i be far off if i say that #8 is the most over rated driver on the board?

SwampHog · 06-09-2002, 01:54 AM

Great write-up Huckleberry

jlpblade · 06-09-2002, 04:03 AM

Pocono 500

J. Gordon +650 0.50-3.25
Rudd +1000 0.35-3.50
Martin +1100 0.30-3.30
Stewart +1100 0.30-3.30
Jarrett +1300 0.25-3.25
Johnson +900 0.20-1.80

Jarrett -135 v J Burton 0.675-0.50
Martin -140 v DE2 0.70-0.50
Johnson -134 v Kenseth 0.67-0.50
Rudd -161 v R Wallace 0.805-0.50

Huckleberry · 06-09-2002, 05:00 AM

TS......I don't know if he's "overrated" per say......he's by far the most popular, and is taking his lumps the last few races. That's for sure. But he has a ton of talent and winning races, or even just finishing well, is really about the entire team putting it all together.

Jr's team will turn it around (probably around early July [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] ).

Thanks a lot Swamphog..........what do you think about the race? The veteran drivers should really shine. At least I'm hoping so. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

The 24 car should be the biggest problem tommorrow IMO.

jjgold · 06-09-2002, 11:43 AM

Pocono 500 June 7 - 9, 2002 - Highest finishing group

D Earnhardth Jr D Jarrett R Wallace 4 to 1

jjgold · 06-09-2002, 11:44 AM

Pocono 500 June 7 - 9, 2002 - Manufacturer to win the race

Ford 8-5

jjgold · 06-09-2002, 11:45 AM

Dale Earnhardt Jr 10 to 1 To win Race

caterpillar22 · 06-09-2002, 12:03 PM

good write up huck. u are right about the 24 hurting u. but i hope his bad luck cont. for 1 more race.
here is what im playing
2.5* rrudd 10 to 1
1* newman 20 to 1
1* elliott 30 to 1
1.5* k busch 17 to 1
2* 88 over 18 -120
3* 97 over 18 -115
2*6 over 17 -120

caterpillar22 · 06-09-2002, 12:11 PM

im gonna take 1 more 2 win. either 24, 88 or the 6. who would u take huck out of those 3.
im only taking 1 because i think this could be one of those races where somebody comes out of the]
blue and wins. i didnt like taking 2 mups against the 18 but i think those 2 he is matched up against
will contend for the win today.

Huckleberry · 06-09-2002, 02:12 PM

Wow Cat....that's a tough question. I've already mentioned how much 24 reallly worries me today.....more so than any other race. Jarrett is simply so damn good here it's unreal, just like the 6 car. But looking at the practice sheets let's go with the 6.

Again, you just CAN'T handicap breakdowns and accidents........so that's why I would lean to betting Mark Martin if you were to add one more guy. He's been so good recently, has an incredible record here, and I've seen 12-1 still available on him.

And BTW....I'm having a real tough time w/ matchups this week. Everyone I like seems to be matched up against guys who have either run real well at Pocono in the past, (like your anti-Labonte plays) or guys who are running sooo good right now and matched up against yoyo guys (up and down).

I did find one I liked a lot. It's a trap, and I'm convinced of it, but I bit.

MATCHUPS
26 T. Bodine ov 11 B. Bodine -130 4 units

Be back later.