2009 Survivor Pool strategy.

[TheGuesser]

Love playing these, and have actually cashed the last couple of years. My strategy is fairly simple, Avoid Road teams at all costs, and try not to be on the most popular game of any week. If you last late in these, both of the above may have to be violated, but certainly not early. The last few years, about 50% of the contestants are knocked out in week 1 and week 2.
Teams to avoid week 1:
Saints
Ravens
Chargers
In the pools I've seen, Saints are the runaway leader. It's impossible for the Saints to lose to Detroit. I agree with that. Saints are my NFC Super Bowl team, and Detroit is Detroit and worse yet, are starting an overmatched Stafford. There is NO WAY N.O. loses this game. But if they do, about 40% will be knocked out. I won't be one of them on this game.
Ravens are the #2 team in the pools I've seen. I can see them losing, and don't want any part of them, as they usually play close to the vest games, and you can lose close games if you turn it over, no matter how much better you are. Until I see their style of play has changed, I'll avoid the Ravens unless forced to take them later.
SD is On the ROAD. Against a divisional foe. With Norv Turner as Coach. Pass.
So I'm between NE over Buffalo, and the one I'm choosing, Seattle over SL. Will have many opportunities to use NE, and this might be one of my best opportunities to use Seattle, at home against a weak Ram team.
So week 1: Seattle. If I last, will update this weekly, and would like other Survivor pool participants to voice their strategies and plays.

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by TheGuesser

one of my best opportunities to use Seattle, at home against a weak Ram team.

So week 1: Seattle. If I last, will update this weekly, and would like other Survivor pool participants to voice their strategies and plays.

i will jump out of the basement window if my Hawks don't cover

[TheGuesser]

Originally Posted by StarnetGypsy

i will jump out of the basement window if my Hawks don't cover

All they have to do is win. No spreads. Survive and advance.

[TheGuesser]

Shockingly, no Shocking upsets in week 1, although Baltimore, NE, and SD are were in danger very late in their games. Very few eliminations.
Week 2 has only 2 possibilities for me, GB hosting Cinn, or Wash hosting SL. Since I respect Cinn far more than SL, this is an easy choice for me, and I'll go with Wash. Hopefully lots of folks will play the Vikes AT Detroit. That's the game this week that will hopefully thin the herd a bit.

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by TheGuesser

All they have to do is win. No spreads. Survive and advance.

other than HasselPick slinging 2/INTs straight off, they looked pretty good

[TheGuesser]

About 15% of the players got knocked out by GB and Tenn losses.
Week 3 leaves me with 4 possibilities. The most obvious and safest is Baltimore hosting Cleveland, and I might ultimately go there, but right now I'm trying to avoid that one, and save Baltimore for later use. I'm leaning towards Philly hosting KC, but will wait until later to see Philly's multipe injury situation. Other possibilities are Dallas hosting the desperate Panthers, and a risky one as far as what the line is, but one I love for wagering prposes, Houston hosting Jax. I'm 90% sure it'll be Philly for me.

[canabiz]

Philly and Ravens look like good bets to me.

I'd avoid Dallas, Giants and even the inconsistent Texans, not this week anyway because Houston does play Oakland next week.

[TheGuesser]

If anyone got eliminated in a Survivor pool today, they should never play in one again. No one was eliminated in the pools I'm in.

[TheGuesser]

Last week used the 49ers. Again, no one should have been eliminated as no home favorite lost.
This week, 2 obvious picks in Giants hosting Oak, and Philly hosting TB. Either losing would qualify as the biggest upset of the season. I used Philly, so the Giants it is, even if Eli doesn't play. Next week, if I get there, will also be esay, but Week 7, 10/25 will be a challenging week. Lots of poor home teams hosting good road teams that week, and although I hate to do it, might have to look on the road.

[TheGuesser]

Another week where no one should have been eliminated in any pool. The huge upsets aren't coming this year.
Next week, lots of home teams hosting bad teams to choose from. Pitt hosting Cleve, Jax hosting Rams, GB hosting Det, Jets hosting Bills, NE hosting Tenn.

[TheGuesser]

I went with Green Bay, only because there will be spots soon for the other 4 I mentioned. If no big upsets happen this week, I'll have to start thinking about not using teams I think might not be in the playoffs, because it looks like the huge upsets just aren't coming this year, and this thing may last awhile. That's actually part of the reason I chose GB instead of Pitt. Plus, I haven't used an AFC team yet, so why start now. I've charted out the season through the next to last week, and next week will be the toughest week for me. I may have to use a road team, which I am loathe to do, but looking at next week, the only home possibilities are Hous hosting SF, and Carolina hosting Buff, neither of which I'm crazy about right now.

[RaisinCapital]

What about IND coming off bye at STL

[TheGuesser]

Originally Posted by RaisinCapital

What about IND coming off bye at STL

Road team, AND lock playoff team I'd like to avoid, but defintely a consideration next week. If I HAVE to use a Road team next week, I'd probably choose the Jets AT Oakland, but we'll see next week.

[RaisinCapital]

turf team on turf ... gl

[TheGuesser]

FINALLY, a couple of big upsets, although anyone using Philly ON THE ROAD was nuts today, if they had any of GB, Pitt, Jags, Jets, NE, all at home available. Jets just a tough loss, and Jags loss would've really done some extra damage.
Next week looks like Hous hosting SF, Carolina hosting Bills(leaning towards this right now), and some big road faves in Indy @ SL and Jets @ Oakland. Also NE playing TB in London, a neutral field game, that I might wind up using if I don't choose Carolina. Thing about Carolina is they rush the ball and Bills gave up over 300 yards rushing, so should be safe play, and save NE for later.

[TheGuesser]

Decided to be gutless and use NE, along with probably half the pool's participants. Just don't quite trust Carolina enough, and don't wanna be eliminated using a bad team. Carolina does host TB down the road.

[TheGuesser]

Whew. Glad I was gutless. This week, SD or Chicago. Will use the one that the lower % of people seem to be using, since looking at their schedules, there's no advantage or disadvantage to using either this week. It's really a coin toss, and I'll go with the less popular of the 2.

[TheGuesser]

Da Bears

[TheGuesser]

This week between NO over Carolina, or Atlanta over Wash. I'll go with Atlanta facing the weaker team, and see if NO has the expected big letdown and causes some pool havoc.