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UFC 69 4/7: GSP/Matt Serra Over-Under
On BETUS they have an Over/Under up right now for the Georges St. Pierre and Matt Serra fight. Serra is going to be coming up to the 170 lbs weight class to fight GSP who has been the most dominating fighter there for the past few years. GSP dismantled former champion Matt Hughes (The greatest 170lbs. ever IMO) in under 1 1/2 rds while Serra struggled to win this title shot in an uninspiring match against gatekeeper Chris Lytle who was dominated by Matt Hughes earlier this month. Obviously one fighter doing well against another doesn't mean that if A beat B and B beat C then A should beat C but GSP has been fighting on a different level the past year.
Right now the line stands like this:
Over 2 1/2 EVEN
Under 2 1/2 -140
Line looks way off to me as GSP should have a huge advantage standing as well as be the much bigger and dominating fighter on the ground. I definitely love the UNDER and would like to hear anyone elses thoughts. Hopefully I have not been drinking to much of the GSP Kool Aid but I think he may be the 2nd best lbs. 4 lbs. fighter in the world after Fedor.
personally I don't usually play totals cause I am normally completely off on them lol
GSP fights have gone an average of about 1.75 rounds in the UFC, so based on that, the under would seem to be the play
only problem is that Serra is known for going the distance. 7 of his 9 fights have gone to the scorecard (including his last 6 in a row), and another one was a KO loss at 4:51 in the 3rd. He has an average of about 2.73 rounds in the UFC
With GSP being a huge favorite, you might expect that he would dictate the tempo and keep the fight short. Also since he has a good matchup edge in striking, you might expect him to work for the KO rather than wrestle around on the ground with Serra.
also remember that this is a 5-round fight. So I have to wonder if maybe the fighters will come out slow and not try to burn out in the early rounds?
on another note - you might want to check out the MMA forum here
sometimes you might get some opinions down there where it is less busy
well i wont bet any of that, seems like a waste of time, id rather bet a small one on serra and watch this ufc pass me by. After cleaning house on randy C. I doubt i'll hit another upset so soon.
But i dont thinkg GSP is as good as everyone acts like he is, he is great but he is not a proven force yet. He has a big heart, but i think luck could lose him a fight easily. I see him losing to almost anyone 1 outa 5 fights and winning easily the other 4. so imma bet small on the +625 and hope in the future they come up with some more even matchups instead of them always throwing a huge dog to the wolves
lebowski imma take your advice and try a unit against Koscheck
if you like Kos, i think now is the time to act. I can't see him going any higher, but I can see him dropping. I have no doubts that he makes weight and comes to fight in top condition.
o/u 2.5 seems like an obvious under. But consider this... Matt Serra is a very cautious, defensive first fighter (too cautious to succeed at championship level.) He has very good BJJ, which is the kind of thing that has slowed down GSP. That being said, Serra is overmatched and it appears to me that GSP has one speed when he enters the octagon. I would favor the under, if I had to play it.
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