An Open Letter to Heath

[sandwedge]

markdel -

come on, don't hold back...tell us how you really feel about nascar.

this week's race is on a road course so it will be signficantly different as the circuit moves to the heart of redneck country, sonoma california. maybe you should have a "without Jeff Gordon" futures pool as some books did with Tiger in the US Open.

btw nascar is my favorite sport to wager on

[heath]

Mark,

I know you'll sleep better tonight knowing you won't hold in the NEGATIVE double-digits in Nascar this year.

I've been fortunate enough to earn the trust of a couple of BMs and they all tell me the lines are a flat out joke.

The funniest thing is the part about how thrilled you ought to be that you won't hold "less than -10%".

A statement made by the same guy stating that "the opening lines are better, the steam doesn't move as far and win at the same rate compared to a year or 2 ago.".

Good thing you didn't come along 2 years ago, huh?

Give me a break.

[bbuster]

Heath- The impetous of my post was not propoganda. It was a mixture of boredom,nothing to do on a Monday night and to educate an uneducated webwhore.
I think in the real world and in the web whore world you are a sharp, knowledgable guy. However in the sports betting world you are an uneducated neophyte who surmises his knowledge based on someone else saying "lakers -3 1/2, houston -115, and over 9 -110".
I don't think you want to learn or get educated you just want to hammer your point of view relentlessly with no regard for whether it being right or wrong..
I am through giving a f$%* what you believe about Nascar and Golf betting. All I am saying is you need to bet it yourself and follow it yourself to know what is going on and how much candy money there is or isn't. It is like any other sport the sharpest players will beat the sharpest bookmakers/linemakers. IMO it is like that stat 10% of the population has 90% of the wealth, well I think it is pretty close to 10% of the people betting are winning 90% of the money. So for the masses the lines are getting tougher.
Im done educating, I will crawl back into my hole and admire your webhore propoganda from a far. - Adios

[heath]

J,

You said <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>So in the interest of the forum I ask you poster to poster to consider apologizing to him for your manner. I also would like to see you re-ask your question in a way that might lead to some tentative thoughts from BM's grappling with Nascar about why this sport has been hard to put lines on lately<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I don't belong to you.

You are a socalist (whats in the "best interest of this forum" -- sounds like Lenin to me)

I respectively ask (but not demand) that you no longer visit my site because it pisses me off that all that work I do goes to benefit a a transparently phoney Communist with a 'I'm-your-mother-and-apologize-to-that-man--RIGHT-NOW!' complex.

Take your "How To Win Friends and Influence People", Charm-School antics along with all the self-deluded dignity and decorum stuff that comes with it some place else.

That Dale Carnegie shit got played out like 20 years ago.

Heath

[This message has been edited by heath (edited 06-19-2001).]

[bbuster]

I could'nt resist one last post.

"I've been fortunate enough to earn the trust of a couple of BMs and they all tell me the lines are a flat out joke."

This from the same guy that spews that you can't take anything the BM's say as true, that they always whine about getting beat and how much they are losing.

I guess we are to believe that this time it is true and all the others times it is false, surprise surprise, how F#&^%#*& convenient!

[heath]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by bbuster:
I could'nt resist one last post.

"I've been fortunate enough to earn the trust of a couple of BMs and they all tell me the lines are a flat out joke."

This from the same guy that spews that you can't take anything the BM's say as true, that they always whine about getting beat and how much they are losing.

I guess we are to believe that this time it is true and all the others times it is false, surprise surprise, how F#&^%#*& convenient!

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I'm talking about people I consider my FRIENDS vs. some random BM like that wacko Yakov telling us the sky is falling.

Nice try, but you are 0 for 2.

You are also 100% wrong about me.

I am not pounding any point of view (I don't have a point of view other than my spirituality and the belief in personal freedom and responsibility) --

I am here asking questions because I want to learn. I think you are a sharp guy but attacking me because I assumed (you are the ONLY PERSON to ever disagree) that the Nascar lines are bad is nuts -- it makes you look the the guy that emailed me and was pissed off because he thought I took his meal ticket away from him.


[This message has been edited by heath (edited 06-19-2001).]

[bbuster]

Heath- Allright you gpt I will take the hook! You say you ask the question because you want to learn, however when I answered your question you invalidated the response, because it wasn't the response you wanted to hear. That sounds like an agenda to me.
Since you are on a quest for knowledge and I am being Nascar Santa Claus(jk) tonight. The reason I believe Nascar is tougher is that there are 10-15 contenders week in and week out this year to win a race,it is a term refereed to in the NFL as Parity. Anybody can beat anybody. In the past it seemed week in and week out there were more like 3-5 contenders for the win. I personally have stopped betting the future book because of this. Just this past week you could make a case for Jarrett,Rudd, Gordon, Mayfield, Wallace, Stewart being solid contenders for the win, you have a few more long shot contenders like Sterling Marlin, Earn Jr. , B Labonte, Kenseth, Martin and J Burton. Well if you look at the odds 4 of the 6 guys in the group were between 4 and 8 after qualifying and Kenseth was the only guy in the whole group at a consensus higher than 12 to 15-1.
As far as the matchups you have less of a disparity between the best drivers(until Gordon went on his tear) and in the middle of the road group you have 10-15 guys that can go back and forth beating each other. PARITY, anyway those are the reasons why I believe what I believe.
You believe what you believe because why? Oh, because Someone told you, I understand.

[Bookiebar]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by heath:
it makes you look the the guy that emailed me and was pissed off because he thought I took his meal ticket away from him.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Educating the masses can only ever be a bad thing.

If the bookmakers and the wiseguys have the same info, are the wiseguys still wise?

[heath]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by bbuster:
Heath-
You believe what you believe because why? Oh, because Someone told you, I understand.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You are like 0 for 5 now.

I believe what I believe because when a game moves 15 cents on the screen (NASCAR OR GOLF), the move has got a REAL BAD HABIT of getting the money.

This is reinforced by the people I talk to in private, and even TheWig sez the NASCAR steam is best ever and REALITY sez all the BMs "swear to a man" that they are lifetime losers to Golf and NASCAR.

Add it all up, and you've got a real big pile of evidence to jump over in order to get to your argument.

But, you reject my/our premise anyway (that the lines are bad).

Fine, I can handle that. Then you blither on endlessly about your belly and how much it ache's after reading my threads. You tell me how disgusted you are that I'm such an unitiatated neophyte.

I may not be as sharp as you, but this guy I know wrote this book and thought enough of my little-too-close-too-reality description (posted here months ago) of the "stall" to put it in his new book but you probably won't bother to read it since its called "Telling Lies and Getting Paid" and you probably know everything in it anway. Besides, the stuff from me is all a fairy tales anyway, right? After all -- once we get beyond "Houston -3, Atlanta -140" I'm pretty much lost anyway aren't it?

You do, in fact get a BIG PAT ON THE BACK FROM me (a la The Flat Earth Society) for being brave enough to actually reject the statement that the Nascar lines are bad.

Thanks for taking me to school, professor. Maybe one day I'll know all about why the Nascar lines aren't really bad and how the Trilateral Commission has deployed a massive consipiracy to fool all the bookmakers (and anyone else that watches the screen) into believing that indeed, the Golf and Nascar lines are horrid when the truth (so sayeth BBuster) is the exact opposite.

Hook Line and Sinker,
Heath

[AussieVamp2]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by heath:
I am not pounding any point of view (I don't have a point of view other than my spirituality and the belief in personal freedom and responsibility) --
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Sure...... everyone that disagrees with you is a Socialist or Communist - something that went out in the 50s, eh?

[heath]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by AussieVamp2:
Sure...... everyone that disagrees with you is a Socialist or Communist - something that went out in the 50s, eh? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Communism went out in the 50s or labelling everyone a communist went out in the 50s?

[bbuster]

Heath- Since you are so convinced how great the players are in Nascar and how the moves win you should be more than willing to put up some of your hard earned webwhore $ and bet the plays for yourself. Sit there in front of the screen and play everything that moves and after 100 plays report back to us and let us know your actual results instead of your bullshit conjecture. I would be willing to bet(I know I am wasting my time/breath/words) that you will be a loser unless you are getting the plays from the originator and getting the original number. Remember the 90/10 rule? but that is not the thesis of your argument, your thesis is something like anybody and everybody is beating Nascar because the lines are SO WEAK. Why not cash in yourself if you truly believe????

[heath]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by bbuster:
Heath- Since you are so convinced how great the players are in Nascar and how the moves win you should be more than willing to put up some of your hard earned webwhore $ and bet the plays for yourself. Sit there in front of the screen and play everything that moves and after 100 plays report back to us and let us know your actual results instead of your bullshit conjecture. I would be willing to bet(I know I am wasting my time/breath/words) that you will be a loser unless you are getting the plays from the originator and getting the original number. Remember the 90/10 rule? but that is not the thesis of your argument, your thesis is something like anybody and everybody is beating Nascar because the lines are SO WEAK. Why not cash in yourself if you truly believe???? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

1. Its not **my** conjecture. You are the only dissent (see flat earth society comment earlier) but its a lot easier to pick on me than to call MarkDel, TheWig or REALITY a liar. You can sleep better at night knowing I forgive you for this transgression.

2. Why bother with the steam when I can bet the mailing list guy who is up 270 units in a season in a half?

3. I merely suspected, but now I'm convinced -- you and J are married, I just can't figure out who the woman is. He wants me to apologize and ask again nicely and you insist on telling me what to do with my money.

How was the honeymoon? Is married life all its cracked up to be?

Lighten up.

There is a stadium full of bookmakers proclaiming the NASCAR and GOLF lines are bad. Why don't you have this conversation with them as well?

Heath
BTW -- its PART TIME web-whore -- get it straight please.

[MarkDel]

BBuster,

You and I have talked several times on the phone...have you ever spoken to a more open or more blunt bookie before? Well, I am telling you truthfully that I have incurred significant rectal damage from Nascar since we opened...and I can't afford rectal damage since the doctors already chopped out that nice 18-inch piece of would-be colon cancer out of me last year!!!

Seriously man, I jack up those lines as soon as the "move" is recognizable and they DO NOT CARE, they keep betting it even at the bad number and they win around 70% of the time. Granted, their overall profit is reduced by my jacking up the lines on favorites, but they still KILL me with this stuff.

A few bookies may be too prideful to admit it, but this Nascar is TRULY ridiculous as a money loser.

[TheVig]

Teath:
This guy BBUSTER just doesnt get it,the Nascar steam is the best thing going today!!!Race days,the sign is up "free Money",those who have the info will prosper!

[Pete K]

First of all, to J. (and others) thank you...

Second, I think Heath should be allowed to say anything he wants. I am neither offended or repulsed, rather, often amused by his replies and beefs. He's obviously someone who knows a thing or two about the industry but may not know the genesis of how things work from our perpective, hence, his two cents worth.

Opinions are opinions and are more relective of the poster than the subject matter. But I'll try to answer anyone's questions and address facts (which Heath has pointed out many times) the best I can.

I apologized from my very first post that I probably would be as politically correct on most matters, and that may not address some heavily weighted questions the way they were intended.

Again, thanks to those who said what they said. I'm just trying to respond from LVSC's POV.

[heath]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by TheVig:
Teath:
This guy BBUSTER just doesnt get it,the Nascar steam is the best thing going today!!!Race days,the sign is up "free Money",those who have the info will prosper!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Vig,

That's what it seems like to me as well -- that the steam wins and its not even close -- ever.

I don't think there can be much serious debate over the quality of these numbers. Maybe Bbuster can't beat it anymore or maybe he's trying to protect his livelihood or maybe he's the guy that puts the numbers out and he's offended, I dunno.

I think LVSC puts out a good line, and if they aren't responsible for the NASCAR then maybe someone ought to consider hiring them to do them.

Anyway, I was just curious about their origins but everytime I open my mouth a riot insues.

Thanks for your candor.
Heath

[bbuster]

Heath- Only one little problem with the "I will just bet the plays of the guy who is up 270 units". He is nice enough(or stupid depends how you look at it) to post his plays, but he does so after he gets down, he bets early and often the numbers he gets are not available. This is a radical example, but it is true last week he played Schrader Ev vs K Busch, well after qualifying the line was Schrader -200 or so. Also the numbers he gets in the futures are better than what the masses can get by the time the posts are up. I would honestly say for 1/3 to 1/2 his matchups if you want to blindly follow you will lay 20-25 cents a worse price. See how fast that eats in to your net units, also this week he played Rudd to win the race at 12-1 for 4 units he won 27 units net after losing 21 units on the other 5 or so drivers. Well let me tell you 12-1 was like looking for a needle in a haystack after qualifying by the time his post was up, read the Rudd/Pocono thread started by someone else, people were playing as low as 5-1, 8-1 would have been probably what a blind follower would be playing. Well lets see at 8-1 your up 5 units, at 5-1 your down 2 units! but WTF I don't understand this is the great Nascar Steam that never loses, I don't understand I am playing the same plays this guy is and at the end of the season he is up 100 units and your scratching your head wondering I don't understand, its not fair, I thought I could make free candy money.
In regards to Vig's response I would weigh more credence to anything he says than you, because he has ACTUAL EXPERIENCE, however I think he is still having nightmares from a year or 2 ago. Just like some bookies mumbling crap about NBA totals, how the players destroy them and Chuck Sharp yada yada, that was a f$&#(*# decade ago. It has changed it is okay, you can take a bet now on it!!!!

[heath]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by bbuster:
Heath- Only one little problem with the "I will just bet the plays of the guy who is up 270 units". He is nice enough(or stupid depends how you look at it) to post his plays, but he does so after he gets down, he bets early and often the numbers he gets are not available. This is a radical example, but it is true last week he played Schrader Ev vs K Busch, well after qualifying the line was Schrader -200 or so. Also the numbers he gets in the futures are better than what the masses can get by the time the posts are up. I would honestly say for 1/3 to 1/2 his matchups if you want to blindly follow you will lay 20-25 cents a worse price. See how fast that eats in to your net units, also this week he played Rudd to win the race at 12-1 for 4 units he won 27 units net after losing 21 units on the other 5 or so drivers. Well let me tell you 12-1 was like looking for a needle in a haystack after qualifying by the time his post was up, read the Rudd/Pocono thread started by someone else, people were playing as low as 5-1, 8-1 would have been probably what a blind follower would be playing. Well lets see at 8-1 your up 5 units, at 5-1 your down 2 units! but WTF I don't understand this is the great Nascar Steam that never loses, I don't understand I am playing the same plays this guy is and at the end of the season he is up 100 units and your scratching your head wondering I don't understand, its not fair, I thought I could make free candy money.
In regards to Vig's response I would weigh more credence to anything he says than you, because he has ACTUAL EXPERIENCE, however I think he is still having nightmares from a year or 2 ago. Just like some bookies mumbling crap about NBA totals, how the players destroy them and Chuck Sharp yada yada, that was a f$&#(*# decade ago. It has changed it is okay, you can take a bet now on it!!!!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I appreciate your input on this and I never was naive enough to believe the Nascar guy was up a legit 200 units anyway.

I never claimed to have any experience -- I see the games steam and win, I hear BM after BM tell me how bad the lines are and how they get beat on it year in and year out and I made the ASSUMPTION (which I stand by) that the lines are no good.

Even you told MarkDel not to worry, he won't hold less than -10% on this stuff.

Maybe holding -10% is your idea of stuff "you can take a bet on", and I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.