Dell Dude's 2009 Carib Classic Championship thread

[Dell Dude]

still havent filled out card. have 15 available bets to fill 10. i go 15-0, means nothing. i go 10-5, means everything. looking at lines, thinking about strategy and trying to rank. i said no totals, but if i can go 2-0 on games, that is dagger time. i will selectively plays these if i think the worst i can do is split. example: if i think packers will score a lot or steelers will shut down bears. i'm right, can do no worse than 1-1. playing with fire. 0-2 is also dagger time.

[Dell Dude]

The 2009 NFL Carib Classic Contest



Texans vs Titans (Week 2) Titans -6.0 (O)
Patriots vs Jets (Week 2) Patriots -3.5 (O)
Vikings vs Lions (Week 2) Lions +9.5 (O)
Saints vs Eagles (Week 2) Eagles +1.0 (O)
Panthers vs Falcons (Week 2) Panthers +6.0 (O)
Cardinals vs Jaguars (Week 2) Jaguars -3.0 (O)
Ravens vs Chargers (Week 2) Ravens +3.0 (O)
Steelers vs Bears (Week 2) Steelers -3.0 (O)
Giants vs Cowboys (Week 2)(NBC) Giants +3.0 (O)
Giants vs Cowboys (Week 2)(NBC) Over 44.5 (O)

[Dell Dude]

Bets I liked that I didn't include:

raiders +3
pack -9 and over 42
niners -1.5
bucs +4.5
broncos -3
steelers under 37.5

Didn't want to play every single fg game. chances are at least won pooshes, so only played strongest. still good chance i get tagged with a poosh. not catastrophe, but that takes me out of 10-0 and 15 dimes if it happens and won't gain any ground in contest that game.

steelers under i layed off after line dropped from 38. was going to add that to side. likewise, bucs dropped from 5. no play. pack and over just two risky and especially since both are probably heavy square. Decisions, decisions, decisions. We shall seay if I made the right wons...

[Fuzzyxlogikk]

good luck pal, bucks +5 is a play you should have included, my top play this week!!

[Dell Dude]

i like bucs also, but line dropped to +4.5.

[Dell Dude]

Too lines I think are wrong and that's why I bet them, Pats -3.5 and Iggles +1. My line is Pats -7ish and Iggles -3ish. I don't know what happened after week won. Before week won, Pats were supposed to go 12-4 with a HOF quarterback and Jets were suppsed to go 4-12 with a rookie qb. After week won, Patriots are a borderline playoff team and Jets are an up and coming playoff team. That's what the line says. I realize Pats did bad and Jets did good but it's automatic, have to take Brady with the short #. Could look foolish bye 4pm. So be it. Think I win this won. Wouldn't have played Pats -7 btw.

Iggles at home against Saints and dogs? Since when are the Saints a great (or even good) road team? Against the Iggles who I believe will be in the super. Only reasoning for line is McMonkey, but the Iggles are so so much more than McMonkey. Complete team - top to bottom. Kolb or whatever his name is will really have to play like shitt for Iggles to lose. Maybe he will and Brees will throw another 6 touches. We'll seay. Again, would have laid off Iggles at -3.

I liked Lions before and now I am convinced they cover and possibly win after our beloved former coach Monte Clark passed away. Going to win it for him. But I'll take the 9.5 just in case I'm wrong and they don't give a crap about Monte.

Titans beautiful # and they should roll. Falcons have burned me since last season as road faves. Keep covering. Going to make them cover the hard six again against a very good team who played very bad last week. Cardinals are a joke. Still living off last season. Change in time zone road game. Couldn't even beat Cisco at home. They'll lose again at Jax.

Ravens bettor team than Chargers. Ladanian not playing. Sproles probably bettor but I think Ray Lewis and company pretty much shuts Chargers offence down and Ravens now have a pretty good O. Steelers and Bears both lost best defencive player. Steelers still the bettor team. They win a low scoring game. And Boys/Gents will be a shootout with Manning firing the winning shot.

Like this card. 10-0 is possible, but I'm sure there will be a couple lost coinflips and badbeats. Always is. 7-3 is fine. 6-4 is acceptable. 5-5 is poor. 4-6 is pitiful.

GL.

Originally Posted by Dell Dude

Texans vs Titans (Week 2) Titans -6.0 (O)
Patriots vs Jets (Week 2) Patriots -3.5 (O)
Vikings vs Lions (Week 2) Lions +9.5 (O)
Saints vs Eagles (Week 2) Eagles +1.0 (O)
Panthers vs Falcons (Week 2) Panthers +6.0 (O)
Cardinals vs Jaguars (Week 2) Jaguars -3.0 (O)
Ravens vs Chargers (Week 2) Ravens +3.0 (O)
Steelers vs Bears (Week 2) Steelers -3.0 (O)
Giants vs Cowboys (Week 2)(NBC) Giants +3.0 (O)
Giants vs Cowboys (Week 2)(NBC) Over 44.5 (O)

[Dell Dude]

[Dell Dude]

[Dell Dude]

This is what happened. Three bets were clear wins: Ravens, Giants, Giants over. Three bets were clear losses: Pats, Eagles, Jags. Four bets were coinflips: Lions, Panthers, Titans, Steelers. I lost every coinflip. Could have went anywhere from 7-3 to 3-7. 3-7. Not saying these were necessarily badbeats. Nothing two flukey happened. Saying each were within the margin of covering error.

You want to know the difference between college and pros and why I do bettor with college? Spreads not as tight. You can cap more clear wins in college. In pros, most of the time, it's gonna be very near the # and you are at the mercy of things you can not possibly predict - such as review challenges, bullshitt ref penalties or blown calls, pick sixes, muffed punts, dumbass personal fouls, yada yada yada. National Football Lottery. Best you can do is cap as many clear wins as possible and then just pray like good ole Monte Clark.

I went 3-7. Not only that is not surprising. It was expected. And it will happen again. 4-5 times I will win less than 5. 4-5 times I will win more than five. This all comes down to the other 7-9 times. If all of them are 6+, I will be there at the end. If I have more 4- weeks, then bye bye. You are not going to go threw entire season spotless. I was hoping this wouldn't happen until I built up my record. But it happened and I have to go from here.

Basically, I just need a 9-1 any week rest of the way and yesterday didn't happpen. I went 6-4. Just have to cancel every bad week out to 60% - one to one. 60% is 101 wins. 101-105 wins will win it all unless somebody goes crazy. If I cancel every bad week to 60%, that's the championship formula as I will approach 110 wins. Cannot poop the bed again. Need another 7-3 to get back on track. I will seay what I can do.

Thread continues...

[Dell Dude]

Going to have to wait possibly until Sunday for Lions to go to +7. They have to cover eventually, right? Or are they going to double up on last year and go 0-16 spread two?

[Dell Dude]

Notice I'm 4-0 on side/totals. Will selectively be looking for more of these. That definitely helps. Most likely the Lions cover by holding down Skins. Gets to be a shootout, pos Stafford will throw another three picks. Lions and under. Either 2-0 or 0-2. Let's go for it.

[Dell Dude]

Dammit. Lions went down to +6. Not what I was expecting. May have to pull wigger trigger now. This is a key line and that is a key dirty hook...

[Dell Dude]

can't risk having Lions line not come back up. out of the now three weeks, this is by far my strongest card. ak solid from top to bottom. if i go 3-7 again, will be a long season. i expect 7-3 and have a good chance to do even bettor. what i was saying about clear wins, i think i will have at least 5 of those this sunday...

[Dell Dude]

If I don't go 6-4 later today (it's past 1 am), I'll say it right now. It's over. I have a card I believe is ak solid from top to bottom, I have what I think are too slamdunk side/total games. And I have to win. 15-15 or less is close to 10 behind already. I mean, 6-4 would be terrible. I'm just saying what the cutoff is. Honestly, 8-2 is my goal. If it is 7-3, I will be dissapointed. No way Redskins score unless Stafford throws picks. No way Bungals score with or without Palamula. And the rest I am supremely confident. Lots of teams way overvalued. Not even going to worry about it. 5-5 then fuck this league, fuck this contest and fuck this thread.

[Dell Dude]

Redskins vs Lions (Week 3) Lions +6.5 (O)
Redskins vs Lions (Week 3) Under 38.5 (O)
Titans vs Jets (Week 3) Titans +3.0 (O)
Falcons vs Patriots (Week 3) Patriots -4.0 (O)
49ers vs Vikings (Week 3) 49ers +7.0 (O)
Steelers vs Bengals (Week 3) Steelers -4.0 (O)
Steelers vs Bengals (Week 3) Under 37.0 (O)
Saints vs Bills (Week 3) Bills +5.5 (O)
Dolphins vs Chargers (Week 3) Dolphins +6.0 (O)
Broncos vs Raiders (Week 3) Raiders +1.0 (O)

[Dell Dude]

[Dell Dude]

"4-6 at best, Dell."

[Dell Dude]

[Dell Dude]

"4-6, Dell."