Tommy Gold NFL Picks

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) are doing a nice season, their good QB despite his youth is showing much quality by making the right calls and with great displays and the best sector of this Falcons team is undoubtedly their offense,with 2 great Wide Receivers and one of the best TE on the league, with makes this offense quite powerful and difficult to stop. Yet, on the rushing game, despite having a good rusher, they were unable so far to have good results on the field when carrying the ball, however their passing game has been enough to compensate their lack of power on the ground offense. The Falcons D has been very good on the passing game and they had some big problems against the rushing game in the past, but on the last games they showed great improvements, still they aren't a great defense on that matter, but there are on the league teams that defend worse than the Falcons against the ground offense

Dallas Cowboys (3-2) doesn't have a bad offense, but is not that powerful offense of the previous seasons. QB Tony Romo loses his head a lot of times and throws the ball at random, which makes one believe that they should rely more often on their rushing game, but the biggest issued with this team is really on their defense, with their secondary and mainly their safeties playing very badly, and that is having a serious impact on the Dallas D performance, they had suffered a lot of points and if they don't improve soon, starting today, they will have big troubles against the Falcons offense.

The best strategy for the Falcons is to start the game early in the lead to force QB Tony Romo to commit the same usual mistake, which is, instead of rushing the ball, is to throw the ball and that is a great advantage for the Falcons, which at this time have the best team and are quite capable of winning this match straight up.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek

[TommyGold]

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins

New Orleans Saints (5-0), have been terrific on the offense ataque, QB Drew Brees is showing to be one of the best on the the league and he shows great skill in throwing the ball very deep in the field, destrying the oppositions' defenses completely. The Saints also have outstanding Wide Receivers and a good rushing game, which is not used very often. But the success of this team is due to their defense, which has improved from the last season, playing quite well against both the rushing game and the passing game as well.

Miami Dolphins (2-3) are a good team on the running game, with several options on that ground offense, they use the Wildcat formation very well and that makes life very hard to the opponents' defenses. For me, that won't work against the Saints, if the Fins play like that, they will lose by a 3 Touchdowns margin at least, if they want to win this game, they have to play it relying more on the passing game, playing like the Saints do, and they have a good quarterback capable of throwing deep balls. The great problem on the Dolphins D is on his safeties and that is a plus for me, because I expect the Saints to crush this defense.

The only explanation for seeing a Saints -6 spread is that the Dolphins had a bye week, but that won't stop the powerful Saints O, this is a game that can have a lot of points and I expect New Orleans to win this match by 37-20.


Picks: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker & Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[StarnetGypsy]

outstanding Tommy! hittin' 100% so far

[TommyGold]

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) are improving week after week, with a good quarterback and excellent Wide Receivers as offensive weapons, which makes this offense quite strong and difficult to stop. The Cards D is very good at stopping the opposition's rushing game, but it is also true that they are having a lot of troubles to stop the opponents' passing game. I expect them to repeat the same strategy employed in their last game by doing "blitzes" against the opponent's QB, but they will face a strong OL, which should give enough time to Eli Manning to do his Passing Game.

New York Giants (5-1) after the humillianting defeat against the Saints in New Orleans Saints will surely return to the wins. They have a very strong offense, starting with the franchise QB Eli Manning and with excellent young wide receivers, besides a good OL capable of giving the time needed for their QB to make his calls. The Giants are also playing very well in their Defense, until they faced a powerful offense and were completely thrashed, leaving too much room for the opponent's WRs, which translated in too many points conceded in their last game.

This will be a great game to watch, with good WRs and QBs always ready to score points and with "soft" defenses, which will make this match interesting, close and with a lot of points scored, something around 30-27.


Pick: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Yesterday we started 5-0 with the 01:00 PM EST games and ended the day with an 8-4.


For the Week 7 Monday Nighf Football, I'm going with road favorite previously posted:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) comes from a humiliating defeating in Oakland where they were a simply "no show" and I don't believe that they will do such a lousy game again this season. they are well served in the quarterback position, with a good starting QB, even the backups are good players. They also have good rushers and good wide receivers, which turns this team very powerful in their offense and allows them to score a lot of points, but they had a soft schedule so far this season. I think that the Eagles will use RB Brian Westbrook more often on this game, for me that was the biggest problem on their last game against the Raiders, he was rarely used on the offense on that game, that and some lack of drive and motivation.

Washington Redskins (2-4) continue to have internal problems inside the organization which is never a good thing for a NFL team. The Redskins QB Jason Campbell is under a lot of pressure which is not a good thing for the team and that is reflecting on the passing game. Their wins were against teams (Rams & Bucs) that don't scare anyone on this league. The Washington defense against high scoring teams has been very bad against the opponent's rushing game, the same goes against the opposition's passing game.

I trully don't believe Philadelphia losing this game and with all those problems affecting the Redskins, I believe that the Eagles will win this game big time, scoring a lot of points.


Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek


Weird, I'm 25-18 (58,14%) on chalk...

[TommyGold]

Originally Posted by StarnetGypsy

outstanding Tommy! hittin' 100% so far

Many thanks, StarnetGypsy!

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by TommyGold

The Washington defense against high scoring teams has been very bad against the opponent's rushing game, the same goes against the opposition's passing game.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Weird, I'm 25-18 (58,14%) on chalk...

sorry Tommy, but gotta disagree a wee bit with you on that comment. Skins have actually played all their games with close losses of a TD or less, on the road (except KC which was 8pts), and let's not forget they're ranked #2 against the passing game defensively.

congrats on the 58% tho!

... and because their games have been so close (including the wins), i'm on the Skins +7½ tonight


Sun 9/13 New York Giants at NY Giants L 17 - 23 (6pts)
Sun 9/20 St. Louis Rams St. Louis W 9 - 7
Sun 9/27 Detroit Lions at Detroit L 14 - 19 (5pts)
Sun 10/4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay W 16 - 13
Sun 10/11 Carolina Panthers at Carolina L 17 - 20 (3pts)
Sun 10/18 Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City L 6 - 14 (8pts)

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by StarnetGypsy

sorry Tommy, but gotta disagree a wee bit with you on that comment. Skins have actually played all their games with close losses of a TD or less, on the road (except KC which was 8pts), and let's not forget they're ranked #2 against the passing game defensively.

congrats on the 58% tho!

nuff said?

[TommyGold]

Below is my Week 7 results recap:

45 - San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (7-37: WIN)
46 - Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (6-42: WIN)
47 - Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-31: WIN)
48 - Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (27-17: WIN)
49 - New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (7-35: WIN)
50 - New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-38: LOSS)
51 - Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek (9-20: LOSS)
52 - Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (45-10: WIN)
53 - New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-46: WIN)
54 - New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (34-46: WIN)
55 - Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek (37-21: LOSS)
56 - Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (17-24: LOSS)
57 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek (17-27: WIN)

SIDES: 8-3; TOTALS: 1-1 (Week 7: +4,47 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 31-26 (+2,38 units won/57 units risked);
SIDES: 29-21 (+5,52 unit won/50 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3,14 units lost/7 units risked).

I'm winning 59,09% on chalk (favorites) and i'm winning 58% on pointspreads... Let's see if I can end the season with a decent winning percentage (55% at least) on all my NFL 2009 regular season picks...

[TommyGold]

Originally Posted by StarnetGypsy

nuff said?

Don't forget the sauce!!! J/K

[TommyGold]

For NFL 2009 Week 8, I've only 7 pointspreads to risk:

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes; HOU -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants +1 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend. :)

[TommyGold]

ACHTUNG/ ATENTION: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: NYG +1 -110 (1.91) The Greek is incorrect. My mistake.


This is the correct line:
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica



Folks, I'm aware that most of the decent offshores sportsbooks have now NYG -1 -110 (1.91), but since Bet Jamaica has a nice $5K USD pointspread wager/stakes limit for the NFL, I'm gonna take it, if it is not a problem to all of you. :)

[TommyGold]

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

This will be again a very special game for QB Brett Favre and I think we will come out winning again. On their first encounter, the Packers were extremely focused in stopping the Vikes rushing game, so Brett Favre did 24/31 on passing, therefore Green Bay will face a major dilemma today, if they focus too much on RB Adrian Peterson, Favre solves the game, if they take too much attention to the Purps' passing game, Adrian Peterson solves the game, meaning that this Vikings O is very complete and has good weapons for every kind of offensive game.

The Vikings D is also very good, but we must not forget that QB Aaron Rodgers did an excellent game against this same defense, specially in the last quarter, but it wasn't enough to get the Packers a win. Green Bay will surely use more often their passing game, because their ground offense has no solutions against the Minny run defense.

This game will be played in a familiar territory for Favre and that will be surely another motivation factor for him, since arriving to the Vikings he has become a more calm quarterback, making the right calls and never risking random throws, because he knows that RB Adrian Peterson is at his disposal.

For me, Minnesota could have won against Pittsburgh on the road, they have shown a lot of quality during these 7 weeks and they have a better defense than the Packers, they have a better offense and they have the best rusher of the NFL, so I believe that the Vikings will win this game SU.


Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are playing much better lately, specially on their defense against the opponents' passing game, and now they really look like that team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Arizona is using on the last weeks RB Tim Hightower as a short pass option for QB Kurt Warner and that is a major complication for the opponents' defenses, which already have to worry about Warner's deep throws to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, 2 excellent wide receivers.

Carolina Panthers on the offense has nothing to offer besides their rushing game with RB DeAngelo Williams and RB Jonathan Stewart and that is a big problem for the Panthers, because right now, the Cardinals are the NFL's best team stopping the opponent's rushing game. Knowing how bad this Carolina team is on the passing game, their QB Jake Delhomme is one the worst in the league according to the season's rankings, same goes to his wide receivers, we will not see much of this Carolina offense today.

With the Cardinals playing at home and doing much better now, their offense will prevail over the Panthers D and this Carolina offense doesn't have options to complicate matters for the Cardinals defense, so I expect a home win by 2 or more touchdowns.


Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Tennesse QB Vince Young will start today thanks to the pressure of the Titans' CEO and to be honest, I don't think this will be a good ideia. When you play against the Jaguars, you should always press their secondary, because they only have 5 sacks this season and that is by far their biggest defensive problem. I'm aware that they had two weeks to adjust their offense to the new quarterback, but I doubt that it will be enough time to create the needed automatisms in the Titans' offense.

It is true that both teams prefer to play the Rushing Game, RB Chris Johnson for the Titans, a great rusher, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jags, who did 7 touchdowns on his last 4 games, which makes both teams even on this chapter. However, the Jacksonville defense is not that bad in stopping the opponent's rushing game.

The great upset for the Titans defense is on their secondary, a real mess, with a lot of injuries on that unit, and that has been exploited by the opponents' quarterbacks. QB David Garrard can be very confortable inside the pocket, because the Titans' front four can't deliver any pressure against the opposition's quarterback, and that will give David Garrard enough time for him to lead is team forward.

Garrard has been quite well this season, calling the right plays and Maurice Jones-Drew has been awesome lately, so if we have Garrard on a good day, surely the Jaguarscan win this game SU.


Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

If the Falcons defense keeps playing like they did lately, then they will face a great nightmare in New Orleans. They are being very vulnerable both against the running game and the passing game and the only way I see Atlanta to fight for the win in this game is to nullify the Saints' rushing game and mainly to deliver pressure and to sack the QB Drew Brees, which is a thing I doubt will happen today.

Atlanta offense has a good QB Matt Ryan, great quality Wide Receivers and a nice Tight End, but on the last games, Matt Ryan has been playing very badly and is making several bad calls during the games and that has translated in losses for the Falcons

The New Orleans Saints have always been a very powerful team on the offense, but what makes this team really dangerous is the way how this team has found their balance. Not only they attack very well but also they are capable now of defending very well too, which has shown great results for the Saints.

Until now, stopping the Saints has been practically impossible, the ease how New Orleans has their quarterback throwing deep balls is awesome and the Saints have also been very good on the rushing game, which makes it even more complicated to defend against this powerful offense. If we take in account the fact that the Saints D has also been impressive, with a lot of interceptions under their belt and a good man coverage, then you really have to give to this New Orleans team their due credit and acknowledge an edge for this game.

The Saints when playing at home, are extremely difficult to beat, they have a tremendous crowd support and despite the last hick up in Miami, the team is in great shape and is surely one of the main contenders to be on the next Super Bowl this season. For this game, I'm going to take New Orleans and I believe they will win by 2 or more touchdowns


New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Below is my Week 8 results recap:

58 - Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes (10-31: WIN)
59 - Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (38-17: WIN)
60 - New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (40-17: LOSS)
61 - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica (30-13: LOSS)
62 - Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker (26-38: WIN)
63 - Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica (21-34: LOSS)
64 - Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (35-27: LOSS)

SIDES: 3-4; (Week 8: -1.13 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 34-28 (+1.25 units won/64 units risked);
SIDES: 32-25 (+4.39 units won/57 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3.14 units lost/7 units risked).

I've to improve my reads, too many pointspreads (12-12) won/lost by 10 or more points on the last 4 weeks...

[TommyGold]

For NFL 2009 Week 9, I've only 5 pointspreads to risk:

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek;

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek;

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker;

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF): Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker;

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF): Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend.

[TommyGold]

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals come from a Bye Week and had enough time to study the Ravens and will surely be fit for this game. Baltimore after 3 straight losses were able to win their last game in a surprising way, still the team will have to raise their game to beat the Bengals on the road.

Baltimore's defense was undoubtedly their strong spot and was regarded as the best of the NFL, but with the transfer of Rex Ryan to the New York Jets team, we have seen a lot of mistakes done by the Ravens' D and their opponents had taken advantage of those errors. On the other hand, we have a good QB Carson Palmer who usually plays very well against Baltimore and he has good chances to do deep passes on this game with WR Chad Ochocinco as the main target. On the Running Game, Cincinnati has RB Cedric Benson playing very well this season and he has been reliable game after game.

Cincy is having a lot of difficulties on focus against average teams, their motivation seems to never be the better, but against top teams, they always give their best and on this season, they are being quite successful, their defense has been quite well too, mainly against the opponents' running game. I see a lot of troubles for RB Ray Rice to do a good game today and the same goes to QB Joe Flacco and his deep passes para o WR Derrick Mason, which will be today a risky proposition because Cincy D has been playing very well against the passing game too.

This season I consider these Bengals a serious contender for the playoffs, with an excellent defense and offense so far, as long Carson Palmer remains healthy, and for this game, Cincinnati has the edge on all the match ups (defense, offense, running game and QB position) and their home field advantage will surely help the small home dog Bengals to win this game straight up.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek