How I am playing ND - LSU

Domer · 01-03-2007, 06:59 AM

$1910 LSU 1H -191 (Pinnacle)
$1100 ND +8.5 -110 (SIA)
$350 ND +290 (Matchbook)

I am going for two wins here, and possibly three if ND can pull this out. I'm banking on LSU beating us with speed in the first half and Minter/Weis working their second half adjustment magic. If by some miracle, ND is leading at halftime, I'm hedging out that ND +290...hopefully at 1-1 odds.

Some stats to chew on...notable ND away games in the first half:

2006
Georgia Tech 10 - Notre Dame 7
Michigan State 31 - Notre Dame 14
USC 21 - Notre Dame 10

Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State 21 - Notre Dame 7

For whatever reason, the plan hasn't been very good coming into the game...even with plenty of time to prepare - USC - ND, Georgia Tech - ND, Ohio State - ND.

By the same token, the second half adjustments have been spectacular. If ND is getting points in the second half, take it.

2nd half:
ND 14 - USC 16 (I'm taking off the fluke onside return at the end)
ND 10 - UCLA 3
ND 26 - Mich State 6
ND 7 - Michigan 13
ND 7 - Georgia Tech 0
ND 13 - Ohio State 13 (was actually much closer than this due to a bad call)

Lots of field goals, not very many TDs in the second half even by the elite offenses (even OSU's 2nd half TD was flukey). By the same token, we have scored a TD in every one of those games, even on "great" defenses.

I'm envisioning a box score very similar to this:

1st half: LSU 17 - Notre Dame 10
2nd half: LSU 13 - Notre Dame 17

LSU 30 - ND 27

Mr Memory · 01-03-2007, 08:56 AM

Very interesting . . . and may affect my hedge strategy in this game. Tks.

johnnyboyConn · 01-03-2007, 10:45 AM

Good stuff domer, interesting second half numbers.

blogguy · 01-03-2007, 04:37 PM

Domer, I was wondering how you get Notre Dame to 17 points in the second half based on your list. If you exclude the Michigan State game (which was a a bad team with a horrible defense), you get this versus teams who play some defense (cutting and pasting your list):

ND 14 - USC 16 (I'm taking off the fluke onside return at the end)
ND 10 - UCLA 3
ND 7 - Michigan 13
ND 7 - Georgia Tech 0
ND 13 - Ohio State 13 (was actually much closer than this due to a bad call)

That's 51 points in five games for a 10.2 average, with a median of 10 and a peak of 14. Is it your thinking that LSU's defense is worse than that composite?

It looks like the adjustment magic is more on defense than offense. Notre Dame would have been in single digits scoring in three of the five games if not for the last second scoring drive against UCLA. What weak spots are you seeing in the LSU defense that allowed single digits in the second half in 9 of 12 games this year? Or your projecting a garbage time game where its easier to score from behind (which didn't work out in the Michigan game, but may have been a factor in the 44-24 loss at USC?

Just wondering how the pieces fit. Good luck with your plays...blg

Domer · 01-03-2007, 05:16 PM

I'm trying to roughly match it up with the O/U lines.

Exact number of pts really doesn't matter to me here...just arbitrary figures to come to the conclusion of what I perceive will be the point differential.

RE: hedging. Normally I wouldn't because ND would have the lead and obviously the +290 would be huge. But we also have a grand total of 1"big" game (PSU) in the past 12 months where ND was leading at half. So the reasoning would be uncertainty about how the team would play with the lead in a very hostile environment. No clue how the playcalling would go.

I also like this position because I'm immune from line movements with dual positions. First time Ive ever played a game this way but I am confident about this one or I wouldn't have bothered posting.

blogguy · 01-03-2007, 05:53 PM

Hmm, let me ask it this way then. Why do you think the second half adjustments were "spectacular" when:

They didn't cover the second half against USC
They didn't cover the second half against Michigan
They didn't cover the second half against UCLA

And they scored an average and median of just 10 points per half even though they were facing garbage time pass defenses in the blowout losses to USC, Michigan, and Ohio State?

If you throw out the Michigan State game because it's not an opponent reflective of this current sample or tonight's challenge:

ND was 0-5 ATS in first halves
ND was 2-3 ATS in second halves

I can see going against ND in the first half as you've suggested. I'm not getting that ND in the second half is a great percentage play. If they are, it's because of the defensive adjustments I think based on your data. The offense has been surprisingly dormant in second halfs. I could see taking ND as a dog in the second half via your instructions because the data projects to a 10-10 tie...not a 17-10 Notre Dame win. Is ND going to be a 2nd half dog if they've fallen way behind? It might be closer to pick-em because people like betting the comebacks with big name teams.

Will be fun to watch. Good luck with your plays...blg

Domer · 01-03-2007, 06:34 PM

I think we're confusing the issue here. My play in the game is LSU 1st half, which I believe is the largest edge on the board.

I'm piggy backing on top of that two wagers for ND in order to both minimize risk for the first half wager and to maximize potential profit by what I believe will be a strong second half by Notre Dame. I am not overly exposed to a large loss here unless ND is leading by 1 point at the end of the first half (2 points would be ND +10.5 for 2H).

The second half spread to me is irrelevent, as I am already indirectly betting the line right now with this straddle.

blogguy · 01-03-2007, 07:34 PM

Not confused at all. I'm just saying I don't think the evidence supports second half magic from Notre Dame.

I get that a Notre Dame cover partially hedges the first half bet...and that an upset by Notre Dame makes up for a first half LSU loss. If Notre Dame falls way behind and doesn't rally...which happened in the losses to Michigan and USC, then you've lost $450 or whatever even though your best play on the board won. If they fall way behind in the half, then you may be throwing away that $1,000 by asking a team that is averaging just 10 second half points per game versus this approximate caliber of defense to cover at +8.5 for the game.

There's no evidence that ND offers value in second halves. This hurts your hedge if you're correct that they're going to fall way behind, even if you're not betting the second half. There's not much evidence vs. top competition that you're going to get the rally that gives you a chance to win the two big bets. That is a tasty home run to shoot for I admit.

If you tried this at USC, which is the only time ND was a dog like this, you would have nailed the first half right on the nose and still lost $450 on the night.

If you had tried this vs. Ohio State in last year's bowl, you would have nailed the first half but still lost $450 on the game.

On the off chance that ND would have been an 8-point home dog to Michigan, same thing.

ND has to rally 1 out of 4.5 times to break even I guess...if you assume that LSU never loses a first half. They'd probably lose some. Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Boston College, Texas Tech, South Carolina, and Clemson are all favorites of 5 or more who lost their first halves. Favorites of 5 or more for the game are 1-7 straight up the last eight times! Only Louisville won their first half as a big favorite within the most recent hunk of games. There's no guarantee the superior team will show up breathing fire.

I agree that LSU in 1H straight up makes a lot of sense (though, what does that even mean in bowls?). I'm not sure if the best way to take advantage of that is to put yourself in position to lose $450 as a best expectation chasing that $2,000 middle, or the home run if LSU wins the first half but loses the game.

If LSU in the 1H is the best play on the board, I might have arranged it so that the 1H victory locks in a profit, and the hedge stuff puts you in position to win more. Not that the hedge stuff has a chance of taking away the entire profit and giving me a loss. I'm concerned that a misperception about Weis's magical second half abilities encouraged you to put too many of the eggs on the middle potential, without benefitting enough from the first half analysis if you hit that.

Can LSU lose the first half and rallly to cover the game? We're not seeing much of that in the bowls. If it happens though, that's more than a three dime hit. It definitely can happen to defenses who have a physical disadvantage.

To me, you're risking a three dime disaster to hit a two-dime middle (that could have a bigger home run if ND loses the first half but wins the game outright) where the outcome that best matches similar samples is a $450 loss (LSU wins the first half on the way to a cover in the fashion of Michigan and USC).

That's all I'm saying. I try to protect the thing I like best in hedges. Doesn't mean it's the right approach.

Best of luck with it! blg

Praesto · 01-03-2007, 07:59 PM

Im with blog.. if notre dame can hang tough in the first half, and get hammered in the 2nd half (As they usually do).. then you will lose all bets.

1st half: LSU 17 - Notre Dame 10
2nd half: LSU 13 - Notre Dame 17

Worst case scenario:

1st half: Notre Dame 17- LSU 14
2nd half: LSU 21- ND 7

Final 35-24-- LSU

Lose/lose/lose

Praesto · 01-03-2007, 07:59 PM

Im with blog.. if notre dame can hang tough in the first half, and get hammered in the 2nd half (As they usually do).. then you will lose all bets.

1st half: LSU 17 - Notre Dame 10
2nd half: LSU 13 - Notre Dame 17

Worst case scenario:

1st half: Notre Dame 17- LSU 14
2nd half: LSU 21- ND 7

Final 35-24-- LSU

Lose/lose/lose

Praesto · 01-03-2007, 07:59 PM

Im with blog.. if notre dame can hang tough in the first half, and get hammered in the 2nd half (As they usually do).. then you will lose all bets.

1st half: LSU 17 - Notre Dame 10
2nd half: LSU 13 - Notre Dame 17

Worst case scenario:

1st half: Notre Dame 17- LSU 14
2nd half: LSU 21- ND 7

Final 35-24-- LSU

Lose/lose/lose