Atlanta vs. Indianapolis

[brett j]

NFL - Atlanta at Indianapolis -7.5 - 10:00 am – Atlanta comes into this game at just 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS. On the road, the Dirty Birds are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. The Falcons will take the field without their long time head coach this Sunday, as Atlanta owner Arthur Blank had apparently seen enough and axed Dan Reeves earlier this week. The Falcons started the season on a terrible 1-7 both SU and ATS run, but have been somewhat competitive of late. Atlanta is 2-3 SU and 3-1-1 ATS their last five overall and were without their superstar leader Michael Vick for 12 of their first 13 games. The Falcons received Vick back in line up just this past week and the QB sensation single handedly beat the playoff bound Panthers 20-14. Dan Reeves ranks sixth on the NFL’s all time win list and with his star player back in the line up; seemingly had his team on an uptick. So it goes in the NFL these days. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will step in for Reeves as interim head coach. Indianapolis comes into this game at a sensational 10-3 SU and 8-4-1 ATS. At the RCA Dome, the White Ponies are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS. The Colts are in off a huge 29-27 win at Tennessee last weekend. Indy now has a one game lead over the Titans in the AFC South and also owns the tiebreaker edge. Essentially. that gives Indianapolis control of their own destiny and they can actually clinch the division with a win this Sunday and a loss by Tennessee. With all that is at stake, common sense says the Colts will be focused to play come Sunday. Our inclination however says different. Indy is off emotionally draining back-to-back games vs. the two other best teams in the AFC (New England and Tennessee). In addition, the Colts have another strong AFC opponent on deck, as they host the Broncos on December 21. And remember, Indianapolis does not have to win this game by more than a touchdown to keep pace in the AFC playoff race. A one point win would accomplish the same purpose. We’ve watched enough NFL to know Indy may do just enough to get by in this game. On a technical note, the Colts have always been a poor favorite and that is especially true at home. Indy is now 1-4-1 ATS their last six overall as a favorite and 19-40 ATS their last fifty nine as a home favorite. Note also that the Colts are 20-39 ATS their last fifty nine at home vs. teams with a losing record. We’ll strongly consider taking the Dirty Birds plus the points. Early Prediction: Indianapolis 27 – Atlanta 24