NFL Computer Picks

StarnetGypsy · 10-05-2006, 09:34 AM

This is something my Army bro an me do each year on our little gaming network. He's overseas, so he's not concerned too much w/getting his sportsbets placed, and he has an e-gold account as well.

Just for S&G tho, I've called them "fantasy picks" for prying eyes [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

Fantasy picks article Some of you guys might know JBHarshaw as he was posting on the Pokah site for years.

We'll have them every week until the playoffs (computer hates the playoffs), and in years past we've averaged about 70%

Disclaimer: This is just for fun [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

GL & enjoy the games this weekend!

p.s. Major - if you'd rather I not do this, I'm easy ...

jackyl · 10-05-2006, 03:16 PM

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>and in years past we've averaged about 70%</end quote></div>

I'll believe that when I see it! But, since you said this is just for fun, I'll be interested to see what you've got going here!

StarnetGypsy · 10-05-2006, 03:55 PM

Jackyl (great handle) [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

Understood, and thanks.

Last year we really really sucked w/only about a 55%+ margin. Not really sure yet what happened there, but considering the Seahawks were in the SB, I'm sure you can figure that out - the world was upside down [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

The year before that when all the favorites were killing the books, we were 70%.

The first couple years we did it (the 2/before that) we were 60% to 70%.

Each year that I played my own picks and the computer picks, I finished the year in the plus column.

To be honest tho, I have more faith in my picks than the puter picks, and at the start of this year I made a modest deposit, and by the end of the pre-season I'd doubled my deposit - now playing w/house money.

Myself, I'm pretty good on ML picks and teasers, and I enjoy doing the "Inside the NFL" ML picks on HoBO. Two years ago I finished in the top 1% of the 60,000 players. This is the link to my skill site that shows where last year I'd said both my friend an I had beaten Dan Marino who'd finished in 1st place - Skillbet - Inside NFL

I try to be as honest as possible? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

StarnetGypsy · 10-09-2006, 07:23 PM

Jackyl ..

As I said previously, I have more faith in my picks than my bros computer picks which are looking pretty good so far. I do bet his picks, but def buy points, and never (NEVER) have the bet higher than -2.5

Here is the status on his computer picks going into tonites MNF game.

KC -3 vs Arizona PUSH
Bal +4 vs Denver TBD
NO -6.5 vs Tampa Bay LOSS (but woulda won at -2.5)
SD -3 vs Pittsburgh WIN

(had these bets been at -2.5, they all would have hit, pending tonites game) [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

I'm thinking the Broncs may win by 3? I sure hope so because then I hit my ML 4/team parlay:

Chiefs WIN
Eagles WIN
Chargers WIN
Broncos TBD

Juice · 10-09-2006, 07:57 PM

If you need a new programmer, we know of one you could use. You must promise to post the plays ahead of time. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

StarnetGypsy · 10-09-2006, 09:07 PM

Juice ..

I did, and will continue too on my website & here [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

StarnetGypsy · 10-10-2006, 03:40 AM

LOL

Well, the computer was 50%

KC -3 vs Arizona PUSH
Bal +4 vs Denver LOSS
NO -6.5 vs Tampa Bay LOSS
SD -3 vs Pittsburgh WIN

(had these bets been at -2.5 as I usually suggest, it'd be 75%)

I'm 100% - hit my ML parlay:

Chiefs WIN
Eagles WIN
Chargers WIN
Broncos WIN

drunkguy · 10-10-2006, 03:51 AM

1-2-1 is 50%?

and 2-2 is 75%?

man, it's been too long since i took math i guess...

Juice · 10-10-2006, 04:04 AM

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: StarnetGypsy

Juice ..

I did, and will continue too on my website & here [img][/img]</end quote></div>

I was talking about a former posters programmer. Legendary out right fade, year after year acording to the history here.

StarnetGypsy · 10-10-2006, 04:22 AM

DrunkGuy ..

Wasn't sure how a 'push' would tally. if you bet 4/teams, and hit 3 plus a push, you get paid on 3 instead of 4, so I counted it as a hit.

Whenever he gives me picks, i bet them at -2.5, and not the 3 he's calling. That being the case

KC -2.5 WIN
NO -2.5 WIN
SD -2.5 WIN
Bal +4 LOSS

hence, 75%

Taking his puter picks at face value however, you are definately right. His puter sucked this week [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

I on the other hand have hit my 4/team parlays the past two weeks, and doubled my account during pre-season, but they've all been teasers or ML's. I really don't care betting the spread because as we all know, it favors the books.

What I may do DrunkGuy is post my thoughts on his picks as a notation after his article, stating that teasing them is probably a good idea?

Actually, in years past he used to suggest buying a half point. Not sure why he didn't this time except that because he was preparing for a quick trip to the states, he may've overlooked it?

StarnetGypsy · 10-10-2006, 04:24 AM

Oh, OK Juice ..

I wasn't quite clear on what you were saying the first time.

My apologies.

shoebox · 10-10-2006, 04:38 AM

Starnet, you are fairly new here so i will go a little easy, but laying -2.5 on Tbay is a bit of a stretch no??

I mean the game closed -7, LOL

Pretty easy to hit 75% if u get lines from the tooth fairy and lay -2.5 on every game, no matter what line is available.

StarnetGypsy · 10-10-2006, 05:01 AM

Ha!

Got me there ShoeBox. Major brainfart on my part. Not sure what I was thinking, except I was watching TV and trying to keep up w/too many threads in too many places [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-blush.gif[/img]

OK, 50% if they were -2.5 on the -3 games.

I wouldn't touch a -6.5 game, regardless, and I really didn't want to defend his computer's picks.

He's an enjoyable read, understands poker very well, and averaged over a season, does very well on the picks.

Thanks for being 'gentle' [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

Week 5 = 25%

StarnetGypsy · 10-12-2006, 10:54 PM

Well, still waiting on the computer picks by Sarge, but he's still traveling around the states playing poker, so he may get them to me by tonite.

So far the computer is sucking rocks, as was my math skills. Not sure the puter will recover from such a poor week, but at least I took an online 6th grade math refresher course [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

Computer Week 5 = 25%

And my ML 4/parlay last week hit.

SG Week 5 = 100%

I'll put my ML 4/parlay now and when Sarge sends his picks in add them in.

Bengals -240
@ Bucs

Eagles -180
@ Saints

@ Jets -135
Dolphins

@ Steelers -330
Chiefs

StarnetGypsy · 10-15-2006, 07:47 AM

Well, it's pretty late out here on the left-coast, and I've yet to get the picks from Sarge. If they're here when I wake up in the a/m, I'll post them but I've a feeling he's going head-to-head in a poker game somewhere and he's going to blank this week on the sports picks ...

Hopefully I dont .. heheh [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

How'd your picks finally end up DD, 8-2 or 9-1?

GL on your NFL picks!

StarnetGypsy · 10-15-2006, 04:59 PM

Durn. Got an email from Sarge this a/m, and it seems eventho he took his laptop w/the program on it, he also packed the wrong power pack. Battery ran down, poof!

Said he be back in a couple weeks.

I really hate to blank him this week, so I will continue his average after the results of his next set of picks.

I've also decided to continue taking dot.com ads on my network instead of just dot.net ads. My operation is in Cr and the servers are in Canada, so until the Queen renegs on the regulation in the UK, I'm good to go.

I'm too old to become a whoosie now an buckle to the unfair dictates of an anal retentive congress.

GL to everyone on their picks today and MNF! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

StarnetGypsy · 10-15-2006, 08:36 PM

Looks like one of those weeks where I shoulda picked a team then bet the opposite [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

Bengals -240 LOSS
@ Bucs

Eagles -180 LOSS
@ Saints

@ Jets -135 WIN
Dolphins

@ Steelers -330 WIN
Chiefs

Well, at least my Hawks won in St Louie, but they shoulda lost after fumbling the ball on the SL 8/yd line. Gettin tired of these backs who don't cover the ball like Jim Brown used to. He cradled that ball w/both arms like it was his first born. Don't suppose Holmgren coulda told him that they only needed a FG to lock it up so simply go down when you're touched, but noooooo, he keeps fighting for yards until he's stipped.

Leave it to me to complain after a W, but it's all those little things that're overlooked that lose games for ya. Oh, and shoving the QB down to the ground when he's trying to get up? Makes ya wonder if the guy was dropped on his head as a baby ... and I'm beginning to doubt even fining them heavily will get thru those thick skulls?

Looks like I could blank just like Sarge this week, and I showed up LOL [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-blush.gif[/img]

StarnetGypsy · 10-20-2006, 09:34 PM

Oklee-doklee, got an email from Sarge, and like all of us who pack in a hurry for trips he blew-it, he packed the wrong power cord for his laptop which has his football program on it. So, he wont be reporting back in until Week 8.

Out of fairness for his lack of making picks, I'm counting his Week 5 picks, and then picking them up again in Week 8.

Sarge's Computer Week 5 = 25% (Avg 25%)
- - - -
SG's picks Week 5 = 100% (Avg 100%)
SG's picks Week 6 = 50% (Avg 75%)
SG's picks Week 7 =

For Week 7, I am doing a 3/tmr lines pick and a 4/tmr ML pick. I'm buying .5 pts on a couple of the lines, not doing any O/U's because eventho I hit daa Bears last week on the ML vs Az, I got killed on the Under (who'da thunk those teams'd hit the O?), and since the Seahawks are my home team, I refuse to bet the -6.5 because they give up when ahead (Holmgren), and usually win by a FG, so I'm takin' them on the ML.

Because the Bengals lost LT Jones & WR Washington this past weekend and Carson is still rusty, I'm looking for a healthy Delhomme, Smith & Keyshawn to take the Cats to victory in the Jungle.

Cards & Raiders may be the worst 2/teams in the NFL, but w/Leinart pitchin to Anquan, and Edgerrin runnin' strong, I'm looking for the Raiders' Moss to still run the wrong direction, and Jordon to keep fumbling.

Seattle's receiving corp is healthy, and Hasselbeck has thrown 9TD's this season, compared to Brad Johnson's 2TD's. Even w/o Alexander I expect the Hawks to handle the Vikes, just not by a TD.

My picks (Only the 1st parlay will count to my average):

(3/tmr parlay - 3x)

Cardinals -2.5 (-140)
Raiders
Bought 0.5 point(s)

Panthers +3.5 (-130)
Bengals
Bought 0.5 point(s)

Seahawks ML -300
Vikings

----------------------

(4/tmr ML - 3x)

Cardinals ML -165
Raiders
Jaguars ML -480
Texans
Seahawks ML -300
Vikings
Cowboys ML -190
Giants

And as always, these are only 'fantasy picks' for fun since none of us here really gamble online.

GL to all this weekend!

StarnetGypsy · 10-25-2006, 06:55 AM

Well Halleluiah! Sarge is finally back home in Japan, and has his 'puter picks for Week 8.
- - - - - - - - - - - -

Well the good news. While I was gone, "puter would have only picked two games and they broke even. Here are the picks for week 8.

ATL +4.5
CIN

BAL +2
NO

DAL +5.5
CAR

I also looked at the futures available on Week 9 at Yahoo.

DAL +1 vs WASH. Get some of this. Dallas should win this week and I expect they will be the favorite next week.

BAL -1 vs CIN. This one was a suprise. Since 'puter picks BAL to win this week and CIN to lose to ATL this might be a good bet. If 'puter is correct this week this line will move in favor of CIN.

KC +3.5 vs SL. I must be missing something here too? 'puter really likes KC here. KC could lose as the favorite this week in SEA so this line may actually shift. I'll wait on this game.

NO +1 vs Tampa. This is another one that I expect a shift in so this is a wait and see, also. The bookies definitely believe that NO can't beat TB twice in one season.

GL
Sarge
- - - - - - - - - - - -

I need a 3/bagger to bring my Avg back up to a respectable 80%, so here goes nothin!

Jets +1.5
Browns

Colts +2.5
Broncs

Pack -2.5 (Buying .05/pt because Favre <u>never</u> covers) [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]
Cards

Below are the percentage standings to date for Sarge's 'puter and my gut picks. Out of courtesy to Sarge I didn't give him goose-eggs for the 2/weeks he was outta town w/his laptop not workin.

Sarge's Computer Week 5 = 25% (Avg 25%)
Sarge's Computer Week 8 =
- - - -
SG's picks Week 5 = 100% (Avg 100%)
SG's picks Week 6 = 50% (Avg 75%)
SG's picks Week 7 = 33% (Avg 61%)
SG's picks Week 8 =

Good luck to everyone this week in MLB & NFL, and above all else, ENJOY!