2009 Carib Classic Thread

[TheGuesser]

Last year was lots of fun. On the fringe of cashing all season, and then choked a 4-6 last week to just miss. Congrats to Superfly and hope you cash again. Hope you do also Delly, and any other MW posters that are in the contest.
So far there are 11 games I'm considering, but won't play Tuesday's #'s, as I expect some lines to go my way, and I doubt any will go against me, at least off any key numbers. The only one that may go aginst me is Hous, which is currently -4.5, but as long as it doesn't go over 6, I'm OK. Back with plays when I put it in.

[TheGuesser]

Got a couple of needed moves, KC to +13 and Carolina to +2. Since I wanted to use Tenn, put it in now. Last eiminated, Saints -13. Have way too many Dogs, but that's the way it shook out.
Titans vs Steelers (Week 1)(NBC)
8:30 pm
Titans +6
Dolphins vs Falcons (Week 1)
Sun Sep 13 1:00 pm
Dolphins +4
Chiefs vs Ravens (Week 1)
Sun Sep 13 1:00 pm
Chiefs +13
Eagles vs Panthers (Week 1)
Sun Sep 13 1:00 pm
Panthers +2
Vikings vs Browns (Week 1)
Sun Sep 13 1:00 pm
Browns +4
Jets vs Texans (Week 1)
Sun Sep 13 1:00 pm
Texans -4.5
Jaguars vs Colts (Week 1)
Sun Sep 13 1:00 pm
Jaguars +7
Cowboys vs Bucs (Week 1)
Sun Sep 13 1:00 pm
Bucs +6
Bears vs Packers (Week 1)(NBC)
Sun Sep 13 8:20 pm
Bears +3.5
Chargers vs Raiders (Week 1)(ESPN)
Mon Sep 14 10:15 pm
Raiders +9

[TheGuesser]

3-7 Week 1 and last place is now the target. My early opinions of the NFL are clearly off, so If I keep doing what I did, and stick to those opinions, I may have a vaible shot. Played the Tuesday card to lock in Texans at +7, and Ariz more than +3, since those are currently gone, even though there are multiple games missing from the card, including 1 I'd probably like in NO.
Week 2 Guesses:
The 2009 NFL Carib Classic Contest
Bengals vs Packers (Week 2)*Over*42.0*(O)
Vikings vs Lions (Week 2)*Under*47.0*(O)
Panthers vs Falcons (Week 2)*Panthers*6.0*(O)
Bengals vs Packers (Week 2)*Bengals*9.0*(O)
Cardinals vs Jaguars (Week 2)*Cardinals*3.5*(O)
Texans vs Titans (Week 2)*Texans*7.0*(O)
Seahawks vs 49ers (Week 2)*Seahawks*1.5*(O)
Steelers vs Bears (Week 2)*Bears*3.0*(O)
Giants vs Cowboys (Week 2)(NBC)*Giants*3.0*(O)
Colts vs Dolphins (Week 2)(ESPN)*Dolphins*3.5*(O)

[Dell Dude]

Too I agree with. Six I disagree with. And I also like Eagles minus McMonkey. Aints aren't playing at home against a division three team anymore. We'll seay.

[Dell Dude]

Going threw your card, not playing any totals but I find it unlikely Bungals can cover in a high scoring game. Panthers play I like but think it may go back to +6.5. Wouldn't touch Lyons total. Hope you're right. Most people prob on over. Think Cards will get pasted. They sucked on the road last year, and they ain't going to the super this year - prob not even the playoffs. Think Titans roll. Think Niners win. Like Steelers. Bears season is done already without Urlacker. Agree with Gents and disagree with Miami after their pitiful performance at Atlanta. Somebody's ass is gonna be red Sunday night. Hope it ain't mine.

[TheGuesser]

Originally Posted by Dell Dude

Going threw your card, not playing any totals but I find it unlikely Bungals can cover in a high scoring game. Panthers play I like but think it may go back to +6.5. Wouldn't touch Lyons total. Hope you're right. Most people prob on over. Think Cards will get pasted. They sucked on the road last year, and they ain't going to the super this year - prob not even the playoffs. Think Titans roll. Think Niners win. Like Steelers. Bears season is done already without Urlacker. Agree with Gents and disagree with Miami after their pitiful performance at Atlanta. Somebody's ass is gonna be red Sunday night. Hope it ain't mine.

I usually play totals in this contest to be on the favorable side of a move, as I did in Det-Minny, but I really like the GB-Bengals Over on it's own. I'm glad for the numerous disagreements because right now my NFL opinion sucks, and you seem zoned in, so you're probably in good shape disagreeing on so many games, and I'm shooting for the bottom. Good luck, and I hope we don't go 3-3 on the disagreements. That would be worthless to us both.

[TheGuesser]

Pulled a 7-3 outa my ass, and am now at the dreaded .500 at 10-10, the worst place to be in a contest that pays for top 20 and bottom. At least I know my 2009 NFL opinion may not be as out of whack as I thought, and maybe week 1 was a fluke. Or maybe week 2 was?
I pretty much have my 10 selections, but 3 aren't up at Carib yet, and one of them(Philly) may not be up until later in the week.
I already know I'm going to lose a point from +5 to +4 with Cinnci, but doubt it goes lower than that. The contest's -4 on Houston looks like it's 3.5 everywhere else. And the Raiders are only getting better than Carib's current -2. It's already Denver -1.5 elsewhere. If any line move seriously screws me, I can always go to a moving total that the contest is slow on.

[TheGuesser]

Very squuare card. Wanted to lock in Tenn at 3, arther than risk the 2.5, and forfeited the Eagles, who still aren't up. Carib seems to be holding Oak at +1 even though it's higher elsewhere.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Redskins vs Lions (Week 3)*Lions*6.5*(O)
Bears vs Seahawks (Week 3)*Seahawks*2.0*(O)
Dolphins vs Chargers (Week 3)*Dolphins*6.0*(O)
Browns vs Ravens (Week 3)*Browns*13.5*(O)
Steelers vs Bengals (Week 3)*Bengals*4.0*(O)
Falcons vs Patriots (Week 3)*Patriots*-4.0*(O)
Broncos vs Raiders (Week 3)*Raiders*1.0*(O)
Colts vs Cardinals (Week 3)(NBC)*Cardinals*-2.0*(O)
Jaguars vs Texans (Week 3)*Texans*-4.0*(O)
Titans vs Jets (Week 3)*Titans*3.0*(O)

[Dell Dude]

We agree 5. Diss 2. Good Luck. On the 5.

[TheGuesser]

Another 3-7 disgust fest. Looks like tough week for all MW participants. HATE the card this week, and just noticed I put in the wrong total for Det game. Liked Under, hit Over. Oh well. I'm shooting for the cellar, so maybe a good thing:
Raiders vs Texans (Week 4)

Sun Oct 4 1:00 pm

Over 41
Titans vs Jaguars (Week 4)

Sun Oct 4 1:00 pm

Jaguars +3
Ravens vs Patriots (Week 4)

Sun Oct 4 1:00 pm

Patriots -2
Bengals vs Browns (Week 4)

Sun Oct 4 1:00 pm

Browns +5.5
Giants vs Chiefs (Week 4)

Sun Oct 4 1:00 pm

Chiefs +9
Lions vs Bears (Week 4)

Sun Oct 4 1:00 pm

Lions +10
Lions vs Bears (Week 4)

Sun Oct 4 1:00 pm

Over 39.5
Jets vs Saints (Week 4)

Sun Oct 4 4:05 pm

Saints -6.5
Cowboys vs Broncos (Week 4)

Sun Oct 4 4:15 pm

Broncos +3
Packers vs Vikings (Week 4)(ESPN)

Mon Oct 5 8:35 pm

Packers +3.5

[Dell Dude]

"I am accepting new clients on a limited basis. You seem like a candidate, Mr. Guesser."

[TheGuesser]

6-4 week, 19-21 for season, and firmly in nowhere-ville. Nothing to play for, wait till next year mode. Need a 9-1 or 1-9 week to change that.
Redskins vs Panthers (Week 5)*Panthers*-3.5*(O)
Redskins vs Panthers (Week 5)*Under*37.5*(O)
Raiders vs Giants (Week 5)*Under*40.5*(O)
Cowboys vs Chiefs (Week 5)*Under*43.0*(O)
Bengals vs Ravens (Week 5)*Bengals*9.0*(O)
Texans vs Cardinals (Week 5)*Over*48.0*(O)
Steelers vs Lions (Week 5)*Over*43.5*(O)
Patriots vs Broncos (Week 5)*Broncos*3.5*(O)
Colts vs Titans (Week 5) (NBC)*Titans*3.5*(O)
Jets vs Dolphins (Week 5) (ESPN)*Dolphins*1.5*(O)

[TheGuesser]

7-3 week, 25-25 for season, firmly entrenched in .500 hell.
Ravens vs Vikings (Week 6)*Under*44.0*(O)
Giants vs Saints (Week 6)*Saints*-3.0*(O)
Panthers vs Bucs (Week 6)*Under*40.0*(O)
Ravens vs Vikings (Week 6)*Vikings*-2.5*(O)
Eagles vs Raiders (Week 6)*Raiders*14.0*(O)
Rams vs Jaguars (Week 6)*Under*42.0*(O)
Cardinals vs Seahawks (Week 6)*Seahawks*-3.0*(O)
Bears vs Falcons (Week 6) (NBC)*Bears*3.0*(O)
Broncos vs Chargers (Week 6) (ESPN)*Broncos*3.5*(O) Rams vs Jaguars (Week 6)*Jaguars*-9.5*(O)

Last toss was KC +6.5, as it's going down, but used Jags -9.5 instead.

[Dell Dude]

Same. 7-3 and 25-25. Don't understand give up mentality? I can show you the numbers. Neither of us out of it. Basically three great weeks from being right there. Three great weeks and twelve weeks to do it. GL.

[Dell Dude]

60% is 99% good enough to Michael Cash. Last year, that was good enough for 2nd all alone. You and I are five wins under 60%. We need to win at least 6-4 every week and then pick off 5 extra wins sometime within the next 12 weeks. 77777 would do it. 7787 would do it. 779 would do it. 89 would do it. I've already won 7 twice out of five weeks so it is definitely possible to win 7 five more times over 12. No marvin of error. Even a 5 sets you back and you can run out of road. But certainly not impossible. I was about ready to give up but I rolled a seven, so I want to seay if I can follow that up with an 8...

[anglyzly]

Originally Posted by Dell Dude

Same. 7-3 and 25-25. Don't understand give up mentality? I can show you the numbers. Neither of us out of it. Basically three great weeks from being right there. Three great weeks and twelve weeks to do it. GL.

Out of the many posts, this one attract my attention. I believe it is possible for anyone to participate.
Excellent ! I like it very much.

[TheGuesser]

Originally Posted by Dell Dude

Same. 7-3 and 25-25. Don't understand give up mentality? I can show you the numbers. Neither of us out of it. Basically three great weeks from being right there. Three great weeks and twelve weeks to do it. GL.

Because I'm 2-7 with 1 pending, that's why. Just not happenning this year. Not giving up, just accepting my fate, although a few 2-8's might start to make headway on the cellar.

[Dell Dude]

[TheGuesser]

3-7 yet again. If the pattern follows, I'll go 7-3 and right back to .500 Hell.

Vikings vs Steelers (Week 7)*Under*45.0*(O)
Patriots vs Bucs (Week 7)*Patriots*-14.5*(O)
49ers vs Texans (Week 7)*Texans*-3.0*(O)
Bears vs Bengals (Week 7)*Bengals*-1.0*(O)
Jets vs Raiders (Week 7)*Raiders*6.5*(O)
Falcons vs Cowboys (Week 7)*Over*47.0*(O)
Bills vs Panthers (Week 7)*Panthers*-6.5*(O)
Saints vs Dolphins (Week 7)*Dolphins*6.0*(O)
Saints vs Dolphins (Week 7)*Under*47.5*(O)
Falcons vs Cowboys (Week 7)*Cowboys*-3.5*(O)