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NASCAR - MBNA Platinum 400 at DOVER DOWNS
First a little order of business.
ODDS TO WIN:
Winston Cup/Week: 1-9 +56.5 units
Overall Year: 4-49 +46.5 units
Winston Cup/Week: 3-3 -0.9
Year: 29-25 +27.08 units
Total for the week: +55.60 units
Yearly Combined: +73.58 units
Now let's get to this week's race.
Race 13 out of 36
at Dover International Speeday - 1 mile Oval - 400 laps for 400 miles
<u>This Week's Schedule:</u> (All times Eastern)
Friday, May 31st
10:05 a.m. Winston Cup 1st Practice
1:35 p.m. Winston Cup Bud Pole Qualifying
Saturday, June 1st
9:30 a.m. Winston Cup 2nd Practice
11:15 a.m. Winston Cup Happy Hour Practice
Sunday, June 2nd
1 p.m. Start of the MBNA Platinum 400
This is a full weekend at Dover with both the Trucks and Busch series racing as well, so will all those practice sessions and qualifying, the times above may change.
It's time to head to "The Monster Mile", where I will be hard pressed to repeat last week's success. There are basically only 5 drivers/teams that should win this upcoming race meaning that value won't be easy to find. I will most likely be quite cautious, as this track can be very dangerous in terms of tight racing conditions and probably the toughest pit road entrance in the circuit. Nevertheless, let's take a look at the contenders, and you'll notice that I included a few guys that rarely get a mention.
The early drivers to watch:
2 R. Wallace -
It's not Pocono yet Rusty. Keep waiting.
6 M. Martin -
After last week's tremendous effort, it won't be easy to win another so soon. However, Martin has had great success here, and should be an easy top 10. Seen 12-1 out there, so I'm really debating this one.
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. -
Another really tough race for Dale, Jr. Even though he's as up and down as they come and quite difficult to gauge, I'm not going out on a limb by saying that this should be an "up" week. A serious threat to win this race, but odds in the range of 5-7 to 1, it seems too risky to include him with all the bad luck that surrounds him at this time.
10 J. Nadeau -
Very rarely do I spend any time talking about this team or driver, however, there are some things to look at this week. Nadeau, still subbing for the injured Johnny Benson, had a very nice 2nd place run in the 25 car in last year's fall race. That combined with a nice run this 10 team threw up in the fall race of 2000, and I'll take a look at 'em. We are talking nothing less than 50-1 here, but I'll be watching this team.
12 R. Newman -
Everyone pretty much knew it would happen, and it did. I don't know if it's Ryan abusing these engines so much, but this is pretty ridiculous. Then again, Mayfield blew up a lot also. Hey Roger.....nice win at Indy, but can you help out a little more in the engine department of your 12 team please? I would be very surprised to see this car in the top 10 at the end of the day, however, he will (again!) be a threat for the pole.
17 M. Kenseth -
Same 'ole for this team........consistency and more consistency. Kenseth had a great start to his career at Dover, but he took a step back last year with finishes of 29th and 16th. He's one of my top 5 guys to win this race, as 2002 is obvioulsy very different than 2001 for this entire team. BTW, this pit crew is responsible for at least 70% of this team's success this year. Those guys are just unreal.
18 B. Labonte -
More problems for this team last week. Luckily, I wagered him against a team (88) that is having more problems than he is right now. Labonte used to be a lock top 5 at Dover, but it's not easy to back this team right now. 15-1 is interesting and demands a look, but we'll have to see. 20-1 and he's a bet.
20 T. Stewart -
Here is "Mr. Dover Downs". He has absolutely owned this track like no other since he hit Winston Cup in 1999. He'll be tough to leave out even at 9-2 or 5-1 odds.
24 J. Gordon -
Is this the week? Is it? Okay...let me play the recording: "Gordon and his team are too good not to win a race soon. He's had great success at (insert track here), so don't be surprised to finally see him in victory lane again." Copy and paste that for next week's write-up. This team is among the 5 that can win however.
25 J. Nemechek -
"Front Row" Joe interests me the most out of any longshot/total darkhorse candidate. Three staight top 10 finsished in the 33 car at Dover. This team is in disarray however, so it's another one of those 40-1 or nothing guys.
28 R. Rudd -
Here is my pick for this race. Hands down, he offers the best value out there. After I'm finished with this write-up, I will play him. He will qualify in the top 10, so I'll take the price now. He combines solid finishes at Dover with great form, so he will win a race very soon. This is as good a track as any for him to win at.
32 R. Craven -
Another guy out there we have to look at price wise. This team is running much better this year than they have in a long time, and Craven kind of likes these types of tracks. 40-1 would be very interesting.
40 S. Marlin -
Sterling came out of nowhere last year to post finishes of 8th and 6th at Dover. I see him continuing what he is doing right now, and being happy with his top 10.
48 J. Johnson -
Wow! What a car this kid had last week! But that's what a little mistake at this level can cost you. I honestly have no idea what Jimmy and this team can accomplish here. His Busch finishes were mediocre (as his Busch career was overall), so there is no indication there. Any finish, whether it be a top 5 or top 30, will not surprise me.
88 D. Jarrett -
More problems last week for the 88 team. They worked their way up to 12th at one point with a car that Parrott said was changed every way possible during the race. A lot of great finishes at Dover for Jarrett, but with all these chassis issues they are having, I just can't include him unless I hear/read something positive.
97 K. Busch -
One more great run by this kid last week, but he comes to a track that ate him up last year. I don't expect him to contend for the win, but I do expect him to drasctically improve on this 41st and 39th place finishes in 2000.
99 J. Burton -
I was way off on this team/car last week. A complete no show. This team now heads to a track that has given them a lot of problems over the last 4 races. I just don't see that improving this week.
Wrapping up, it's all about the 28 and the 20 for me, along with possibly including some value longshots.
Any input and opinions?
rudd for me has always been a money-burner. he will look great during the week, race competively, and then something always seems to happen to him. maybe he doesn't have the killer instinct, maybe he is just cursed. maybe this will be the week that changes [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img] i do like him in the matchup vs his teammate though given the dismal state of the 88.
Out of all those "maybes", I'm rooting for the last one to happen [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]. I'm down on the 28 and I agree that 28 ov 88 looks like a decent play.
ODDS TO WIN:
28 R. Rudd +1200 2.5 units
Thanks JJ......I hope everyone finds it somewhat informative.
One question. Your last play there, the "MBNA Platinum 400 May 31 - June 2, 2002 - Highest finishing group" "D Earnhardt Jr M Kenseth J Nadeau 3 to 1". I assume this is w/ Spiro, but I do have a question.
How do you win? Does one of those 3 drivers have to beat all the other drivers that OLY has in their other group bets? Excuse my ignorance there. Help me.
In the meantime, I've jumped off the fence and had to get some 6 car. That damn article on nascar.com put me over the edge. I hate when I read those things when I'm so indecisive. Anyhow, +1500 is the wrong price IMO.
ODDS TO WIN:
28 R. Rudd +1200 2.5 units
6 M. Martin +1500 1.5 units
MBNA Platinum 400 Qualifying Matchups:
R. Wallace -143 vs T. Stewart 0.286-0.20
R. Rudd +122 vs B. Labonte 0.20-0.244
J. Mayfield +122 vs K. Busch 0.20-0.244
S. Marlin +122 vs J. Spencer 0.20-0.244
W. Burton -103 vs M. Waltrip 0.206-0.20
MBNA Platinum 400 to win the Pole:
R. Wallace 9 to 1 Risking 0.10 To Win 0.90
M. Martin 18 to 1 Risking 0.05 To Win 0.90
Let's take a shot. Newman won the pole in the Busch series here last fall, and has been fast for ONE/TWO laps all year. In addition, this team (w/ Mayfield) has gotten around this track real well in qualifying trim in the past (7th, [24th but it was set on pts due to rain and was 2nd fastest in practice BEFORE qualifying], 1st, 5th, 4th, and 9th) 6 races. Let's give it a whirl.
ODDS TO WIN THE POLE:
12 R. Newman +1000 1 unit
huck great writeup. i only took one car before qualifying
craven 20 to 1
i also like the 20, 28, and the 6. other than that i dont like nobody else
unless gordon can cure his problems. and it looks like he is working on it.
he loves this place.
Well Cat, I'm sure you are hating yourself now. But FWIW, he has won from the back, and so have a few others this year. His car is real good. He'll simply have to make sure he doesn't get caught up in someone else's mess.
Ricky Rudd is now on the pole, as the top 3 cars on the inside line starting the race are all going to the REAR of the field for various reasons.
17 Kenseth: Engine switch
10 Nadeau: HH wreck
97 Busch: Back up car also.
yeah but u know he started at the back at atlanta and almost won that. sterling started last at darl. and did win. he also gets first pit box and with the best pit crew out there if he gets a couple of early cautiions they will make up a lot of spots for him.
took rudd at 9 to1 for 2*
gonna take 1 more either rusty, w burton, or t stewart dont know yet be back in the morning tolet u know which way i go. well good luck
Plays are being made as I write......just wanted to let you guys know in case there is interest.
20 Stewart ov 12 Newman -130 5 units (This is just ridiculous IMO)
17 Kenseth ov 28 Rudd +150 3 units (While I really like Rudd, this price is simply WAY OFF IMO)
6 Martin ov 17 Kenseth +110 5 units (I know this looks like trouble, but now way should the 6 be + money...no way.)
20 Stewart ov 24 Gordon +126 3 units ( Another matchup that is at least 20 cents off)
Actually it's interesting that instead of making the 2nd car 1st, the 4th 2nd etc., they move up all the odd cars up instead since the 1st, 3rd and 5th cars were the ones that had to go to the rear of the field. So now your starting lineup is as follows: All of a sudden cars like Gordon, Martin and Stewart are more appealing.
1. Ricky Rudd
2. Bill Elliot
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Michael Waltrip
5. Kyle Petty
6. Ricky Craven
7. Mark Martin
8. Elliot Sadler
9. Ken Schrader
10. Jimmie Johnson
11. Tim Raines
12. Robby Gordon
13. Bobby Hamilton
14. Ward Burton
15. Rusty Wallace
16. Bobby Labonte
17. Casey Atwood
18. Jimmy Spencer
19. Tony Stewart
20. Mike Skinner
21. Sterling Marlin
22. Steve Park
23. Dick Trickle
24. Jeremy Mayfield
25. Dale Jarrett
26. Brett Bodine
27. Jeff Burton
28. Joe Nemechek
29. Jeff Green
30. Dale Earnhardt Jr
31. Terry Labonte
32. Stacy Compton
33. Dave Blaney
34. Kevin Harvick
35. Steve Grissom
36. Chad Little
37. Todd Bodine
38. Hut Stricklin
39. John Andretti
40. Kurt Busch
41. Jerry Nadeau
42. Ryan Newman
43. Matt Kenseth
I'm not 100% sure about the last 4 but I believe it is based on when they announced they will be using a backup car and Kenseth was the last to announce he will be in a backup car.
Actually Hartley, not that it really matters all that much, but for anyone who cares, the FIRST car to "mess up" was the 97 of Busch. The 12 of Newman also wrecked in Q, so he was the second car as he came out 4th to last. Then, the 17 of Kenseth blew their engine during the first practice this morning. Lastly, the very fast car of Nadeau (his last week in this ride and most likely for the rest of the year) in the 10 car wrecked in HH sending him to the back.
Now, I really don't know if that's how they decide who goes further back, but I believe that was the order of the breakdowns.
Of course, I have been wrong before, and it's an out-price that I'll be wrong again. FWIW.
20 Stewart ov 24 Gordon +132 2 units (I loved +126, but +132 is just silly....this is a very close matchup, and in no way should a guy who owns Dover be + any money over anyone else. Even Mr. "I used to be Mr. Dover.")
Huckleberry yes olympic has these props and
Group to have the highest finishing driver wins the bet for this category. good Luck
"JJ Call me a 2'x4' again on the forum and your going to pay" Sportman.