point spread analysis

[Bucky]

There has been a lot of talk about the value of 3 and 7 in Football and the expected number of times a game would land on these numbers.

But do we really care about all the games? Wouldn't it be more valuable to have it broken down to the number of times a team at home favored by 2,3,4 actually won by 3? or as a visitor etc.

14 should land very few times with all the games considered but how many times does a favorite of 13,14, 0r 15 actually win by 14? Wouldn't it be a considerably higher %?

[Peter North]

3 is the biggest number in the NFL that games fall on if I remember correctly. Go to thelogicalapproach.com and read dome of Andy Isko's analysis about key numbers.

It is much more important in the NFL than college.

PN

[Bucky]

Thanks Peter!