Parlays vs. If Win Bets.

ronscomputer · 06-19-2001, 09:22 PM

I realize that some books do not allow If Win bets. However, it would seem for the parlay player worthwile to find one who does.
It seems to me that If win bets are essentially parlays with one major difference. The If Win bets pay substantially better than a parlay.

Example.
7 Team Parlay pays 75 to 1 at betcamelot. So a $100 bet wins $7500.

If Win 6 Teamer with $100 bet

1. $100 to win $91= $191
2. $191 to win $174= $365---- 3.65 to 1
3. $365 to win $332= $697---- 6.97 to 1
4. $697 to win $634= $1331----13.31 to 1
5. $1331 to win $1210= $2541----25.41 to 1
6. $2541 to win $2310= $4851----48.51 to 1
7. $4851 to win $4410= $9261--- 92.61 to 1

Teams In Parlay If Win Odds Parlay Odds

2------------------3.65-----------2.6
3------------------6.97-----------6.0
4-----------------13.31-----------10.0
5-----------------25.41-----------20.0
6-----------------48.51----------40.0
7-----------------92.61----------75.0

I realize it might not make any difference to someone who plays parlays only rarely, but to regular parlay players the better odds are significant. is there something I am neglecting to see?

Don Winters · 06-19-2001, 09:28 PM

www.betgreen.com accepts if/win bets.

blackchip · 06-19-2001, 09:37 PM

Most books do not allow you to risk more on the second part of the if bet than the first part. If they do, then they are allowing you to get true odds and not the reduced parlay odds.

For example $100 on team "a" if win $100 on team "b" is ok. They would (should) not allow you to bet $100 on team "a" and $191 on team "b".

ronscomputer · 06-19-2001, 09:40 PM

I havent done this a lot, but they let me bet all my money on the next game. It was always small stuff though. Usually around 4 teams starting with $30-$35.

buckeye · 06-19-2001, 10:10 PM

One of my favorite topics!

Ron, your computer needs a tune-up! You state the parlay odds correctly, like 2.6, 6, etc. but the conditional odds are overstated by 1 in EACH case! They should be 2.65, 5.97, etc. ( I round to 2.64 and 5.96 since most books do as well ).

You made the "cardinal" mistake of confusing FOR and TO!!!!! It is 3.64 FOR 1, which equates to 2.64 TO 1 and is only slightly worse than 2.6 TO 1 of a traditional 2 teamer. You forgot to take out the original $100 in each example ( the original bet isn't profit ). Check your math again as each one is incorrect due to the FOR/TO mistake!!!

First, at traditional parlay odds ( 13-5, 10-1, etc. ) for 2,4,5+ teamers a conditional ( if win ) is superior in return because 10-11 bets have slightly to greatly less vig for these bets. The difference is small for 2 teamers but gets huge as you get higher up ( Aces Gold has a chart they created - based on a question I asked them in a forum - that demonstrates the difference ). Ron's chart also demonstrates this when it is deflated by 1.

Most outs I play at let you bet more or less on subsequent legs of a conditional. So you could "simulate" a parlay by playing a "let-it-ride" conditional instead at less vig. The only real difference is that a PUSH on the front end leaves "no action" on the back end of a conditional ( a parlay effectively reduces the back end to a straight bet ). An action-to eliminates this but results potentially in 1.909 units on the second instead of 1.

HOWEVER, a 3 teamer pays more than a 3 team let-it-ride conditional, because there is actually less juice ( most "flat bet biggots" are completely unaware of this ) in 6-1 ( the conditional would effectively pay 5.96-1 ). This is small but so is the difference on a 2 teamer 2.6-1 ( 2.64-1 ).

I am a "juice reduce" junky! I look for outs that offer better than 13-5 and 6-1. Some offer as much as 14.5-5 and 6.5-1, and at special times even have no juice ( 3-1, 7-1 ). Those are obviously better than 10-11 conditionals! For astute players, these parlays can be employed to reduce juice on straight bets as well!

Good TOPIC!

AussieVamp2 · 06-19-2001, 10:35 PM

Canbet :-

Parlays NBA, NFL, College Football and Basketball

Parlays involving points and totals for football and basketball bet at -107 would result in the following pays:

Points and Totals @ -107

2 Teams Pays +274
3 Teams Pays +624
4 Teams Pays +1301
5 Teams Pays +2610
6 Teams Pays +5142

buckeye · 06-19-2001, 10:45 PM

Hate to keep disagreeing with you AV2, but canbet unfortunately reverts pointspread parlays to 13-5, 6-1, 10-1, etc. even off of their -107 lines. Believe me, I have tried it! The only way to get -107 included in the parlay is to include at least one $line bet in the parlay. Lots of places do it this way! When you add a $line they then calculate on all -107 $ lines ( or -110 most places ). A few schmucks actually have their s/w use the 13-5 in the computation even with a $line wager thrown in.

ITOPS and willhill and some other Euro-style outs always compute them with $lines, to me this is "fairer"!

GL

AussieVamp2 · 06-19-2001, 10:49 PM

really? never tried them, just read this a while ago, as don't bet them on this stuff much at all, have to have a look

KingOfTheSquares · 06-20-2001, 02:06 AM

Buckeye, nice write up!

I always like to know how much I'm losing in my parlays....

E from OddsTalk.com · 06-20-2001, 04:09 AM

You are talking to the If Win king. Man I love these friggin things. They arent parlays at all really. Ive always used them if first wins or pushes ONLY then activate play #2 (and/or #3). I love these bets but they can really ruin your day. I made HUGE runs with IF bets. I have mentioned this before but never really went into detail. I made $300 into 13k in less than 72 hours and it was heavily because of these. First though I did a 3 teamer and then had 2100, then I was 1000 if plays, then 2000. Didnt take long to build it up, but as the old saying goes, "live by the..., die by the..." So, I went on to give it all back on IF plays and EVERY time the second play would win, it was disgusting, truly and absolutly sickening.

Moral is that its probably best to break the wagers into 2 somehow, but if you can run it up with IF plays then you can really run it up bigtime, more power to you.

also "Yes you can wager more on IF bet #2 as long as its in your acct."

buckeye · 06-20-2001, 06:08 AM

E,
ACTION-To's, as WSEX calls them, and IF-WINS, can be made to approximate parlays if you bet 1, 1.91, 3.65, etc. as the progression, what I call a "let-it-ride" conditional. Barring any pushes, this scheme exactly matches a parlay but will exceed a parlay return for 2,4,5,+ teamers. For three teamers bet this way a parlay will return more. For 4 or more teamers, which I never play, the conditionals are far superior but even the most ardent of parlay supporters wouldn't recommend such plays anyway. For 2 and 3 teamers it is a nominal difference either way.

GL2U

ronscomputer · 06-20-2001, 04:49 PM

Posted by Buckeye-

-------------------------------------------

Ron, your computer needs a tune-up! You state the parlay odds correctly, like 2.6, 6, etc. but the conditional odds are overstated by 1 in EACH case! They should be 2.65, 5.97, etc. ( I round to 2.64 and 5.96 since most books do as well ).

--------------------------------------------

Actually, no the parlay odds are off by 1, not the If Win odds. They are correct. If a 3 Team parlay actually pays you 6 times your bet PLUS your bet back, then it pays 7 to 1 odds. As in a future, if you bet $100 on a 20 to 1 and you win, you recieve $2000 only not $2100. Being as how I dont play parlays, I did not realize that you also recieve your bet back. I thought that a 3 teamer for $100 would pay $600 ( $500 + $100 wager back). However, the point holds true for all parlays at the 4 level or higher. I agree that this is a bad bet, but I know many who consistenly play parlays between 6-12 teams. For these level parlays, my point holds true.

buckeye · 06-20-2001, 08:50 PM

Sorry Ron, you still have TO and FOR confused!

6-1, means six TO one. On a three team parlay you get back 7 at these odds, your 1 stake and 6 profit/win. These are the odds stated by outs for a standard Vegas-style 3 team parlay "off the board". In racing a 2-1 $2 winning ticket pays you back $6, it is the same terminology. A future bet at 20-1, a.k.a. 20 TO 1, would indeed pay you back $2100. If your bookie is phucking you by treating "to" as "for" you need to find an honest out!!! Only rip-off bookies and rip-off "parlay cards" give 5-1 on three teamers. Most parlay cards state the odds as "FOR" so as to confuse those playing into thinking the odds are better ( or at least the same as off the board parlays ). Off the board parlays are stated as TO.

6 FOR 1 means you get back 6 for every 1 bet and thus only 5 win/profit with the 1 returned stake.

Some craps tables rip customers off by stating odds as "FOR" instead of "TO" as well ( AC I believe ), but the number is left the same. This is a terminology difference that all gamblers should understand so as not to get ripped off!

GL2U