An Open Letter to Heath

j · 06-18-2001, 11:53 PM

Dear Heath,

I am one of your fans. I visit your site every couple of days for the well-selected news links. As a poster I sometimes see you as a shoot-from-the-hip fire starter, but what you have to say is almost always provocative, energetic, and clearly stated. ThatÕs why I admire your energy and your passion for this activity that fascinates so many of us.

That said, I'm bummed out about how you asked your question of Pete in an earlier strand:

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Why do the Nascar Lines Suck?

I'm not trying to be flippant, but they suck.

I'm not bitching, I'm just curious.

Its a scientific proven fact -- they suck.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Now the question of why Nascar lines havenÕt been as tight as others over the past year or so is an interesting one, and maybe Pete has some thoughts about this that would help to educate us. He might even know what the Nevada hold on this sport has been over the last fiscal year. But we may never get his information or his thoughts. Pete hasnÕt responded to your question, and how could he? In essence you came in and asked the guy why his organization doesnÕt do a very good job at what it does. They do a good enough job to be the market-leaders, and I donÕt see what you think youÕre accomplishing by bashing them about an area they might improve on.

Perhaps you will say, "Read my whole post! I said I wasnÕt trying to be flippant, and I apologized in advance if he wasnÕt the one doing the lines." But weÕre talking about a tone here. You canÕt insult someone and then take it back and expect it not to register.

When Pete first posted your first sentence of response was: "I've got your presence on this site pegged at about 72 hours max." Well as it happened nobody got into it with Pete, and we might well have looked forward to his comments every week or two as our discussions roll on. IÕm not saying we should wash the guyÕs feet, but I am saying he gets up every morning and supervises line-makers and has a lot of industry experience and I would like to see his presence here cultivated. Like Scotty and JC, heÕs obviously someone whose opinion is worth having and for that reason heÕs someone to be treated with some respect. But you arenÕt doing that. YouÕre trying to ride the guy through the rail. So in the interest of the forum I ask you poster to poster to consider apologizing to him for your manner. I also would like to see you re-ask your question in a way that might lead to some tentative thoughts from BM's grappling with Nascar about why this sport has been hard to put lines on lately.

Sincerely,

j

cash · 06-19-2001, 12:19 AM

J: can't agree more...well said

bbuster · 06-19-2001, 12:52 AM

Heath- It seems you often attack/accuse first then get your facts straight after. Why not trying the other way, its more people friendly and you don't come off like such an ass/idiot/moron/shit stir it upper.

In reality LVSC plays a very small role in Nascar. They post a future book early in the week, then they post 6 or so matchups Saturday morning after qualifying. The LVSC matchups haven't been on the Donbest screen all year, unless they just happen to have one that mntches the screen. The early ones on the screen come from Stations and the Dust and then Mirage adds a few after qualifying, then the offshores put lines up on those matchups. As someone who follows Nascar, I can tell you there are more non-screen matchups available then there are screen matchups and also IMO it is not easy money anymore, the opening lines are better, the steam doesn't move as far and win at the same rate compared to a year or 2 ago.

frog · 06-19-2001, 01:11 AM

I'm not trying to be flippant, but they suck.

what is flippant?

MarkDel · 06-19-2001, 01:43 AM

Guys,

You can question Heath's confrontational style all you want...however...DOES ANYONE REALLY QUESTION THAT HE WAS SAID WAS THE TRUTH???

THE NASCAR LINES DOOOOOOOOO SUCK.

Our "hold" on Nascar last week was -22.2% which dropped our overall "hold" on Nascar to "only" -18.7%. Now do WE need to get sharper on this sport, yes we do, but nobody's lines were really all that different from ours, so they must be getting killed to. I HATE this sport now...it is like a freakin' MAC MACHINE for the players.

I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR
I HATE NASCAR

bbuster · 06-19-2001, 02:03 AM

Mark- With all due respect, 3 or 4 weeks of results are in reality meaningless.

Melvin · 06-19-2001, 02:17 AM

Baseball is usually slow, boring and tough, but if you add this numbers coming from Nascar, you can start thinking that Skepticism is a Virtue

MarkDel · 06-19-2001, 03:08 AM

Bbuster,

I'll bet you 5 dimes that by the end of the year 2001, Camelot will have a negative hold in Nascar. I know what you're saying in terms of not having enough samples for statistical relevance, but from what I've seen, my lines SUCK and they are no worse than the rest of the sportsbooks out there. Each week, I study this garbage more and more...I post my lines later and later...and I still lose. I'm obviously NOT sharp at this stuff and NOBODY on my side of the aisle is much better either. This sport TRULY is an example of the usually overrated theory that all of the "talent" is on the player side these days. In this case, the only talent is the players.

And I'm this pissed off with only $300 limits on Nascar...I can't imagine how much I would have lost so far if I was willing to take bets...real wiseguy-sized bets on this sport rather than having such low limits. I think the limits should get dropped to $100 after a few more bad weeks. (LOL)

Peter North · 06-19-2001, 03:14 AM

NASCAR is no different than other periphial sports. The sharp will always beat the book as long as the home work is done. Ask any bookmaker and they hate boxing, especially South American or Mexican based fighters. The fans in most situations, know the sport much better than the book and will beat them all the time.

NASCAR is a new sport, so I my humble opinion the bookmaker is still playing catchup. Do your work, you get an A. Don't study, expect to lose week after week.

PN

bbuster · 06-19-2001, 03:27 AM

Peter- Are you the real deal? Been wondering for a while. What are you doing in a sports gambling forum? The chicks dried up?
I will make you a deal I'll teach you how to beat Nascar and you teach me how to pick up/attract gorgeous model/porno women. What do you say?

Peter North · 06-19-2001, 03:29 AM

BB,

We are on...

bbuster · 06-19-2001, 03:32 AM

Mark- I agree with you that you will lose for the year, but I would take the 5 dime bet that your hold % will be less than -10%, not in the upper teens.
I am kinda serious and kinda razing you, keep the faith my friend it will turn around I guarantee you wont hold worse than -15 % over the season

bbuster · 06-19-2001, 03:36 AM

Peter my email is bbuster74@hotmail.com, drop me a line

MarkDel · 06-19-2001, 03:50 AM

BBuster,

I would agree...somewhere in the area of -5 to -10 % which is ludicrous.

Peter North,

Come on now...are you trying to say that you are the REAL Peter North? If so, tell me who Matt Ramsey was...

[This message has been edited by MarkDel (edited 06-18-2001).]

KingOfTheSquares · 06-19-2001, 03:54 AM

Hey Peter,

Line me up with your chicks and I'll show you how to run optimized regressions lines...

bbuster · 06-19-2001, 03:56 AM

Hey chill out guys, I have first dibs on getting Peter's expertise! LOL

Peter North · 06-19-2001, 03:58 AM

Gents,

And I use the term losely, keep it down. The North will take care of all his good gambling buddies. We can hook up at the convention in Vegas in the Fall. All the fine chicks will be there.

PN

heath · 06-19-2001, 04:17 AM

J,

Glad you like my site.

Thanks.

However, I don't accept any of the premises of your post:

Pete did reply (sort of) to my question (recheck the thread). He replied in the same, lame, Bill Clinton, "Um, Nascar and Golf lines, who, us??" style that's been indicative of his arrival. He responded the same way when I asked him if he follows the smart money, why a room full of people that have dedicated their lives to sports betting (LVSC) always get hammered by the smart money, etc.

Like MANY of the people in these forums, Pete's knowledge is tremendous but he's NOT COMING OFF a single piece of it with his answers.

As far as his presence here: He is a tale, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

You also said:
<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>I don't see what you think you're accomplishing by bashing them about an area they might improve on<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I've stated OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER again that I think they put out a good line -- especially how early their original numbers go out. I just want to know who is responsible for the Nascar and Golf, etc.

Bbuster,

No offense, but you are wrong too. <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Heath- It seems you often attack/accuse first then get your facts straight after. Why not trying the other way, its more people friendly and you don't come off like such an ass/idiot/moron/shit stir it upper. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I said in my original post (paraphrasing) "If these aren't your numbers, then I apologize in advance".

Evidently there is this whole community of people out there that think they're stealing something in the NASCAR and Golf -- they have fooled themselves into thinking its some sort of National Secret that the Nascar/Golf lines are weak.

I had an email from someone telling me how dumb I was for making this "public". In the other thread, someone told me "keep it to myself" or something equally as idiotic.

I wrote the guy back (that emailed me) and told him that next week I'm doing an expose on another carefully guarded secret -- water and its associative wetness.

Bbuster, why would you care what I say or how I ask it?

The computer is the most Democractic devicethe world has ever known. Don't like the threads I start?? The next time you see one:
---> DON'T CLICK ON IT <---

God gave us all free will, don't piss him off by not using it, then bitch about its consequences (reading me).

Your post was interesting, though -- especially if this is true:

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>In reality LVSC plays a very small role in Nascar. They post a future book early in the week, then they post 6 or so matchups Saturday morning after qualifying. The LVSC matchups haven't been on the Donbest screen all year, unless they just happen to have one that mntches the screen. The early ones on the screen come from Stations and the Dust and then Mirage adds a few after qualifying, then the offshores put lines up on those matchups. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I didn't know this, and it was basically what I was trying to find out.

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>I can tell you there are more non-screen matchups available then there are screen matchups and also IMO it is not easy money anymore, the opening lines are better, the steam doesn't move as far and win at the same rate compared to a year or 2 ago.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I believe this to a be a lie and propoganda and the impetuous for your post.

-------------

As an aside, I know that Heath bashing is fun and easy because I'm a professional controversialist and The Worlds Greatest Part Time Web Whore, but next time employ a fact checker before blasting me.

Professional Golf and Nascar Bettors, Quit Jammin' Me...
Heath

[This message has been edited by heath (edited 06-19-2001).]

bbuster · 06-19-2001, 04:17 AM

Peter, buddy, are you sure you can wait that long, that is at least 15 Nascar races away from now. Think of all the $'s you could make from now till then. I got a book called " How to make $ betting Nascar" it is $19.95 kinda of a how to book like yours "Penetrating Insight's".